Fire Weather Watch 13, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
355 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge beginning to nudge east in response
to an upper-lvl storm system approaching the PacNW.  West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico remain under NW flow aloft, w/sfc obs showing
return flow re-establishing itself and keeping overnight lows at
bay.  Increased return flow and abundant insolation this afternoon
will allow highs to creep up to around normal, w/an increase in
moisture overnight keeping lows above normal.

Meanwhile, the upper trough off the PacNW coast will make landfall
in WA state at around 12Z Tue.  This will flatten the ridge and push
it east of the CWA, transitioning flow aloft to SW.  Leeside
troughing on the Front Range ahead of the upper trough will begin
veering sfc flow, w/downslope warming pumping temps Tuesday
afternoon to well-above normal, feeling more like early May than
late March.  Thickness/temp fields suggest this will be the warmest
day this forecast.

Once it makes landfall, the PacNW trough is forecast to dig quickly
to SE ID by 18Z Tuesday.  Closer to home, the H7 pressure gradient
is forecast to tighten to 60m/200nm or better, and remain so into
Wednesday afternoon.  The NAM12 begins developing a moderate mtn
wave signature Tuesday, peaking at around 06Z Wednesday and
diminishing Wednesday afternoon.  Buffer soundings mix to around H6
Tuesday afternoon, and only a little lower Wednesday.  Tuesday
afternoon, 45-50kt westerlies at this level will nose into the
Guadalupes, and increase thru Wednesday morning as the tail of a
strong jet rounding the base of the trough passes thru.  Models are
still in slight disagreement on the track/speed of the trough as it
passes north of the region Tuesday night/Wednesday, but even the
weaker solutions suggest high winds thru the Guadalupes Tue
afternoon-Wed.  Because of this, we seen no reason knocking about
with a watch, and will go ahead and issue a high wind warning for
the Guadalupes.  As this pattern is classic windbag, we'll go ahead
and issue advisories for the adjacent plains, as well as the higher
elevations south.  Earlier shifts added BLDU, and we can't argue
w/that, either.  Needless to say, critical fire wx conditions will
be the main concerns over the next 72 hours.  Please see the fire
wx discussion below for more details.

 As the trough passes north Wednesday, a Pac front will move thru
the area.  This will take afternoon highs down around 10 degrees
from Tuesday's, and well-blo normal Thursday, which should be the
coldest day this week.  NW-zonal flow aloft then sets in into the
weekend, w/another Pac front Saturday night.  Chances of rain
remain slim-to-none.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

As an upper level trough over the western conus on Tuesday moves
east, a lee surface trough will develop across West Texas and
southeast New Mexico. This will result in winds increasing out of
the southwest Tuesday afternoon contributing to drying and downslope
warming. Higher winds at the base of the approaching upper trough
will mix downward across the area further strengthening the winds.
Areas along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos will likely experience
sustained winds of 30+ mph. Minimum relative humidity values are
expected to be in the single digits across much of the area Tuesday
afternoon.  Due to these conditions, have upgraded the Fire Weather
Watch to a Red Flag Warning for the same area although it may need
to be expanded eastward. The warning is set to expire at 01z instead
of 06z due to uncertainty in regards to both the winds and RH values
remaining at critical thresholds for this time period.

On Wednesday, the afformentioned upper trough will pass just to the
north of the region with the higher winds at the base of the trough
mixing downward over the area.  RH values will not be quite as low
on Wednesday as on Tuesday but wind speeds are still expected to be
at least 20 mph across a majority of the area.  Have issued a Fire
Weather Watch for the western Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico
plains, Upper Trans Pecos, Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, Van Horn
and the Highway 54 Corridor, and the Marfa Plateau for Wednesday
afternoon until 03z Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  49  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       82  49  90  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         73  47  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  79  53  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 72  51  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          74  46  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          71  38  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           72  45  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         73  48  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           79  45  89  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday for Eddy
     County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning from 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Tuesday to 7 PM CDT
     /6 PM MDT/ Wednesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     Tuesday for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Tuesday to 7 PM CDT /6 PM
     MDT/ Wednesday for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

80/44

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