Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
215 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is approaching the Pacific Northwest, and the
southcentral and southeast conus is under somewhat weak ridging
aloft with an upper low/shortwave moving over the Upper Midwest.
Thunderstorms are possible today across much of the area since low
level moisture has moved westward toward southeast New Mexico and
the higher terrain.  Surface CAPE values are expected to be around
2,000 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates will be around 8 to 9 degrees
C/km according to the NAM12.  The NAM80 also indicates a minor
shortwave moving over the area this afternoon as shown on the 500 mb
omega values.  Due to these conditions, severe thunderstorms will be
possible across the area this afternoon and evening.  SPC has much
of the CWA in a marginal outlook for today. Zero to six km bulk
shear may only get up to 30 kts so this will limit severe
thunderstorm potential.  Temperatures this afternoon are again
expected to be hot but may be a degree or two cooler than
yesterday due to an increase in moisture.

The upper ridge will continue to build over the central conus on
Thursday as the shortwave previously over the Upper Midwest moves
southeastward.  This strengthening of the ridge will limit
thunderstorm development to the Davis Mountains and higher terrain
for Thursday afternoon.  The ridge will be slightly stronger over
the area on Friday allowing for temperatures to warm up even more
and further decrease precipitation chances.  Conditions on Saturday
will be very similar to those on Friday with temperatures in the
triple digits most places and no rain expected.  The upper ridge
will begin to get somewhat flattened on Sunday resulting in slightly
cooler temperatures.  Temperatures are expected to cool into the mid
90s across the Permian Basin Monday through Wednesday of next week
with no precipitation expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74  99  74 102 /  20  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       68 103  67 105 /  20  10  10   0
Dryden                         76  99  75 101 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  73 101  73 103 /  40  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 69  96  71  98 /  20  10   0   0
Hobbs                          69  99  69 102 /  30  10  10   0
Marfa                          63  93  62  96 /  50  20  20   0
Midland Intl Airport           74 101  74 103 /  30  10  10  10
Odessa                         74 100  75 103 /  40  10  10  10
Wink                           74 103  74 107 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

10/80

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
140 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-161845-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
140 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 /1240 PM MDT WED JUN 15 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE STRONGER STORMS
COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER IF PLANNING TO BE
OUTSIDE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

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