Severe Thunderstorm Warning 214, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
614 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

A cluster of SHRA/TSRA is moving south across NRN sections of the
state this morning...with additional isolated to scattered
activity developing across all but SRN sections of the state. The
NRN terminals are seeing MVFR or lower conditions at this
time...which will be story under the more intense convection. Will
see some improvements for these sites later this morning as this
activity drops south. Elsewhere...will see generally scattered
SHRA/TSRA this morning into the early afternoon hrs...then a break
in the precip should be seen by mid to late afternoon. This
evening into the overnight period...additional SHRA/TSRA will be
possible....with MVFR or lower conditions expected under the more
intense convection. However...only mention VCTS at this time after
00Z as timing and location are uncertain.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

Some isolated to widely scattered SHRA have been moving SE over
portions of the central and ERN CWA early this morning...with much
stronger and organized SHRA/TSRA activity ongoing across SRN MO and
portions of central and NERN OK. Will have to keep an eye on the
activity north and west of the CWA this morning as it may impact the
weather through late this morning and into early this afternoon over
portions of AR.

The past few runs of the HRRR have been doing fairly well regarding
the overall location and timing of the ongoing convective activity
to the north and west of the CWA. Over the next several hrs...the
HRRR does show the convective activity in OK continue to drop SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...which seems
reasonable given the current trends. Have increased pops through the
next few hrs across the WRN and SWRN counties as a result. There may
remain some SVR WX potential with this activity as it remains SVR
over ERN OK at this 3 am hr. So...may continue to see some strong to
briefly SVR level winds...and maybe some large hail.

Have also increased pops this morning across the NRN and NERN
counties as the convective activity across MO drops south over time.
While this ongoing activity may weaken over time...recent radar
imagery showing an outflow boundary starting to dive south and
SW...which should trigger additional SHRA/TSRA through later this
morning as it progresses south. This activity remains weaker than
the ERN OK convection...and will probably see less SVR WX potential
over the next few hrs as there is less MU CAPE in the NRN and NERN
counties. Even so...some strong to briefly SVR level winds may be
seen as this activity drops south. As temps warm later this
morning...may see better potential for some isolated SVR WX as this
outflow continues south through central and even SERN sections of
the state. The main threats will be damaging winds...and some large
hail.

Late this afternoon into the evening hrs...will see a break in the
precip potential...but additional SHRA/TSRA will be possible as a
new upper disturbance moves ESE into NRN sections of the state late
tonight into Fri morning. Some strong to SVR storms could be seen
with this new disturbance...with damaging winds the primary SVR WX
threat. Some large hail may also be seen. Depending on how this
overnight and early Fri morning system evolves...the forecast may
vary as a result. At this time....keep slight to chance pops for the
Fri into Fri night time frame as new convection may be
seen...especially along any residual outflow boundaries.

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday

Fntl bndry wl be lingering ovr the FA on Sat...with lingering chcs
of SHRA/TSRA. Activity wl be aided by a weak upr impulse that wl
pass acrs the region.

For the rest of the pd...hot and humid conds wl be the main story.
Upr rdg is still fcst to expand EWD acrs the Plains States heading
into next week. The rdg wl basically put a lid on any organized
convection...although a stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out
durg the aftn/early evening hrs. Highs wl be mainly in the 90s...
with a few locations apchg the century mark. Aftn heat indices wl
likely reach or exceed the 105 degree mark over a large part of the
FA.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
340 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-151000-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-
CALHOUN-BRADLEY-DREW-
340 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE AREA AS STORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO ARKANSAS. THESE STORMS HAVE
BEEN OCCASIONALLY SEVERE IN OKLAHOMA...AND MAY CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO
ARKANSAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LARGE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE STATE.

LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THIS EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS COULD BE SEEN...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO BE SEEN
WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE SEEN WITH
THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT COULD ALSO BE
SEEN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
WHILE THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW...SOME
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE SEEN.

CHANCES FOR RAINFALL DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN INCREASE WELL INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100.
HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY INCREASE OVER 105 DEGREES DURING THIS SAME
PERIOD...WITH HEAT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LZK.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
503 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

ARZ003>007-012>015-141100-
SEARCY AR-IZARD AR-BOONE AR-NEWTON AR-MARION AR-BAXTER AR-STONE AR-
SHARP AR-FULTON AR-
503 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARION...IZARD...WEST CENTRAL
SHARP...NORTHEASTERN NEWTON...FULTON...NORTHERN SEARCY...EASTERN
BOONE...CENTRAL BAXTER AND NORTHERN STONE COUNTIES UNTIL 600 AM
CDT...

AT 502 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WILLIS TO NEAR CARTNEY
TO NEAR SALEM IN FULTON COUNTY...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHEROKEE VILLAGE...               MELBOURNE...
SALEM IN FULTON COUNTY...         YELLVILLE...
ASH FLAT...                       HORSESHOE BEND...
GASSVILLE...                      CALICO ROCK...
FLIPPIN...                        OXFORD...
NORFORK...                        SALESVILLE...
BERGMAN...                        WESTERN GROVE...
VIOLA...                          PINEVILLE...
BRIARCLIFF...                     PYATT...
FRANKLIN...                       VALLEY SPRINGS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3606 9304 3585 9231 3607 9148 3647 9169
      3628 9247 3647 9312
TIME...MOT...LOC 1002Z 338DEG 22KT 3642 9300 3623 9245 3640 9175

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
552 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

ARZ007-012>016-022>024-141145-
SEARCY AR-VAN BUREN AR-IZARD AR-INDEPENDENCE AR-NEWTON AR-POPE AR-
STONE AR-SHARP AR-CLEBURNE AR-
552 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN VAN BUREN...NORTHWESTERN
INDEPENDENCE...SOUTHEASTERN IZARD...SOUTHWESTERN SHARP...EASTERN
NEWTON...SEARCY...NORTHEASTERN POPE...NORTHERN CLEBURNE AND STONE
COUNTIES UNTIL 645 AM CDT...

AT 551 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WESTERN GROVE TO 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF BLANCHARD SPRINGS CAMPGROUND TO 8 MILES NORTHEAST
OF SIDNEY...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BATESVILLE...                     MOUNTAIN VIEW...
CLINTON...                        FAIRFIELD BAY...
MARSHALL...                       CAVE CITY...
NEWARK...                         GREERS FERRY...
CUSHMAN...                        MOUNT PLEASANT...
SHIRLEY...                        CONCORD...
MAGNESS...                        SIDNEY...
MOOREFIELD...                     HIGDEN...
SOUTHSIDE IN INDEPENDENCE COUNTY...
EULA...
BLANCHARD SPRINGS CAMPGROUND...   ELBERTA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3574 9138 3551 9219 3566 9303 3608 9303
      3595 9230 3612 9150
TIME...MOT...LOC 1051Z 345DEG 19KT 3604 9298 3592 9230 3609 9155

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
557 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

ARZ003-141145-
BOONE AR-
557 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN BOONE COUNTY UNTIL 645 AM
CDT...

AT 557 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
OMAHA...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF HARRISON...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HARRISON...                       OMAHA...
CAPPS...                          SELF...
MYRTLE...                         RED BANK...
BELLEFONTE...                     ALPENA...
BATAVIA...                        BEAR CREEK SPRINGS...
NEW HOPE IN BOONE COUNTY...       RIDGEWAY...
BURLINGTON...                     HOPEWELL IN BOONE COUNTY...
GAITHER...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 9301 3612 9330 3646 9329 3648 9311
TIME...MOT...LOC 1057Z 350DEG 19KT 3639 9321

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
647 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

ARZ013-014-016-022>025-031-033-034-141245-
WHITE AR-SEARCY AR-JACKSON AR-VAN BUREN AR-CONWAY AR-INDEPENDENCE AR-
WOODRUFF AR-POPE AR-STONE AR-CLEBURNE AR-
647 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VAN BUREN...JACKSON...
NORTHWESTERN WOODRUFF...SOUTHERN INDEPENDENCE...NORTHERN WHITE...
SOUTH CENTRAL SEARCY...NORTHEASTERN POPE...NORTHEASTERN CONWAY...
CLEBURNE AND SOUTHERN STONE COUNTIES UNTIL 745 AM CDT...

AT 647 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF NEWARK
TO NEAR SOUTHSIDE IN INDEPENDENCE COUNTY TO NEAR CONCORD TO NEAR
SHIRLEY TO NEAR SMYRNA...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEWPORT...                        HEBER SPRINGS...
CLINTON...                        FAIRFIELD BAY...
TUCKERMAN...                      DIAZ...
NEWARK...                         GREERS FERRY...
QUITMAN...                        PANGBURN...
DAMASCUS...                       PLEASANT PLAINS...
SHIRLEY...                        OIL TROUGH...
CONCORD...                        RUSSELL...
JACKSONPORT...                    MAGNESS...
HIGDEN...                         ALGOA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3532 9143 3535 9169 3537 9292 3572 9299
      3579 9223 3578 9189 3569 9168 3589 9126
      3549 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 1147Z 335DEG 16KT 3577 9135 3564 9165 3572 9186 3572
9226 3568 9287

44