Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1215 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF MVFR AND SCATTERED IFR AS WELL AS VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WITH CEILINGS WILL MAINLY BE SEEN FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS AR AND DEVELOP SCATTERED TO A TIME NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF FOG...WILL ALSO BE ACROSS AR.
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER SW PARTS OF AR. WINDS WILL MOSTLY
BE E TO SE AT 5 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. FOR SATURDAY MORNING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO START IFR AND MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THEN THROUGH THE DAY GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR TO VFR
WITH CEILINGS. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A LESSENING SEVERE THREAT AND
REMOVAL OF TORNADO WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WHILE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT THE GOING THOUGHT IS THAT
PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS HAVE LIKELY STABILIZED THINGS
ENOUGH THAT SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY TORNADIC STORMS...WILL BE
LESS OF A CONCERN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS THAT WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY
PLACE FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL TRENDS ARE AS EXPECTED. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN
SEEN TODAY...WHILE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL RAIN WITH
THUNDER IS EXPECTED. MAIN CONCERN INITIALLY IS THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER SW AR WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN. CURRENTLY THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE WAS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS...AS UPPER ENERGY MOVES
EASTWARD INTO AR AND DEVELOPING THE STORMS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DRIFTED A BIT SOUTH...KEEPING THE WARMEST AND MORE MOIST AIR OVER N
LA. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN...WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND FORECAST INDICATES THIS. SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL ALSO
REMAIN OVER PARTS OF AR...WHILE THE SW WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST
THREAT. WILL FINE TUNE ELEMENTS AS THE EVENING GOES...BUT AT THIS
TIME NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS RIDGE IS BLOCKING THE UPPER
LOW FROM MOVING EAST. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE WARM FRONT AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS AGAIN OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS WELL...WITH THE FRONT EXITING
THE EAST PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME. NEXT BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG TERM WITH A FRONT SLOWING DOWN
AS IT APPROACHES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.

&&

64

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
645 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-301015-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-
CALHOUN-BRADLEY-DREW-
645 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM KICKING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL BRING SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLASH FLOODING TO THE AREA TONIGHT. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND
LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS
BUT THE TORNADO THREAT CAN NOT BE DISCOUNTED ENTIRELY.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG STORMS...FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A
POSSIBILITY. A LARGE AREA OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS HAS
ALREADY EXPERIENCED IN EXCESS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN FROM EARLIER
TODAY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA TONIGHT WITH
SEVERAL MORE INCHES EXPECTED LEADING TO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.
AS SUCH...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING TO START THE DAY
SATURDAY...PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE STATE WITH TIME. THE MAIN
AREA TO WATCH FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL BE IN EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AS A RESULT. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LZK.

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1115 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MENA                    34.59N  94.24W
04/29/2016                   POLK               AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER REPORTED OVER HIGHWAY 71

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1600011

CED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1118 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ARKADELPHIA             34.12N  93.05W
04/29/2016                   CLARK              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL COUNTY ROADS FLOODED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1600012

CED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1119 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MT IDA                  34.55N  93.63W
04/29/2016                   MONTGOMERY         AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL COUNTY ROADS FLOODED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1600013

CED