Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

079 
WWUS54 KMAF 302058
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
358 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

TXC043-377-302107-
/O.CAN.KMAF.SV.W.0118.000000T0000Z-160530T2130Z/
BREWSTER TX-PRESIDIO TX-
358 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL BREWSTER AND EAST
CENTRAL PRESIDIO COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
AND EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
HOWEVER SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3012 10407 3022 10395 2998 10360 2975 10377
      2988 10404
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 314DEG 18KT 2999 10381 

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
223 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Current radar and satellite is showing convection already
developing in the higher elevations from the Davis Mountains north
to the Guadalupe Mountains. This can be attributed to less morning
cloud cover areawide allowing for more insolation and a greater
destabilization of the boundary layer than was seen yesterday.
Models are showing the cap eroding by 21Z with CAPE of 2500-3500
J/KG being enough to support severe convection though deep layer
shear is a bit marginal at 30-35kts. Expect to see some severe
thunderstorms today with large hail and strong winds the primary
threats with hail size being limited due to the shear.

Tuesday looks to be a repeat of today except the dryline will make
a push into southeast New Mexico focusing convection farther east
in the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos. Wednesday see rain
chances increase as an upper low approaching from the west
coincides with the arrival of a cold front. Cool air behind the
front will stabilize the boundary layer leaving the main threat
for severe weather west of the Pecos River, especially the Davis
Mountains and Big Bend. A stable layer will not prevent precip
in the Permian Basin though it will mean showers will be less
intense and QPF will be lighter. Cold air advection and showers
will also keep highs in the 70s most areas Wednesday and Thursday
providing a very pleasant start to June. The upper low will move
east of the area late Thursday bringing an end to the rain, but
thankfully the upstream ridge axis will hold over the western
states for a few days leaving us in a cool northerly flow pattern.
This will allow temperatures to warm some while staying below
climatology for the end of the week.

Hennig

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level trough over the Desert SW will slowly inch east over
the next few days. Dry air across northern Mexico will move across
the Guadalupe Mountains Tuesday afternoon with rh's falling to
around 10 percent. Winds will also increase to near 25 mph,
especially across the peak elevations. Near critical fire weather
conditions are possible in this area so will continue the Fire
Weather Watch. Moisture increases by midweek and should keep rh's
fairly high through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     65  86  63  77 /  40  30  50  50
Carlsbad                       64  91  62  78 /  20  10  20  50
Dryden                         68  88  68  84 /  40  30  30  40
Fort Stockton                  66  89  66  81 /  40  30  30  50
Guadalupe Pass                 61  81  59  73 /  30  10  20  40
Hobbs                          63  86  60  75 /  30  20  30  50
Marfa                          58  83  57  77 /  40  20  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           65  88  64  78 /  40  30  40  50
Odessa                         65  88  64  78 /  40  30  40  50
Wink                           67  92  66  80 /  40  20  20  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

29/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
149 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-311900-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
149 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016 /1249 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL THREATS INCLUDE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
149 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

TXZ074-301930-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA TX-
149 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTY
UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 148 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
DAVIS MOUNTAINS STATE PARK...OR NEAR FORT DAVIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORT DAVIS...INDIAN LODGE STATE PARK...DAVIS MOUNTAINS STATE PARK...FORT
DAVIS NATIONAL HISTORICAL SITE...STAR MOUNTAIN...BLACK MOUNTAIN AND
MCDONALD OBSERVATORY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3090 10379 3071 10351 3071 10352 3056 10396
      3072 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 242DEG 10KT 3068 10393

29