Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
541 PM CDT WED OCT 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail tonight.  However, fog may form over the
Permian Basin into southeast New Mexico by 06/12Z and affect KHOB,
if not KMAF through 06/15Z.  Will make a cursory mention at KHOB
with MVFR visibility between 06/11Z and 06/15Z, but leave KMAF out
at this time since it does not look very likely to occur there.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 145 PM CDT WED OCT 5 2016/

A dryline is mixing east toward the eastern Permian Basin
and lower Trans Pecos region again late this afternoon.
Would not rule out an isolated thunderstorm this evening
ahead of the line in the unstable air as the flow aloft
backs some as an upper level trough digs across the central
Rockies.

More significant unsettled weather is expected to begin by
Thursday and continue into the weekend as a large upper level
trough evolves and digs across the western half of the nation.
Southwest flow aloft will continue Thursday and forcing for
ascent will increase ahead of the upper trough in the right rear
quadrant of the upper jet above the surface trough/dryline. The
chance of thunderstorms will increase Thursday across mainly west
Texas east of the dryline.

This upper level trough will allow a cold front to surge south
late Thursday night and Friday into Mexico. This will keep the
threat of thunderstorms in the forecast for mainly west Texas
Thursday night where the better moisture and instability will
reside.

Behind this front below normal temperatures are expected
Friday through the weekend as a large surface high pressure
system builds south into the region from Canada. In the
meantime a weakening southern stream upper low is expected to
take shape, eject and weaken as it moves across the southwest
United States. There will be a chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms in this pattern with the best chance across
southeast New Mexico and western portions of west Texas
closest to the weakening system.

Dry with above normal temperatures are expected to return by
next Monday through Wednesday and Tuesday as the system washes
out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  88  61  66 /  10  20  30  40
Carlsbad                       53  88  58  64 /   0  10  10  30
Dryden                         69  89  69  82 /  10  20   0  40
Fort Stockton                  66  90  61  73 /  10  30  20  40
Guadalupe Pass                 61  82  53  62 /   0   0  10  30
Hobbs                          59  85  52  63 /   0  10  20  30
Marfa                          57  84  55  71 /  10  30  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           66  88  60  69 /  10  20  20  40
Odessa                         67  87  61  66 /  10  20  20  40
Wink                           64  91  63  71 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

49/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
120 PM CDT WED OCT 5 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-061830-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
120 PM CDT WED OCT 5 2016 /1220 PM MDT WED OCT 5 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST AND FAR SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM INTERSTATE 20 NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
813 PM CDT WED OCT 5 2016

TXZ048-060200-
SCURRY TX-
813 PM CDT WED OCT 5 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SCURRY COUNTY UNTIL 900
PM CDT...

AT 812 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CHINA GROVE...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SNYDER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SNYDER...CHINA GROVE...HERMLEIGH...DUNN...US-180 NEAR THE FISHER-
SCURRY COUNTY LINE AND MIDWAY.

LAT...LON 3252 10074 3253 10090 3258 10099 3292 10078
      3284 10066 3258 10066
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 219DEG 17KT 3259 10085

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