Severe Thunderstorm Warning 176, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

092 
WWUS54 KMAF 052120
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
420 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

TXC033-227-052130-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0176.000000T0000Z-160705T2130Z/
BORDEN TX-HOWARD TX-
420 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BORDEN AND NORTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTIES...

AT 419 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LUTHER...OR 17
MILES NORTH OF BIG SPRING...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LUTHER AND VINCENT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3258 10157 3268 10141 3246 10120 3237 10151
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 325DEG 20KT 3249 10142 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
238 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

More record heat is on the way the next couple of days before we see
temperatures cool somewhat this weekend. Barring a thunderstorm or
outflow boundary at Midland Intl we will break yet another record
warm low and high temperature today. The current low so far today
has been 81 degrees which smashes the old record of 76 degrees set
in 1953. The record high temperature for today is 104 set in 1971
and as of 2PM CDT, Midland Intl is 104 degrees and still
climbing. The upper ridge, while not all that strong as far as
heights go, is forecast to stick around through the rest of the
week. A mid level thermal ridge stretching from the central Plains
south to northern Mexico will also remain in place. This will keep
temperatures well above normal, if not near record highs through
at least Thursday and possibly beyond. There are a few subtle
differences in the models that show temperatures may not quite
reach Heat Advisory criteria beyond today over some locations.
For this reason will extend the current advisory through Wednesday
evening for areas we feel most confident in reaching the criteria.
The mid shift may decide to extend it in area and time.

We saw isolated storms develop across a large part of the area
yesterday as the intense heating combined with mid level moisture.
Expect similar conditions this afternoon through much of the weekend
with this moisture aloft only increasing. Most of the models don't
have a good handle on this and keep QPF confined to the mountains.
Another complicated issue is any outflow boundaries left over from
previous convection. A diffuse outflow boundary lies across the
northern Permian Basin left from an MCS that moved across the
Southern High Plains this morning. This, along with any other
boundaries will combine with the intense heating to produce at
least isolated storms across the area. Temperature/dewpoint
depressions are around 50 degrees this afternoon creating a very
dry sub-cloud layer. Any storm will have the potential to produce
strong, gusty winds in this type of atmosphere. This pattern will
likely last into the weekend before we see slightly cooler
temperatures and an increase in appreciable moisture next week.

Models show the ridge breaking down and possibly splitting early next
week. This may allow for an increase in convection and
temperatures to cool back toward normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76 102  76 101 /  20  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       74 107  74 104 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         77 104  76 103 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Stockton                  77 106  76 103 /  10  20  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 73  98  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          73 104  71 102 /  20  20  10  10
Marfa                          68  98  68  95 /  10  20  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           81 106  80 106 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                         81 105  80 105 /  20  10  10  10
Wink                           76 107  76 107 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT Wednesday for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Wednesday for Andrews-
     Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-
     Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-
     Martin-Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
     Ward-Winkler.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Borden-Glasscock-
     Howard-Mitchell-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell.

&&

10/29

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
224 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-061930-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
224 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016 /124 PM MDT TUE JUL 5 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE REGION.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE PRESENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A HEAT ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED FOR ANY ONE OF THESE DAYS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
242 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

TXZ047-052030-
BORDEN TX-
242 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BORDEN COUNTY UNTIL 330
PM CDT...

AT 242 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
GAIL...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GAIL.

LAT...LON 3257 10168 3284 10168 3287 10126 3254 10127
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 278DEG 9KT 3274 10155

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