Flash Flood Warning 144, NWS Memphis, TN

937 
WGUS74 KMEG 151854
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
154 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

ARC021-075-121-151904-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0144.000000T0000Z-160815T1915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAWRENCE AR-CLAY AR-RANDOLPH AR-
154 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR LAWRENCE...NORTHWESTERN CLAY AND
RANDOLPH COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

FLOOD WATERS HAVE RECEDED. FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A
THREAT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY REMAINING ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3650 9141 3650 9054 3627 9074 3626 9081
      3619 9081 3589 9108 3589 9136 3623 9135
      3624 9126 3633 9126 3633 9128 3637 9128
      3639 9131 3642 9131 3642 9135 3647 9136

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
643 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 12Z TAF Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change in the forecast tonight. Cloudy skies...seasonably
mild temperatures and periods of rain showers are expected again
today...and will remain in the forecast for several days.

Early morning temperatures are in the low to middle 70s under
cloudy skies. Morning lows are expected to be in the low to middle
70s. A few light rain showers are tracking toward the north across
East Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Heavier showers are
occurring across central Arkansas...also tracking to the
north...although the larger weather system is slowly shifting
East.

The main concern is the potential for additional flooding in
Northeast Arkansas. Over four inches of rain has fallen across the
region resulting in multiple road closures. Any additional
rainfall could easily exaggerate ongoing problems or result in
additional problems. Three hour Flash flood guidance in the region
is generally between one and two inches. Rainfall rates in excess
of one inch per hour are very likely as atmospheric moisture
levels remain elevated. Elsewhere across the Midsouth...Three hour Flash
Flood Guidance is in the 3-4 inch range...so flooding is less
likely.

Today should be nearly a carbon copy of yesterday. High
temperatures will be below normal...mostly in the middle to upper
80s. East Arkansas should see the most rainfall. As a result
Temperatures may be a few degrees cooler than the remainder of the
Midsouth.

A weak positively tilted trough over the Central Plains and
associated surface front will shift slowly to the East tomorrow
through midweek. As a result...the focus for rain showers will
shift closer to the Mississippi River. Rain chances will remain
above normal through the week...with the highest chances Tuesday
into Wednesday. The threat of severe thunderstorms looks minimal.
However...depending on how much rain accumulates over the next 48
hours...the threat of flooding may shift out of Arkansas across
the remainder of the Midsouth.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs

MVFR conditions exist this morning at KMEM and KJBR due to low
ceilings while even lower CIGs at KTUP have resulted in IFR
flight categories. Conditions will begin to improve at most sites
in a few hours except for KJBR where MVFR conditions are likely
throughout the day due to low ceilings and -RA. Showers will be in
the vicinity of KMEM, KMKL, KTUP this afternoon. The best chances
of showers will exist in the sites along and west of the MS River.
Winds will be gusty and from the south today before subsiding
tonight.

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Clay-Lawrence-
     Randolph.

MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
357 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-161100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
357 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS....AND MAY SPREAD ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDWEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.