Flash Flood Warning 157, NWS Memphis, TN

619 
WGUS74 KMEG 261914
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
114 PM CST MON DEC 26 2016

ARC021-055-MOC069-155-262115-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.W.0157.000000T0000Z-161226T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Clay AR-Greene AR-Pemiscot MO-Dunklin MO-
114 PM CST MON DEC 26 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CST FOR
EASTERN CLAY...NORTHEASTERN GREENE...NORTHWESTERN PEMISCOT AND
EASTERN DUNKLIN COUNTIES...

At 112 PM CST, Doppler Radar detected scattered thunderstorms with
heavy rain from southeast of Piggott, to east of Campbell. Movement
was northeast at 35 mph.

Although the widespread heavy rain that prompted the warning has
moved out of the area, runoff from the earlier rain will continue
the threat of flooding.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Kennett, Piggott, Campbell, Rector, Senath, Marmaduke, Chalk Bluff
Natural Area, Malden, Clarkton, Oak Grove Heights, Holcomb, St.
Francis, Pollard, Greenway, Saint Francis, Crockett, Bragg City,
Nimmons, Fritz and West Kennett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3656 8996 3645 8996 3639 8997 3638 8982
      3615 8999 3612 9051 3650 9024 3650 9022
      3652 9022 3654 9021 3654 9020 3655 9020
      3654 9019 3655 9019

$$

WOODALL

447 
WGUS74 KMEG 262043
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
243 PM CST MON DEC 26 2016

ARC021-055-MOC069-155-262115-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.W.0157.000000T0000Z-161226T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Clay AR-Greene AR-Pemiscot MO-Dunklin MO-
243 PM CST MON DEC 26 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CST FOR
EASTERN CLAY...NORTHEASTERN GREENE...NORTHWESTERN PEMISCOT AND
EASTERN DUNKLIN COUNTIES...

At 241 PM CST, Doppler Radar detected showers and thunderstorms
moving back into the warning area...from west of Campbell to west of
Marmaduke. These storms will produce an additional 3/4 inch of rain
as they move across.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Kennett, Piggott, Campbell, Rector, Senath, Marmaduke, Chalk Bluff
Natural Area, Malden, Clarkton, Oak Grove Heights, Holcomb, St.
Francis, Pollard, Greenway, Saint Francis, Crockett, Bragg City,
Nimmons, Fritz and West Kennett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3656 8996 3645 8996 3639 8997 3638 8982
      3615 8999 3612 9051 3650 9024 3650 9022
      3652 9022 3654 9021 3654 9020 3655 9020
      3654 9019 3655 9019

$$

WOODALL

060 
WGUS74 KMEG 262118
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
318 PM CST MON DEC 26 2016

ARC021-055-MOC069-155-262127-
/O.EXP.KMEG.FF.W.0157.000000T0000Z-161226T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Clay AR-Greene AR-Pemiscot MO-Dunklin MO-
318 PM CST MON DEC 26 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN CLAY...NORTHEASTERN GREENE...
NORTHWESTERN PEMISCOT AND EASTERN DUNKLIN COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

Although the warning has expired, showers and thunderstorms will
continue in northeast Arkansas through much of the afternoon.

If you see water crossing the road, remember...turn around, don't
drown.

LAT...LON 3656 8996 3645 8996 3639 8997 3638 8982
      3615 8999 3612 9051 3650 9024 3650 9022
      3652 9022 3654 9021 3654 9020 3655 9020
      3654 9019 3655 9019

$$

WOODALL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1147 AM CST Mon Dec 26 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated for 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /958 AM CST Mon Dec 26 2016/

 A quasi-stationary band of showers and thunderstorms will
continue to affect northeast AR over the next several hours,
providing localized heavy rainfall to areas north and west of
Jonesboro.
This activity is expected to eventually begin moving southeast as
a cold front to the west overtakes this convection during the
afternoon and evening hours. Rainfall chances were trimmed back
over the southeast half of the CWA today and ramped up over the
northwest.

A few strong storms aren't out of the question this afternoon,
especially west of the Mississippi River. CAPE values do not look
substantial, but moderate effective shear may support organized
convection capable of gusty winds. The bigger threat, at least in
the near term, is the potential for localized flooding due to the
training of these convective cells. MRMS QPE indicates a narrow
band of 1-2" of rain already over western Clay County. However,
once this convection begins to shift to the southeast, this threat
should diminish somewhat.

In addition to the PoP update, temperature were adjusted slightly
upward in a few areas for this afternoon and winds were increased
a bit. Many areas are gusting between 20-30 mph, with a few higher
gusts.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 AM CST Mon Dec 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Skies are cloudy over much of the forecast area early this morning
with temperatures in the 60s. A few light rain showers are moving
across mainly northern sections of the forecast area at this time.
A cold front was currently extending from central Iowa through
western Missouri and into central Texas.

As the cold front continues to move east today, it should get
close to the forecast area by this evening. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front and move
across the forecast area. There could be a strong thunderstorm
that moves across portions of eastern Arkansas or the Missouri
bootheel. Temperatures will remain well above normal today with
highs in the low to mid 70s. By tonight, the cold front will start
to move across the forecast area and should be across north
Mississippi by Tuesday morning. This will mean more showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front. Cooler air will start to move
into the region behind the front with lows Tuesday morning in the
mid 40s to mid 50s. The cold front will continue to move south of
Tuesday so there will still be a chance of rain over southern
sections of the forecast area. Temperatures will be some 15 to 20
degrees cooler than today with highs mainly in the 50s. By Tuesday
night, high pressure will briefly settle over the region bringing
a period of dry weather. Temperatures will be close to normal
levels with lows Wednesday morning in the lower 30s to around 40
degrees.

On Wednesday, the front will move back north as a warm front. As a
result, more showers will return to the forecast area.
Temperatures will warm up some on Wednesday with highs in the mid
50s to lower 60s. On Wednesday night, a new cold front will sweep
through the region bringing more showers to the forecast area.
This front will be well east of the forecast area by Thursday
morning with rain ending over eastern sections in the morning.
Cooler air will return to the region with temperatures returning
to more seasonal levels.

High pressure will build into the region by Thursday night
bringing dry weather and seasonal temperatures for Thursday night
and much of Friday. A weak warm front will move through the
region on Saturday. More rain is expected to move through the
forecast area starting late Friday night and continuing through
much of the last day of 2016. Another cold front will approach the
region on New Years Day with more rain expected.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFs/

Surface front and band of SHRA/TSRA moving slowly SE across NE AR.
Latest HRRR runs look to have a good handle on movement and timing.
The band should reach KJBR area around 19-20Z, KMEM around 27/01-
02Z, KMKL roughly 27/02-03Z, and KTUP around 27/08-09Z.

Ahead of SHRA/TSRA, cigs should drop to lower MVFR/IFR with
southerly winds continuing. Cigs and vsbys to further drop at sites
as SHRA/TSRA band moves across, with variable/gusty winds in TSRA.
Surface front passage will bring an end to the TSRA, turn winds to
the north, and bring gradually improving cigs.

GW

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
910 AM CST MON DEC 26 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-271200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
910 AM CST MON DEC 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1158 AM CST MON DEC 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1149 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MARMADUKE               36.19N 90.39W
12/26/2016  U0.00 INCH       GREENE             AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            LOW WATER CROSSINGS FLOODED AROUND MARMADUKE DUE TO HEAVY
            RAINFALL.

&&

AJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1217 PM CST MON DEC 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1152 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NW OAK GROVE HEIGHTS  36.14N 90.53W
12/26/2016                   GREENE             AR   911 CALL CENTER

            WATERING COVERING THE ROAD ON HIGHWAY 34 WEST.

&&

AJC