Alert archive / New Mexico / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

September 17, 2016Eddy County, New Mexico

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 17, 2016, 4:26 PM MDT for Eddy County, New Mexico. It was in force for 64 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Sep 17, 2016, 4:26 PM MDT (22:26 UTC)
Expired: Sep 17, 2016, 5:30 PM MDT
In force: 64 min
Issued by: NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Possible
Hail: 2.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Eddy County, NM

The radar

The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 168 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Sep 17, 4:30 PM MDT	HAIL 2.5	Artesia, NM	HAIL STARTED OUT AS PEA SIZE HAIL, BUT GOT UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL. HAIL DENTED THEIR CAR AND DAMAGED SOME TREES.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 4 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Sep 17, 2:02 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 10.4 hours before the alert went out and 223 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1130 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -141 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 957 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 142 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 146 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 2.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

916 
WUUS54 KMAF 172226
SVRMAF
NMC015-172330-
/O.NEW.KMAF.SV.W.0233.160917T2226Z-160917T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
426 PM MDT SAT SEP 17 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...

* UNTIL 530 PM MDT

* AT 424 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER ARTESIA...
  MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

  THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. 

  HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

  SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. AT 421 MDT...BASEBALL SIZED
           HAIL WAS REPORTED 1 MILE WEST OF ARTESIA. 

  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED. 
           EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS...EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS...
           SIDING...AND VEHICLES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ARTESIA...LOCO HILLS...ARTESIA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...ATOKA AND DAYTON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3278 10453 3292 10454 3292 10437 3289 10393
      3260 10415
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 283DEG 20KT 3285 10440 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...2.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

44

2 follow-up statements

730 
WWUS54 KMAF 172239
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
439 PM MDT SAT SEP 17 2016

NMC015-172330-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0233.000000T0000Z-160917T2330Z/
EDDY NM-
439 PM MDT SAT SEP 17 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM MDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY...

AT 438 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER ARTESIA...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.

HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. AT 436 MDT GOLF BALL  
         HAIL WAS REPORTED 1 MILE NORTH OF ARTESIA. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED. 
         EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS...EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS...
         SIDING...AND VEHICLES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ARTESIA...LOCO HILLS...ATOKA...DAYTON AND ARTESIA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3275 10446 3292 10447 3292 10437 3289 10393
      3260 10415
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 330DEG 12KT 3281 10439 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...2.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

44

474 
WWUS54 KMAF 172303
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
503 PM MDT SAT SEP 17 2016

NMC015-172330-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0233.000000T0000Z-160917T2330Z/
EDDY NM-
503 PM MDT SAT SEP 17 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM MDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY...

AT 503 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF
LAKEWOOD...OR 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ARTESIA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.

HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED. 
         EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS...EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS...
         SIDING...AND VEHICLES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LOCO HILLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3271 10439 3283 10433 3283 10398 3260 10415
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 319DEG 22KT 3270 10423 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...2.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

44

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 17, 2:07 PM MDT, 2 hours 19 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 17, 2:07 PM MDT, 2 hours 19 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
307 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

.UPDATE...

Update to include Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 480 for
southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas until 1000 pm CDT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016/

One more punch from the passing 3h jet today is expected to
result/aid in the development of tstms, some severe with heavy rain.
Today tstm initiation is favored to be in SE NM and the Trans Pecos
Mtns/Wrn PB in closer proximity to said jet/where mid level lapse
rates are steepest and where there are less clouds/more insolation,
respectively. A surface boundary is still around too and looks to
have lifted back n of I-20 (winds are back to the SE at MAF). Meanwhile
a second boundary assocd with tstms to the N-NE of CWFA earlier
was moving SW and may merge with said boundary. Finally a
3rd boundary is moving w into the SE PB. 12Z MAF sounding reveals
deep mstr and plenty of available energy. A 21Z forecast of the
MAF sounding does reveal ML CAPE of 2800 J/KG and 45kts of 0-6km
bulk shear with no CINH (89/66) supportive of at least a few
severe storms. As storms develop in the said favored areas around
21Z they are likely to track E, possibly SE (in the eventual form
an MCS?) into the low level moist axis within a region of upper
divergence (RRQ of 3h 70-80kt jet). Forecast has chance/scattered
PoPs across most of the area and seems reasonable. Based on latest
high resolution model data will opt to increase PoPs from INVOF
Davis Mtns into at least the wrn PB and expand the mention of
severe wording too. Some of the data (GFS) holds precip after 06Z,
but we tend to prefer scenario of lower PoPs after 06Z like that
of the NAM12. Mid level ridge starts to build in Sunday, but while
doing so mid level flow will briefly become NW and there could be
an isold pocket of convection across the PB late Sunday PM as SB
instability may focus within a small area of high theta-e air at
the surface. Isold-sct tstms INVOF Davis Mtns is more likely. All
of the MOS guidance is eager to increase high temps starting
Sunday thru Monday, especially from I-20 swd with highs back into
the M90s. The ridge will be strongest Monday/Tuesday but models
still show a SE mid level wind advecting in cooler mid level
temps, so Sunday/Monday will probably be the hottest days, but
Tuesday will still be above normal with the possibility of a cold
front next weekend. Otherwise forecast will be mostly dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     89  70  93  71 /  30  40  10  10
Carlsbad                       88  65  91  64 /  30  30  10   0
Dryden                         94  72  95  72 /  20  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  92  70  94  71 /  30  30  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 82  64  85  66 /  30  30  10  10
Hobbs                          83  64  88  64 /  50  40  10   0
Marfa                          85  62  87  62 /  40  30  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           90  69  94  70 /  30  40  10  10
Odessa                         89  69  94  70 /  30  40  10  10
Wink                           92  69  95  69 /  30  40  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

99/99

Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 17, 12:44 PM MDT, 3 hours 42 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
144 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-181845-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
144 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 /1244 PM MDT SAT SEP 17 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT.  SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN
THREATS.  LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, INCLUDING
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Sep 17, 2:54 PM MDT, 1 hour 32 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
354 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

TXZ058-074-172145-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS TX-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA TX-
354 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS AND
SOUTHWESTERN REEVES COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 352 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
TOYAHVALE...OR 19 MILES NORTH OF FORT DAVIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10
MPH. ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
JEFF DAVIS COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BALMORHEA...BALMORHEA LAKE...TOYAHVALE...BALMORHEA STATE PARK...
SARAGOSA AND BUFFALO TRAIL SCOUT CAMP.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 181 AND 215.
 INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 7.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3076 10386 3099 10427 3117 10400 3116 10372
      3090 10355
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 233DEG 8KT 3087 10386

67

Local storm report, Sep 17, 4:18 PM MDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
518 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             1 W ARTESIA             32.85N 104.45W
09/17/2016  E1.75 INCH       EDDY               NM   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL 1-2 MILES WEST OF ARTESIA.

&&

AKL

Local storm report, Sep 17, 4:19 PM MDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
519 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     HAIL             2 N ARTESIA             32.88N 104.43W
09/17/2016  E2.50 INCH       EDDY               NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MSCHULDT

Local storm report, Sep 17, 4:20 PM MDT, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
520 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     HAIL             ARTESIA                 32.85N 104.43W
09/17/2016  E1.75 INCH       EDDY               NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL ON THE WEST SIDE OF ARTESIA.

&&

AKL

Local storm report, Sep 17, 4:25 PM MDT, 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
525 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             3 N ARTESIA             32.89N 104.43W
09/17/2016  E1.75 INCH       EDDY               NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            415 MDT

&&

CMR

Local storm report, Sep 17, 4:26 PM MDT, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
526 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     HAIL             1 W ARTESIA             32.85N 104.45W
09/17/2016  E2.75 INCH       EDDY               NM   PUBLIC

            BROKEN WINDSHIELD ON CAR AND BROKEN WINDOW IN HOUSE.

&&

MSCHULDT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 17, 3:24 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Eddy	66 min
Sep 17, 4:38 PM MDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Eddy	3 hr
Sep 17, 4:42 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Lea	33 min
Sep 17, 4:56 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Lea	49 min
Sep 17, 5:11 PM MDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Lea	3 hr
Sep 17, 5:11 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Lea	64 min
Sep 17, 5:11 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Lea	64 min
Sep 17, 5:22 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Eddy, Lea	53 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in New Mexico, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.