Alert archive / New Mexico / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 247, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

September 17, 2016Eddy County, Lea County, New Mexico

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 17, 2016, 6:17 PM MDT for Eddy County, Lea County, New Mexico. It was in force for 58 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Sep 17, 2016, 6:17 PM MDT (00:17 UTC)
Expired: Sep 17, 2016, 7:15 PM MDT
In force: 58 min
Issued by: NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Possible
Hail: 2.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 156 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Sep 17, 2:02 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 155 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2085 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -69 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1172 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 136 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 310 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 2.1
Supercell composite: 7.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

494 
WUUS54 KMAF 180017
SVRMAF
NMC015-025-180115-
/O.NEW.KMAF.SV.W.0247.160918T0017Z-160918T0115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
617 PM MDT SAT SEP 17 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN LEA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...
  EAST CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...

* UNTIL 715 PM MDT

* AT 617 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HALFWAY...OR
  28 MILES EAST OF CARLSBAD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

  HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
           WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HALFWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN MIDLAND.

&&

LAT...LON 3262 10387 3246 10329 3216 10363 3251 10395
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 311DEG 20KT 3249 10375 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

44

1 follow-up statement

724 
WWUS54 KMAF 180045
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
645 PM MDT SAT SEP 17 2016

NMC015-025-180115-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0247.000000T0000Z-160918T0115Z/
LEA NM-EDDY NM-
645 PM MDT SAT SEP 17 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LEA AND EAST CENTRAL EDDY COUNTIES...

AT 645 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF HALFWAY...OR 26 MILES WEST OF EUNICE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHWESTERN LEA AND EAST CENTRAL EDDY COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE
BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND.

THIS THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER
INCLUDING EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
TORNADOES. MOVE QUICKLY TO A SAFE SHELTER...SUCH AS AN INTERIOR ROOM...
A BATHROOM OR CLOSET OR BASEMENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3253 10372 3246 10329 3216 10363 3242 10379
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 311DEG 20KT 3239 10361 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

44

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 17, 4:59 PM MDT, 1 hour 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 17, 4:59 PM MDT, 1 hour 18 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
559 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and large hail are possible
across all terminals through this evening. Possible MVFR ceilings
and visibilities for HOB; otherwise, VFR conditions. Winds will be
light out of a generally southerly direction.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016/

UPDATE...

Update to include Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 480 for
southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas until 1000 pm CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016/

One more punch from the passing 3h jet today is expected to
result/aid in the development of tstms, some severe with heavy rain.
Today tstm initiation is favored to be in SE NM and the Trans Pecos
Mtns/Wrn PB in closer proximity to said jet/where mid level lapse
rates are steepest and where there are less clouds/more insolation,
respectively. A surface boundary is still around too and looks to
have lifted back n of I-20 (winds are back to the SE at MAF). Meanwhile
a second boundary assocd with tstms to the N-NE of CWFA earlier
was moving SW and may merge with said boundary. Finally a
3rd boundary is moving w into the SE PB. 12Z MAF sounding reveals
deep mstr and plenty of available energy. A 21Z forecast of the
MAF sounding does reveal ML CAPE of 2800 J/KG and 45kts of 0-6km
bulk shear with no CINH (89/66) supportive of at least a few
severe storms. As storms develop in the said favored areas around
21Z they are likely to track E, possibly SE (in the eventual form
an MCS?) into the low level moist axis within a region of upper
divergence (RRQ of 3h 70-80kt jet). Forecast has chance/scattered
PoPs across most of the area and seems reasonable. Based on latest
high resolution model data will opt to increase PoPs from INVOF
Davis Mtns into at least the wrn PB and expand the mention of
severe wording too. Some of the data (GFS) holds precip after 06Z,
but we tend to prefer scenario of lower PoPs after 06Z like that
of the NAM12. Mid level ridge starts to build in Sunday, but while
doing so mid level flow will briefly become NW and there could be
an isold pocket of convection across the PB late Sunday PM as SB
instability may focus within a small area of high theta-e air at
the surface. Isold-sct tstms INVOF Davis Mtns is more likely. All
of the MOS guidance is eager to increase high temps starting
Sunday thru Monday, especially from I-20 swd with highs back into
the M90s. The ridge will be strongest Monday/Tuesday but models
still show a SE mid level wind advecting in cooler mid level
temps, so Sunday/Monday will probably be the hottest days, but
Tuesday will still be above normal with the possibility of a cold
front next weekend. Otherwise forecast will be mostly dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  93  71  95 /  40  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       65  91  64  93 /  30  10   0   0
Dryden                         72  95  72  96 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  70  94  71  95 /  30  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 64  85  66  87 /  30  10  10   0
Hobbs                          64  88  64  90 /  40  10   0   0
Marfa                          62  87  62  87 /  30  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           69  94  70  96 /  40  10  10   0
Odessa                         69  94  70  95 /  40  10  10   0
Wink                           69  95  69  97 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

99/99/

Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 17, 12:44 PM MDT, 5 hours 33 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
144 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-181845-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
144 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 /1244 PM MDT SAT SEP 17 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT.  SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN
THREATS.  LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, INCLUDING
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 17, 5:07 PM MDT, 1 hour 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
607 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

&&

CMR

Local storm report, Sep 17, 5:08 PM MDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
608 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             13 SW MIDLAND           31.87N 102.24W
09/17/2016  E1.00 INCH       MIDLAND            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            70-80 MPH WINDS FROM DOWNBURST.

&&

CMR

Special weather statement, Sep 17, 5:18 PM MDT, 59 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
618 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

TXZ057-180015-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR TX-
618 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CULBERSON COUNTY
UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 618 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LOBO...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF VAN HORN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LOBO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3084 10491 3099 10490 3092 10446 3075 10478
      3081 10492 3083 10492
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 281DEG 11KT 3086 10485

67

Local storm report, Sep 17, 5:33 PM MDT, 44 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
633 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     HAIL             LEES                    32.08N 101.49W
09/17/2016  E1.25 INCH       GLASSCOCK          TX   PUBLIC

&&

CMR

Local storm report, Sep 17, 5:51 PM MDT, 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
651 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     HAIL             5 S BIG SPRING          32.18N 101.48W
09/17/2016  E1.75 INCH       HOWARD             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL HAIL REPORTED AT THE INTERSECTION OF RANCH ROAD
            33 AND HIGHWAY 87 SOUTH OF BIG SPRING.

&&

AKL

Special weather statement, Sep 17, 6:05 PM MDT, 12 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
705 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

TXZ074-075-180100-
PECOS TX-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA TX-
705 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL BREWSTER...EAST
CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS AND WEST CENTRAL PECOS COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM
CDT...

AT 705 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTHWEST OF HOVEY...OR 27 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALPINE...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOVEY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3063 10357 3082 10348 3077 10306 3044 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 282DEG 15KT 3071 10343

80

The office that day

Everything else NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 17, 6:21 PM MDT	Tornado Warning	MAF	Eddy	24 min
Sep 17, 6:34 PM MDT	Tornado Warning	MAF	Lea	26 min
Sep 17, 6:59 PM MDT	Tornado Warning	MAF	Lea	31 min
Sep 17, 7:05 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Eddy	55 min
Sep 17, 7:15 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Lea	60 min
Sep 17, 7:27 PM MDT	Tornado Warning	MAF	Lea	33 min
Sep 17, 8:12 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Lea	63 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in New Mexico, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.