Hard Freeze Warning 1, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1050 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 under clear skies. Winds will
generally be northerly this afternoon at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
at times. Winds will rapidly diminish toward evening and become
generally light out of the northeast.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR category will prevail next 24 hours under CAVU conditions.
Post-frontal northerly winds will veer to northeast after sunset.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is over the central part of the country with a
cold front moving into the area.  Temperatures are expected to reach
the freezing point across northern Lea County this morning so a
Freeze Warning is in effect. This colder air will continue to push
into the CWA today bringing high temperatures into the 50s across
the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico.  Any rain chances will
remain east of the area today.  The surface high will move closer to
the area tonight with clear skies and light winds present.  These
conditions will allow for temperatures tonight to cool to freezing
or below across many locations in the CWA.  A Freeze Watch has been
issued for tonight/Saturday morning for southeast New Mexico,
much of the Permian Basin, the Upper Trans Pecos, the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains, Van Horn, and the Marfa Plateau. The Davis
Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and portions of southeast New Mexico
could receive a hard freeze.

An upper ridge will begin building over the region Saturday.  The
surface high will remain near the area so high temperatures Saturday
are expected to remain in the 50s for most of the CWA.  Surface
winds will become south to southwesterly on Sunday allowing for
compressional warming contributing to highs in the 60s and 70s
across the CWA.  An upper trough will approach the region on Monday
with a surface trough developing across the area allowing for most
places to warm up into the 70s.  Chances of precipitation will
increase across the area Monday night as the upper trough begins to
move over the region.  As the upper trough progresses eastward, a
cold front will move into the CWA Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
This will cool temperatures back down below normal for Wednesday but
no rain is expected.  Temperatures will warm up to around normal
next Thursday and Friday with models indicating possible rain
chances next Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  31  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       57  29  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         70  39  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  60  35  58  38 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 52  29  49  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          54  28  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          59  26  56  26 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           58  31  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         58  31  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           59  31  58  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     Andrews-Borden-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos-Scurry-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

&&

44/80/44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1245 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-191845-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
1245 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2016 /1145 AM MST FRI NOV 18 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A HARD FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR EDDY COUNTY
NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF LEA COUNTY NEW MEXICO.
A HARD FREEZE IS ALSO IN EFFECT AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND MARFA PLATEAU OF WEST TEXAS.

A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION OF WEST TEXAS.

NORTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH GUADALUPE
PASS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A HARD FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID SATURDAY MORNING
FOR EDDY COUNTY NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF LEA
COUNTY NEW MEXICO. A HARD FREEZE IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH MID
SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND MARFA PLATEAU OF WEST
TEXAS.

A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID SATURDAY MORNING FOR
MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION OF WEST
TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND