Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
552 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Tempo VFR conditions in
thunderstorms with brief gusty and variable winds are expected
this evening at a majority of the terminals. Will monitor for
possible amendments. South to southwest winds of 5 to 15 mph are
expected the next 24 hours.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Given anomalously high moisture content in the atmosphere courtesy
of now Tropical Storm Newton, as well as temperatures rising
into the 80s and 90s this afternoon, it feels unusually muggy
across the region. Today's 12Z/7AM CDT sounding indicated 1.8
inches of precipitable water over the region, which is not only
nearly 3 standard deviations above normal, but also a new record
high precipitable water value for this date (previously 1.75
inches). Visible satellite imagery indicates clearing (and
subsequent development of a cumulus field) from the eastern
Permian Basin southwestward to the Big Bend Area, with cirrus
lingering across southeast New Mexico, the Upper Trans Pecos, and
western Permian Basin from earlier convection. Given the amount
of available moisture, convection has already begun to develop
over the higher terrain, and will be possible across most of the
area through this evening. Storms could linger into the overnight
hours, potentially redeveloping along outflow boundaries, with
the best chance for showers and thunderstorms along and west of a
line from roughly Gail to Fort Stockton to Lajitas. The primary
threat accompanying storms will be heavy rainfall, which could
result in some localized flooding concerns, particularly in areas
that have received recent rainfall as well as low lying areas and
those with poor drainage. Lows tonight will be mild, ranging from
the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Southwesterly flow aloft will continue the next few days, as the
region remains between a deepening western CONUS trough and high
pressure in place across the southeast. Thus, moisture from Newton
will become entrained in a SW-NE oriented shear axis through
this weekend, though given a lack of forcing, only slight chance
to low chance PoPs are warranted for Thursday and Friday. After a
couple days of warmer temperatures Thursday and Friday, a change
is on the way Saturday, as a cold front is progged to move south
through the area. There is still a bit of discrepancy in timing,
though the front looks to push through the region Saturday
morning/early afternoon, with breezy northeasterly winds in its
wake. Models continue to generate ample QPF with the front, though
the highest QPF values look to be focused over the Western Low
Rolling Plains into the Big Country where convergence will be
enhanced. However, have maintained chance PoPs areawide, as the
amount of available moisture will increase the potential for
convection, despite the timing of the front being less than ideal
for widespread storm development. Either way, temperatures
Saturday look to drop well below normal for this time of year,
with highs ranging from the mid 70s north to around 90 degrees
across far southern zones. Temperatures will moderate back toward
normal on Sunday and Monday, with a lull in precipitation for much
of the area. Another stronger front is progged to move through the
area in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame, which will bring the
next opportunity for widespread precipitation as well as cooler
temperatures. Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  93  73  94 /  20  20  20  20
Carlsbad                       68  89  68  93 /  30  20  10  10
Dryden                         75  94  74  95 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  69  90  71  92 /  30  20  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 61  80  65  86 /  30  20  10  10
Hobbs                          67  87  66  91 /  30  20  10  10
Marfa                          64  83  59  85 /  30  30  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           72  92  73  94 /  30  20  20  20
Odessa                         73  91  73  93 /  30  20  20  20
Wink                           71  92  72  95 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

70/84

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
306 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-082015-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
306 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016 /206 PM MDT WED SEP 7 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES EXTENDING FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS
NORTHEAST INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. HAZARDS INCLUDE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN RESULTING IN FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS, WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH, AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
713 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

TXZ050-061-068-080100-
ANDREWS TX-ECTOR TX-CRANE TX-
713 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CRANE...EASTERN
ANDREWS AND ECTOR COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 712 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
GOLDSMITH...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF WEST ODESSA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ODESSA...ANDREWS...WEST ODESSA...GOLDSMITH...PENWELL...ODESSA SCHELEMEYER
FIELD...ANDREWS COUNTY AIRPORT...PLEASANT FARMS AND NORTH COWDEN.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 95 AND 118.

LAT...LON 3164 10269 3235 10268 3251 10233 3149 10234
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 268DEG 20KT 3196 10252

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