Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1227 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Wind shift approx 60 miles ne of MAF and is moving at 22kts with
anticipated arrival around 0730-08Z HOB/MAF. Convective concerns
are mostly well to the ne and have omitted any mention in TAFs.
MVFR/IFR CIGS are expected in wake of a wind shift and have
included at all TAFs for now. Soundings indicate lifting/clearing
by 18Z across the w and btwn 18Z-21Z MAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 621 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected overnight at the west Texas and
southeast New Mexico terminals. After midnight a complex of
thunderstorms is expected to move into the eastern Permian Basin
from the Texas Panhandle and move south through the eastern
Permian Basin Friday morning. These storms will bring with it a
wind shift with gusty north to northeast winds along with a period
of prevailing or tempo MVFR ceilings at most of the terminals by
the 12-15z Friday timeframe.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 228 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Over the past 24 hours, the upper pattern has become more
progressive with the upper low finally making its way into the
northern plains. Broad cyclonic flow continues to affect the
region however, and given ample moisture, a few showers and
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and this evening, mainly
across far eastern portions of the forecast area. The best chance
for convection through this evening will be across the Lower
Trans Pecos/Stockton Plateau, where a couple of storms have
already developed as of 2PM CDT along a lingering outflow boundary
from last night's convection. Storms this afternoon and evening
are not expected to be severe, though stronger storms could
produce gusty wind and hail.

The main focus is late tonight and early Thursday morning, as a
shortwave is progged to round the back of the departing low,
pushing a cold front through the Texas Panhandle overnight.
Thunderstorms are expected to initiate this afternoon across the
northern Panhandle, gradually growing upscale and developing into
an MCS along the advancing boundary. High-resolution guidance
indicates a prevailing south-southeast motion of the complex as
it becomes outflow dominated, with storms moving into the Western
Low Rolling Plains by around 09Z/4AM CDT. While the core of the
MCS is expected to move into the Big Country, additional
thunderstorms/thunderstorm clusters are possible across the
northern Permian Basin along the front/outflow boundary, with a
continued southward movement through the early morning hours. The
greatest chance for strong to severe storms late tonight and early
Thursday looks to be across the Western Low Rolling Plains, where
bulk shear will be around 35-40KT coincident with CAPE values
around 1500J/kg. The primary threats will likely evolve to be
damaging wind and locally heavy rainfall, though hail cannot be
ruled out. Given the amount of moisture tonight as well as
expected cloud cover, lows will be mild, generally in the 50s,
with some 60s possible south and east.

Through the day on Thursday, the threat of thunderstorms will
gradually move south with the front/outflow boundary, with
strongest storms expected to be east of the forecast area. As
cooler air filters in behind the front, temperatures Thursday are
expected to be in the 70s to lower 80s, with a few readings in
the lower 90s in the Rio Grande Valley. Ridging builds over the
region on Friday allowing temperatures to moderate, with just a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly confined to the
higher terrain and the Big Bend Area.

On Saturday, an upper low is progged to move across northern
Mexico, which will yield an increased chance of thunderstorms,
mainly along and south of the Pecos River Saturday afternoon and
evening. On Sunday morning, precipitation will have moved east of
the area, with breezy westerly winds developing and temperatures
climbing above normal Sunday afternoon. Precipitation chances
remain slim through the remainder of the extended, with above
normal temperatures expected to continue well into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75  54  77  56 /  30  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       80  53  82  55 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         85  63  83  63 /  20  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  80  57  79  59 /  20  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 74  52  76  54 /  10  10  20  20
Hobbs                          76  49  78  51 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          78  47  77  49 /  10  10  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           78  54  79  56 /  20  10   0   0
Odessa                         78  55  80  57 /  20  10   0   0
Wink                           82  57  84  58 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
212 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-211915-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
212 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016 /112 PM MDT WED APR 20 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER TRANS PECOS
INTO THE BIG BEND REGION, AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN,
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT.  THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR 60 MPH,
AND PERHAPS PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LINGERING STORMS COULD BE ONGOING OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN
THURSDAY MORNING.  GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
208 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

TXZ048-210815-
SCURRY TX-
208 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SCURRY COUNTY UNTIL 315
AM CDT...

AT 207 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
DERMOTT...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF SNYDER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SNYDER...DERMOTT...MIDWAY IN SCURRY COUNTY...HERMLEIGH...UNION IN SCURRY
COUNTY AND WINSTON FIELD.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT FOR
WESTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3290 10105 3294 10081 3271 10066 3258 10069
      3262 10100
TIME...MOT...LOC 0707Z 318DEG 24KT 3284 10094

49

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
303 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

TXZ047-048-052-053-210900-
MITCHELL TX-HOWARD TX-BORDEN TX-SCURRY TX-
303 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BORDEN...EASTERN
HOWARD...SOUTHERN SCURRY AND NORTHERN MITCHELL COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM
CDT...

AT 300 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
OVER KNAPP...OR 11 MILES WEST OF SNYDER...AND AROUND LAKE J.B.
THOMAS. MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLORADO CITY...CHINA GROVE...COAHOMA...VALLEY VIEW...
WESTBROOK...HERMLEIGH...KNAPP...WINSTON FIELD...UNION IN SCURRY COUNTY...
RANDALLS CORNER...FAIRVIEW IN MITCHELL COUNTY...MIDWAY IN HOWARD
COUNTY...SAND SPRINGS...INADALE...BIG SPRING COUNTRY CLUB...CUTHBERT...
DUNN AND J B THOMAS RESERVOIR.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 178 AND 218.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT FOR
WESTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3214 10141 3253 10163 3284 10091 3255 10066
      3248 10066
TIME...MOT...LOC 0800Z 338DEG 24KT 3266 10109

49

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