Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 255, NWS Little Rock, AR

July 29, 2016Lonoke County, Prairie County, Arkansas

NWS Little Rock, AR issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 29, 2016, 4:10 PM CDT for Lonoke County, Prairie County, Arkansas. It was in force for 50 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 29, 2016, 4:10 PM CDT (21:10 UTC)
Expired: Jul 29, 2016, 5:00 PM CDT
In force: 50 min
Issued by: NWS Little Rock, AR
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Lonoke County, AR, Prairie County, AR

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 12:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 162 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1331 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -66 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 825 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 16 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 38 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 29, 2:40 PM CDT, 1 hour 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 29, 2:40 PM CDT, 1 hour 30 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
240 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

Widespread convection will continue across roughly the northern
half of the state this afternoon and evening before diurnal trends
lead to dissipation of storms. In the meantime some of these
storms will continue to be strong to severe...with damaging winds
and some hail being a distinct possibility.

Otherwise...northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the region
through the first half of this weekend before an upper ridge begins
to build in from the southwest...displacing the upper level
northwesterly flow off towards the Ohio River Valley area. Until
that time however...nocturnal MCS and afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are expect. As such fairly broad-brushed chance
PoPs will be in the forecast through the remainder of the short
term period. Temperatures will remain around or slightly below
seasonal norms...especially during the afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday night Through Friday

Ridging will build back into the region during the period, with only
isolated to scattered, diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms
expected. Humidity will remain high, and by mid-week, heat index
values could approach or exceed 105 degrees in places. By the end of
the period, influence of the ridge should begin to wane.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     73  89  72  90 /  30  40  50  50
Camden AR         75  94  76  95 /  30  40  20  40
Harrison AR       69  86  70  89 /  30  40  50  40
Hot Springs AR    74  92  76  93 /  50  40  30  40
Little Rock   AR  75  92  75  93 /  50  40  30  40
Monticello AR     75  92  76  93 /  30  40  30  40
Mount Ida AR      73  91  74  93 /  50  40  20  30
Mountain Home AR  70  87  70  89 /  20  40  50  50
Newport AR        73  89  73  90 /  40  40  50  50
Pine Bluff AR     73  92  74  93 /  40  40  30  40
Russellville AR   74  91  74  93 /  40  40  40  40
Searcy AR         74  91  73  91 /  50  40  40  40
Stuttgart AR      74  92  74  91 /  50  40  40  40
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...64 / Long Term...57

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 29, 5:00 AM CDT, 11 hours 10 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-301000-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-CALHOUN-
BRADLEY-DREW-
500 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. ALSO, WITH THE
SLOW MOVING STORMS, THERE WILL BE THE INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S TO MID 90S DUE TO THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY STILL IN
PLACE...HEAT INDICES WILL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 90S DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY
AS THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGES. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL DECREASE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER ARKANSAS AGAIN. OTHER THAN CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD ALSO BE SEEN WITH SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS.

GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY STORMS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...RESULTING IN AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE
THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LZK.

51

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 29, 2:18 PM CDT, 1 hour 52 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
218 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

ARZ032-039-044-292000-
PERRY AR-PULASKI AR-FAULKNER AR-
218 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PULASKI...
SOUTHWESTERN FAULKNER AND EASTERN PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 218 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
WYE MOUNTAIN...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PERRYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTH LITTLE ROCK...              CONWAY...
MAUMELLE...                       PERRYVILLE...
MAYFLOWER...                      PERRY...
HOUSTON...                        OAK GROVE IN PULASKI COUNTY...
WILLIAMS JUNCTION...              ROLAND IN PULASKI COUNTY...
MORGAN...                         MARCHE...
LITTLE ITALY...                   WYE MOUNTAIN...
CAMP ROBINSON...                  PINNACLE MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...
BURNS PARK...                     TOAD SUCK...
AMBOY...                          BIGELOW...

LAT...LON 3480 9228 3483 9265 3485 9265 3485 9274
      3484 9274 3485 9283 3486 9286 3507 9281
      3507 9226
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 269DEG 9KT 3496 9269

CAVANAUGH

Special weather statement, Jul 29, 2:42 PM CDT, 1 hour 28 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
242 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

ARZ042-292030-
GARLAND AR-
242 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN GARLAND COUNTY UNTIL 330
PM CDT...

AT 242 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MOUNTAIN PINE...OR 9 MILES WEST OF HOT SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOT SPRINGS...                    HOT SPRINGS VILLAGE...
MOUNTAIN PINE...                  HOT SPRINGS MEMORIAL FIELD...
PINEY IN GARLAND COUNTY...        HOT SPRINGS NATIONAL PARK...
LAKE OUACHITA STATE PARK...       LOFTON...
ROCKWELL...                       SUNSHINE...
RED OAK...                        ROYAL...
HEMPWALLACE...                    PEARCY...
GULPHA GORGE...                   PETTYVIEW...
MOUNTAIN VALLEY...                OAKLAWN RACETRACK...

LAT...LON 3462 9330 3470 9297 3439 9297 3440 9336
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 270DEG 8KT 3453 9322

CAVANAUGH

Special weather statement, Jul 29, 3:03 PM CDT, 1 hour 7 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 29, 3:26 PM CDT, 44 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 29, 3:33 PM CDT, 37 minutes before

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  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
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  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
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Special weather statement, Jul 29, 3:41 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
341 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

ARZ033-046-292130-
WHITE AR-PRAIRIE AR-
341 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WHITE AND
NORTHWESTERN PRAIRIE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 340 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
HIGGINSON...OR NEAR SEARCY...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SEARCY...                         BEEBE...
KENSETT...                        HIGGINSON...
WEST POINT...                     PRYOR...
MCRAE...                          GARNER...
GRIFFITHVILLE...                  HAYLEY...
WALKER...                         VINITY CORNER...
HICKORY PLAINS...                 JASMINE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3492 9158 3500 9180 3503 9181 3502 9186
      3506 9196 3525 9180 3527 9145
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 279DEG 9KT 3516 9173

CAVANAUGH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Little Rock, AR issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 28, 10:17 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Izard	43 min
Jul 29, 1:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Yell	34 min
Jul 29, 1:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Cleburne, Independence, Jackson, White	34 min
Jul 29, 2:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Baxter, Marion, Searcy, Stone	50 min
Jul 29, 2:18 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Pulaski	42 min
Jul 29, 2:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Baxter, Fulton, Izard	47 min
Jul 29, 2:42 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Garland	48 min
Jul 29, 3:03 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Van Buren	42 min
Jul 29, 3:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	White	49 min
Jul 29, 3:33 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Pulaski	27 min
Jul 29, 3:41 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	White	49 min
Jul 29, 3:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Pulaski	45 min
Jul 29, 4:56 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Grant	49 min
Jul 29, 5:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Grant, Jefferson	38 min
Jul 29, 5:47 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Scott	43 min
Jul 29, 6:00 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Clark	30 min
Jul 29, 6:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Polk, Scott	45 min
Jul 29, 6:31 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LZK	Clark, Dallas, Hot Spring	119 min
Jul 29, 6:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Montgomery, Polk, Scott	45 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.