Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
828 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated the forecast to increase PoPs through midnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Convection has been more persistant than was expected earlier
today. A strong outflow boundary has developed and is passing
through the area providing enough lift to maintain convection.
Therefore have increased PoPs through this evening, especially in
the eastern zones where moisture is deepest. Activity should
diminish after midnight.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 557 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. A couple of surface troughs
are expected to produce a few thunderstorms across portions of
southeast New Mexico and the northwest Permian Basin and along
and just east of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains this evening.
Confidence was not high enough to mention at any of the terminals,
however. Activity should diminish by late this evening. More
storms possible Friday afternoon in similar areas. Winds will
generally be southeast at 10 to 20 mph and gusty at times.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 246 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over the U.S./Mexico
border, from the west coast into Texas, resulting in another
afternoon of triple-digit highs across much of West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  Today marks day 12 of KMAF's 38-day
climatological peak, but a little relief may be on the way over the
next few days as the ridge dislodges from its current position.
Models don't move it much over the next 48 hours, but do begin
bringing thicknesses down after today, for a downward trend in
temps. Therefore, the Heat Advisory will be allowed to expire this
evening as scheduled, and it does not look to be required thru the
extended.

After around 48 hours, an upper trough begins digging into the NW
CONUS, and this will push the ridge east, to the Arklatex by Sunday
night, and then to the Texas/OK Panhandles by midweek.  Not only
will thicknesses continue to decrease thru this time before
leveling out, but sfc flow will back a little as easterlies take
hold, allowing temps most areas to drop below the century mark
Monday into the extended.  Temps should remain above-normal,
however.

Unfortunately, chances of rain remain slim-to-none.  The low-lvl
theta-e ridge will continue to orient SW-NE over the region the
next couple of days, assisting diurnal convection in upslope flow
over the higher terrain each afternoon. but models weaken or
dissolve this feature after 48 hours or so, so the extended looks
dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77 103  74 101 /  40  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       74 102  73 102 /  20  20  20  10
Dryden                         78  98  74  97 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  77 102  76 101 /  20  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 75  98  72  97 /  20  20  20  10
Hobbs                          74  98  72  99 /  20  10  20   0
Marfa                          64  97  65  96 /  20  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           78 103  76 102 /  30  10  10   0
Odessa                         79 101  77 101 /  30  10  10   0
Wink                           77 104  76 103 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

12/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
128 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-151830-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
128 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 /1228 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR THE
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS, WESTERN AND CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN,
PARTS OF THE TRANS PECOS, DAVIS AND APACHE MOUNTAINS, AND BIG
BEND AREA.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND MARFA PLATEAU, WITH MORE ISOLATED STORMS
FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN
PERMIAN BASIN.  THE GREATEST CONCERN WITH STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
801 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

TXZ050-051-061-062-150130-
ANDREWS TX-ECTOR TX-MARTIN TX-MIDLAND TX-
801 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ANDREWS...
NORTHWESTERN MIDLAND...NORTHEASTERN ECTOR AND SOUTHWESTERN MARTIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 800 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES NORTHWEST OF MIDLAND...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MIDLAND...MIDLAND INTERNATIONAL AIR AND SPACE PORT AND MIDLAND
AIRPARK.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 132 AND 144.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3193 10204 3197 10237 3227 10230 3218 10211
      3207 10196
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 028DEG 31KT 3216 10226

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
804 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0737 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WNW TARZAN            32.32N 102.01W
07/14/2016  M61 MPH          MARTIN             TX   MESONET

&&

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
818 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 E ANDREWS             32.32N 102.51W
07/14/2016  M58 MPH          ANDREWS            TX   MESONET

&&

DH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
830 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

TXZ062-150215-
MIDLAND TX-
830 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MIDLAND COUNTY UNTIL
915 PM CDT...

AT 829 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
GREENWOOD...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENWOOD AND SPRABERRY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 146 AND 148.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3178 10190 3179 10204 3194 10203 3208 10195
      3207 10183 3199 10178 3180 10180
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 240DEG 34KT 3200 10192

12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
841 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

TXZ060-150215-
WINKLER TX-
841 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WINKLER COUNTY UNTIL
915 PM CDT...

AT 841 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
KERMIT...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KERMIT AND WINK.

LAT...LON 3195 10318 3198 10297 3168 10289 3167 10317
TIME...MOT...LOC 0141Z 351DEG 34KT 3189 10307

12