Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
230 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level shortwave trough is over the Northern Plains which is
rotating around an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest.  This
upper pattern has put the CWA under southwest flow aloft with a
dryline across the Western Low Rolling Plains, eastern Permian
Basin, and the Lower Trans Pecos.  The NAM12 has surface CAPE values
near 5,000 J/Kg this afternoon east of the dryline and mid-level
lapse rates of 7 to 8 degrees Celsius/km.  However, the zero to six
km bulk shear is only 25 to 30 kts and there isn't much in the way
of upper level lift except for a weak shortwave that may move near
the area this afternoon.  Other models, such as the GFS, are
indicating CAPE values only near 2,000 J/kg this afternoon.  There
is a possibility that a few severe storms may develop despite some
of the conditions being less favorable for severe weather.  Do not
expect any severe storms to be long lasting due to the lack of wind
shear. SPC has highlighted the Western Low Rolling Plains and
eastern Permian Basin in a slight risk for today.  Temperatures this
afternoon are expected to be about 10 degrees above normal with many
places experiencing triple digit readings.

The upper ridge builds a little more over the region on Wednesday as
the previously mentioned shortwave moves over the Great Lakes area.
Despite the upper ridge getting stronger, low-level moisture will
move further west Wednesday afternoon.  Conditions tomorrow will be
fairly similar to today within the moist air so a few severe storms
will again be possible tomorrow as far west as the western Permian
Basin, portions of Lea County, the Upper Trans Pecos, and the Davis
Mountains. Temperatures tomorrow will likewise be similar except
maybe a few degrees cooler than today.  The upper ridge builds
slightly more over the central conus on Thursday but the low-level
moisture remains in place.  Thunderstorms will again be possible
Thursday afternoon but it looks like coverage will not be as
widespread with convection mostly remaining confined to the
Davis/Apache Mountains and perhaps portions of Lea County and the
northwest Permian Basin due to the ridge having more of an
influence.  The upper ridge will continue to build and have
influence over the region through the end of the week with any
precipitation chances confined to the mountains and temperatures
increasing back into the triple digits for a large portion of the
CWA.  The upper ridge appears to become more flattened during the
early part of next week as upper troughs move over the Northern
Plains.  This will result in temperatures cooling into the mid
to upper 90s for the early part of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74  99  73  99 /  20  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       67 104  69 103 /  10  20  20  10
Dryden                         76  99  75  99 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  74 100  73 100 /  20  40  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 70  95  69  97 /   0  20  20  10
Hobbs                          67 100  70 100 /  10  40  20  20
Marfa                          65  92  64  94 /  20  60  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           74  99  73 100 /  10  30  10  10
Odessa                         74  99  73 100 /  10  30  10  10
Wink                           74 103  74 104 /  10  50  20  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

67/80

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
200 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-151900-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
200 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 /100 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MAINLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN SOUTHWEST TO THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION THE STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY ALONG
AND WEST OF A SNYDER...BIG SPRING...RANKIN...BAKERSFIELD...BOQUILLAS
CANYON LINE. SOME STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.

VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER IF PLANNING TO BE
OUTSIDE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

TXZ075-150000-
PECOS TX-
621 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM
CDT...

AT 621 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 26
MILES NORTH OF LONGFELLOW...OR 28 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT STOCKTON...
MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL PECOS
COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3049 10253 3050 10270 3087 10275 3082 10229
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 195DEG 14KT 3054 10263

49