Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
229 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

ALL QUIET ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH A COMPLEX OF
SHRA/TSRA IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF ERN OK. THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH BEST POPS OVER
THE WRN AND NWRN COUNTIES BY AROUND SUNRISE. AS THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS
NE...A REMNANT MESOSCALE OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL DROP SE INTO
CENTRAL TO SWRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATER RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE
BEEN INDICATING THIS FEATURE WILL TRIGGER NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AS THIS BOUNDARY DROPS SE. SOME
STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD BE SEEN WITH THIS ACTIVITY BY MIDDAY.THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX WILL BE FROM CENTRAL AR SOUTH AND SW
TOWARDS TX...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHR TO SEE
AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO AS WELL.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP FURTHER NW BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL JUST BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO AR
BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HRS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE BY THIS EVENING...AS THE MAIN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROP SE OVER AR. AREAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS MAIN
FRONT WILL THEN BE WHERE THE BEST POPS WILL EXIST...ALONG WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT
DEVELOPING.

WILL HAVE POPS ENDING FROM NW TO SE BY SUNRISE TUE MORNING AS
DRIER...MORES STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT.
THESE CALMER...AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...
WHILE AN UPPER SHORT MOVES ACROSS AR. CURRENT MODELS DO INDICATED A
LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
STATE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THEN WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS SLOW THE UPPER SHORT WAVE REMAINING IN THE
VICINITY...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION.
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME DO TO UNCERTAINTY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION AND MOISTURE
LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE. THE FORECAST WILL STAY DRY UNTIL SUNDAY
AS AN APPROACHING SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE FAR WESTERN AREAS OF
AR. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN IS PUT INTO THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND OF A BIT BELOW NORMAL VALUES ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     71  44  62  40 /  80  60  10   0
CAMDEN AR         77  52  67  47 /  80  80   0  10
HARRISON AR       68  39  60  37 /  80  40   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  51  64  45 /  80  80   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  49  64  43 /  80  80   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     75  52  66  46 /  80  80  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      73  50  65  44 /  80  80   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  68  41  62  38 /  80  40   0   0
NEWPORT AR        70  44  62  39 /  80  60  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     73  50  64  44 /  80  80  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  48  65  43 /  80  60   0  10
SEARCY AR         69  47  62  40 /  80  70  10   0
STUTTGART AR      72  48  63  42 /  80  80  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
307 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-121000-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-
CALHOUN-BRADLEY-DREW-
307 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...OR SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
FORT SMITH...TO CONWAY...TO DES ARC. SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
COULD STILL BE SEEN NORTH OF THIS LINE.

EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE. SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD ALSO BE SEEN...AS 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL
RAPIDLY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. AS A RESULT...AN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL EXIST...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE.

THE THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL DECREASE BY LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL REMAIN LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

62

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