Excessive Heat Warning 3, NWS Memphis, TN

Clay County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Greene County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Lee County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Randolph County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Coahoma County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Panola County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Dyer County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Obion County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Tipton County, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1121 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...Water Vapor Satellite trends this morning place an
open wave shortwave trough over portions of western
Kentucky and Tennessee this morning. Showers and thunderstorms
developed overnight in response to this mid level synoptic
feature. This activity has been decreasing in coverage over the
past couple of hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are still
possible this afternoon into early evening.

Meanwhile, some moisture pooling has been occurring across areas
along and west of the Mississippi River this morning with surface
dewpoints averaging in the middle to upper 70s. These high
dewpoints combined with very hot temperatures into the upper 90s
have necessitated an upgrade of the Heat Advisory into an
Excessive Heat Warning across portions of East Arkansas,
Northwest Mississippi, and Southwest Tennessee until early this
evening as heat index values are anticipated to reach or exceed
110 degrees. Will update forecast to adjust convective chances
accordingly and any other elements as needed. Otherwise, forecast
overall in good shape at this time. Heat headlines will continued
to be monitored for the next few hours for any additional
adjustments if needed.

Updated grids will be available shortly.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Updated the Aviation Discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Skies are mostly clear across much of the forecast area early this
morning in the 70s to around 80 degrees. Some light showers and
isolated thunderstorms are moving across portions of west
Tennessee at this time and this activity is weakening as it moves
southeast.

A weak upper level disturbance will move across central Kentucky
today which may trigger a few thunderstorms over eastern sections
of the forecast area. Temperatures will be on the hot side again
today with highs in the low to mid 90s. Heat index values will
once again exceed 105 degrees over most of the forecast area and a
Heat Advisory remains in effect. There appears to be little in
the way of triggers for thunderstorm development tonight so most
areas should remain dry with some isolated thunderstorms possible
over sections of northeast Mississippi. Temperatures will remain
quite warm with lows in the 70s to around 80 degrees.

Friday should be another typical hot summer day with isolated
thunderstorms. Temperatures will be even a little warmer with
highs in the mid to upper 90s. A weak cold front will start to
approach the region from the north which may trigger a few
thunderstorms over northern sections of the forecast area.

The cold front will get closer to the region on Saturday. More
thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front and this
activity should reach parts of the forecast area. Temperatures
will not be quite as hot as Friday with highs in the low to mid
90s. The front will start to fall apart Saturday night with some
thunderstorms still possible for Saturday night and Sunday.

The extended portion of the forecast from Sunday night through
Wednesday looks to remain rather hot with an isolated thunderstorm
possible at times.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

For 12Z TAFs

VFR conditions should be predominate over the next 24 hours. Have
VCTS in for Jackson, Tennessee, and Tupelo, Mississippi for this
afternoon. It is possible that the other two sites may have a
showers/thunderstorms around, yet think it is not likely. Winds
generally light.  TLSJr

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for Clay-Craighead-Greene-
     Lawrence-Mississippi-Poinsett-Randolph.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     Crittenden-Cross-Lee AR-Phillips-St. Francis.

     Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Friday for
     Crittenden-Cross-Lee AR-Phillips-St. Francis.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for Alcorn-Benton MS-Calhoun-
     Chickasaw-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-Marshall-Monroe-
     Pontotoc-Prentiss-Tippah-Tishomingo-Union-Yalobusha.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coahoma-
     DeSoto-Panola-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tunica.

     Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Friday for
     Coahoma-DeSoto-Panola-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tunica.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for Chester-Crockett-Dyer-
     Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-Haywood-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Tipton.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for Shelby.

     Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Friday for
     Shelby.

&&

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