Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1228 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are widespread attm with only BKN250 at most sites.
MVFR CIGS are possible at MAF/HOB before sunrise per MOS, but less
compelling on soundings. A more likely scenario seems to be brief
MVFR CIGS after sunrise then mixing out. Models are insisting
precip will develop early this AM, possibly in assocn with MCV
noted on satellite between LBB/ABI? For now have omitted PoPs even
this PM. If precip does develop this AM that could inhibit
convective chances this PM and vice versa. It will be on the windy
side from the SE today with gust to around or just over 25kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 541 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and
southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours as a weak upper
level disturbance remains nearly stationary across north central
Texas. A few thunderstorms are currently in the west Texas
mountains and immediate adjacent Plains. Based on computer
guidance and latest trends, confidence was not high that they
would move close to any of the terminals this evening before
dissipating, so did not mention at any of the terminals. Later
tonight an upper level disturbance may spark a round of thunderstorms
across the eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos region so
placed a prob 30 group for MVFR conditions in tsra at KMAF and
prob 30 group for VFR conditions at KFST in the 10z to 15z
Saturday timeframe. Winds are generally expected to be southeast
at 10 to 20 mph and gusty for much of the TAF period.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 219 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will be the dominant weather feature to affect the
region during the next 7 days.  Currently, a weak upper low/MCV is
trapped under the ridge and will meander over the region through
Saturday before being drawn northeastward away from the region by
increasing southwesterly flow aloft ahead of an upper trough
progged to take shape over the western ConUS.  Temperatures will be
near to a few degrees above normal through Sunday under this regime.
Residual outflow boundaries over the Permian Basin from yesterday's
convection could provide low level foci for thunderstorm development
this afternoon/tonight, while the heated high terrain provides the
same over the western CWA.

The atmosphere will become fairly unstable this afternoon, and
expect scattered thunderstorms to develop, but mainly over the
higher terrain.  The MCV over the Permian Basin could also aid
thunderstorm development through late afternoon, but this will
depend on how much heating is realized.  Will keep chance PoPs going
through tonight as convection could last well into the night over
the higher terrain, and further east aided by a low level jet. Shear
is lacking for organized convection, however strong winds could
occur over western portions of the CWA due to large surface
temperature/dewpoint spreads, and further east over the Permian
Basin due to precipitation loading from a hybrid microburst forecast
sounding.  Small hail could also occur, but locally heavy rainfall
will probably be more of a threat.

Expect a similar situation to the above both Saturday and Sunday,
due to the proximity of the upper low, or any additional MCVs and
outflow boundaries that form.  By Monday, the mentioned West Coast
upper trough will begin to eject northeastward through the central
Rockies and allow the area to dry out and heat up.  The upper ridge
will become more prevalent over the region so rain chances will be
more scarce while high temperatures rise above 100 in many
locations.  We could challenge some record highs next week, but will
stay on the conservative side until we get a little closer.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  71  92  71 /  20  40  30  20
Carlsbad                      102  69  99  69 /  20  20  40  30
Dryden                         94  75  95  73 /  10  30  30  20
Fort Stockton                  98  71  96  71 /  20  30  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 96  65  95  66 /  20  30  30  30
Hobbs                          95  66  93  67 /  20  40  30  30
Marfa                          89  62  89  61 /  30  30  40  30
Midland Intl Airport           96  74  93  73 /  20  30  30  20
Odessa                         95  74  93  74 /  20  30  30  20
Wink                           98  72  97  73 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
302 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-120815-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
302 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016 /202 AM MDT SAT JUN 11 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FEW STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE SUNDAY THAT COULD PRODUCE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND...AND LOCALIZED BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
349 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

TXZ075-110915-
PECOS-
349 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN PECOS COUNTY...

AT 349 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER FORT STOCKTON-PECOS
COUNTY AIRPORT...OR OVER FORT STOCKTON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORT STOCKTON AND FORT STOCKTON-PECOS COUNTY AIRPORT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 253 AND 271.

LAT...LON 3076 10297 3097 10302 3102 10295 3097 10266
      3079 10271
TIME...MOT...LOC 0849Z 282DEG 18KT 3092 10290

49