Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1224 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over the higher
terrain and adjacent plains this afternoon, and could affect CNM,
HOB, and PEQ. For now, have included TEMPO TSRA at CNM where
confidence is highest, though will continue to monitor trends and
amend as needed. Potential MVFR conditions in heavy rain,
lightning, and gusty winds are the main concerns. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will continue the next 24 hours with elevated southeast
winds which should diminish somewhat overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
As of 00Z/02 the center of the subtropical ridge was INVOF SE TX
with some evidence of a minor weakness in the mid level height
fields across W TX. The circulation assocd with subtropical ridge is
expansive enuf such that the SE mid level flow will keep the more
moisture laden parts of the atmosphere positioned mostly along and w
of the mtns in TX/NM. The subtropical ridge will build wwd Wed/Thur
and as such the theta-e ridge axis will tend to remain w, favoring
isold-sct tstms in/near the mtns. SB LI's across the PB look to be
mostly around -1 to +1 during max heating and without a surface
boundary there is little hope for precip thru Thur. 85h temperatures
will increase a few degrees each afternoon so we expect that
widespread triple digit readings will be the rule thru Thur. By
Fri/Sat the ridge will tend to develop newd INVOF OK/AR which will
not change the dry forecast, but it could result in high temperatures
a couple of degrees cooler (at most).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75 101  75 102 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       73  99  74 100 /  20  20  20  10
Dryden                         77  99  76 100 /   0  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  75  99  75 100 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 68  92  69  93 /  40  20  20  20
Hobbs                          68  96  72  97 /  20  10  10  10
Marfa                          64  92  65  93 /  20  20  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           75 101  75 102 /   0  10  10   0
Odessa                         76 100  77 101 /   0  10  10  10
Wink                           75 102  75 102 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
308 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-030815-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
308 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016 /208 AM MDT TUE AUG 2 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS. GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS. IN ADDITION...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WILL OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER YOU CAN
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER WHEN THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DECREASE BUT CONTINUE FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.

OTHERWISE...THE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OVER WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO IS LOW THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
130 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

TXZ074-081-021915-
BIG BEND AREA TX-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA TX-
130 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BREWSTER COUNTY
UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 130 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ALPINE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALPINE AND ALPINE-CASPARIS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3054 10361 3040 10338 3022 10359 3032 10379
      3041 10379
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 118DEG 11KT 3040 10361

84