Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
929 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below. Also, sfc obs show critical
fire wx conditions have ended, so we'll clean up grids/products to
remove the RFW.  Updates out shortly.

AVIATION...

Latest sfc obs show dryline slow to retreat this evening, and at 03Z
extended from KSNK-KMAF-K6R6.  Convective initiation is forecast
along this feature sometime over the next few hours, although high-
res models differ as to when and where.  Thus, we'll insert a
mention in the TAFs as necessary...most likely just at KMAF.  KMAF
still looks to be the problem child overnight w/regards to cigs, as
it is east of the dryline.  Latest buffer soundings suggest a few
hours of MVFR around sunrise, but quickly scattering out to VFR by
mid-morning.  Convective temps look to be reached Tuesday afternoon,
spawning a widespread cu field across the region, w/bases ranging
from 3.5 kt agl in the east to 9 kft agl west.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 228 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016/

UPDATE...
Storms developing over Pecos Co.

DISCUSSION...
Already have first period pops so forecast does not need to be
updated... however had to update discussion for timing of initial
convection. Will have to see if storms continue or die out for a
few hours before redevelopment.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 130 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge over the area being displaced by a shortwave trough
rolling across the Rockies today and a stronger trough digging down
the West Coast.  By this evening this stronger trough will develop
into a closed low over Srn CA and start to roll along the US/Mex
border.  This low will bring a chance of storms to the area
beginning tonight.  There will be brief ridging behind this low but
an interesting feature in the extended is some models showing
another cut off low coming off the Pacific and arriving in the area
by next weekend so something else to watch.

The best chance of storms tonight will be for the Eastern Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos with storms possibly extending back as
far west as Lovington and Pecos.  Some of these storms may be severe
with large hail and damaging wind the main concerns... at this time
tornado risk looks limited.  A surface trough with a west wind has
helped sharpen up a dryline that has been pushed to the eastern edge
of the area by 19z.  Good low level moisture in the east with dewpts
in the 50s to lower 60s being pushed east this afternoon while
dewpts have fallen into the teens across the west.  However this
dryline will retreat west tonight and be the focus for storm
development as upper support arrives. Greatest qpf over the
eastern half of the area. Thunderstorm chances will continue
areawide Tuesday but the severe risk should shift east of the
area. As far as rain chances Wednesday and Thursday looking the
best as the upper low wanders east across TX.

Expect warm temperatures again tonight due to the cloud cover.
Temperatures will be above normal again Tuesday but a cold front
that moves into the area Wednesday and good rain chances will keep
temps on the cool side Wednesday and Thursday.  Temps warm by the
weekend.

FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag conditions are developing in the Guadalupe Mountains
early this afternoon despite considerable high cloudiness.
Expecting these conditions to also develop further east across the
southeast New Mexico Plains and the Van Horn Highway 54 Corridor
shortly as clouds thin some and a dryline surges toward the
eastern Permian Basin by this evening. Across the remainder of
west Texas this afternoon low rh/s and 20 foot southwest winds of
15 to 20 mph will result in near critical fire weather conditions.

The dryline will push back west tonight into the western Permian
Basin with thunderstorms possibly developing along it. Some of
the storms could be severe with large hail and damaging winds over
the Permian Basin. Due to dry fuels fire starts from lightning
strikes could occur. Rh recovery tonight is expected to be mainly
poor to fair west of the Pecos River and good to excellent east.

A strong upper level storm system will approach the region Tuesday,
then move over the area Wednesday. On Tuesday afternoon portions of
the southeast New Mexico Plains, Upper Trans Pecos and Marfa Plateau
could still have minimum afternoon near 15 percent. However, 20 foot
winds are expected to remain below 20 mph, preventing critical fire
weather conditions from developing. Fire weather concerns will become
low by Wednesday through Friday as temperatures cool to below normal
values and the chance for rain increases significantly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     51  75  45  59 /  70  30  30  60
Carlsbad                       42  67  42  59 /   0  20  20  40
Dryden                         56  77  47  64 /  30  20  40  50
Fort Stockton                  50  72  44  59 /  20  20  30  50
Guadalupe Pass                 45  60  39  54 /  10  20  20  30
Hobbs                          43  68  40  56 /  10  20  20  50
Marfa                          36  63  34  53 /   0  20  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           50  74  43  58 /  60  20  30  60
Odessa                         50  73  42  59 /  50  20  30  50
Wink                           44  73  42  59 /  20  20  20  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

44/80/44

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1124 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

TXZ050-060-061-080615-
WINKLER TX-ANDREWS TX-ECTOR TX-
1124 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WINKLER...
SOUTHEASTERN ANDREWS AND NORTHWESTERN ECTOR COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM
CST...

AT 1123 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTH OF GOLDSMITH...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ANDREWS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANDREWS...GOLDSMITH AND ANDREWS COUNTY AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN MIDLAND .

&&

LAT...LON 3194 10269 3204 10282 3239 10259 3216 10226
TIME...MOT...LOC 0523Z 218DEG 23KT 3211 10265

44

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