River Flood Warning 10, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

761 
WGUS84 KMAF 300708
FLSMAF
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
208 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Texas...

  Rio Grande at Castolon affecting Brewster County
  
.Water levels were high on the Rio Grande at Castolon but have receded
to below action stage. Levels are expected to remain below action stage
baring additional rainfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists are urged to heed flood warnings, and exercise caution if 
traveling through this area.  Vehicle-related fatalities are the 
number one source of flood fatalities in West Texas and New Mexico.
If you encounter a flooded stretch of roadway, do not attempt to  
cross it.  You and your vehicle could be swept downstream in rushing 
floodwaters.  Turn around, don't drown!  

River levels are high.  Ranchers and farmers should move livestock 
and machinery out of flood-prone areas if time permits.

Keep in mind that any additional rainfall across the area could
significantly change the present forecast stage.

Additional information is available at:  www.weather.gov/midland

This will be the last statement.

&&

TXC043-300738-
/O.CAN.KMAF.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-160831T0128Z/
/CSTT2.1.ER.160829T0310Z.160829T0345Z.160829T0539Z.NO/
208 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Rio Grande at Castolon.
* At 1AM Tuesday the stage was 12.2 feet (3.7 meters).
* Fell below flood stage at  0:39 AM Monday.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet (4.6 meters).
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 10.3 feet (3.1 
  meters) by tomorrow morning.

This crest compares to a previous crest of 16.0 feet (4.9 meters) on 
Aug 29 2016.

&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Tue   Tue   Tue   Wed
                                                7AM   1PM   7PM   1AM
  Castolon       13.0 15.0   12.2   Tue  1 AM   7.7  12.4   8.4   7.4

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Tue   Tue   Tue   Wed
                                                7AM   1PM   7PM   1AM
  Castolon        4.0  4.6    3.7   Tue  1 AM   2.3   3.8   2.6   2.3

&&

LAT...LON 2909 10366 2923 10358 2920 10349 2912 10340 2900 10349


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
525 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars show widespread convection across West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico this afternoon, firing off multiple
boundaries, including one approaching KMAF from the south. Models
suggest this could carry one well into the overnight hours, and
we'll update termianls as needed. Otherwise, forecast soundings
suggest widespread stratus developing overnight, w/LIFR cigs
possible KMAF/KCNM/KHOB near 12Z or so. MVFR conditions should
prevail further S and W. Cigs look slow to scatter out Monday
afternoon, if at all.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 137 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Started the day stuck between an upper low over the 4 corners
region and one on the TX coast with the sub tropical ridge
extending in from VA. The 4 corners low will get pulled NE while
the gulf low meanders down the coast before weakening. By mid week
the upper ridge will become more established over the Central
Plains with the next upper trough swinging over the NW late in the
week.

A surface ridge will build south Monday pushing a weak boundary
through the area with the wind becoming east to northeast.  As far
as temps not expecting much change in overnight readings.  With
plentiful clouds and rain/outflows will keep temps below normal
through midweek.

Currently in a wet pattern... still looking good for heavy rain
potential in SE NM but timing may be a little later... not just
tonight but may carry well into Monday.  May start first in Lea Co
with precip moving down into/developing over Eddy later.  The
Excessive Rainfall Outlook for tonight does have a slight risk over
SE NM down to Alpine.  Have considered a Flash Flood Watch for
tonight and possibly tomorrow mainly for SE NM but after
coordinating with ABQ and LUB have decided to wait for the time
being.  This afternoon have storms firing over the Davis Mtns...
Marfa Plateau... and along the Eastern Permian Basin.  Rain chances
continue in the forecast through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  87  69  86 /  30  40  40  40
Carlsbad                       68  80  67  80 /  60  60  60  60
Dryden                         72  89  72  88 /  30  40  40  40
Fort Stockton                  67  83  66  83 /  40  50  50  40
Guadalupe Pass                 62  72  61  72 /  50  60  60  60
Hobbs                          64  80  64  80 /  60  60  60  50
Marfa                          60  77  61  76 /  50  60  50  50
Midland Intl Airport           69  84  68  85 /  40  50  50  40
Odessa                         70  85  67  85 /  40  50  50  40
Wink                           70  86  69  85 /  50  50  50  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

44/84/44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
155 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-291900-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
155 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016 /1255 PM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL,
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. ELEVATED FLOWS, IF NOT FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE RIO GRANDE RIVER, OR THE PECOS RIVER IN NEW
MEXICO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS, ALONG WITH
FLOODING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, IF NOT THE PECOS RIVER IN SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND