Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
247 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

.Short term...Tonight through Sunday night

Latest surface analysis place a weak and rather diffuse frontal
boundary roughly along a line from Harrison to Clinton to Searcy.
Remnants of the MCV from this morning is muddling things up a bit
with boundary a bit difficult to really find. Aforementioned feature
from this morning brought localized flooding issues to Marion
county. Please refer to the local storm reports for the specifics.

Front expected to continue moving from the northeast towards the
southwest this evening and tonight, clearing the state around
sunrise on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the boundary and the possibility of some strong storms
cannot be discounted.

However, the left overs from the MCV which are in central Arkansas at
this time may limit the severe potential to a certain extent.
Intense cluster of severe thunderstorms is currently located along
the boundary over northern Mississippi and while this batch is moving
away, potential still exists further east as the afternoon
progresses.

Slightly cooler and drier air air will then spread over the area in
the wake of the boundary for the remainder of the period. While both
temperatures and dew points will be lower, it will be still be warm
but much more representative of what conditions should be in mid
June. As such, the heat advisory will be allowed to expire this
evening with no reason to reissue needed.
&&

.Long term...Monday through Friday

Surface high pressure is expected to move east of Arkansas on
Monday... ushering southerly winds and humid Gulf air back across
the state. Heat index values will likely approach 100 degrees across
Arkansas Monday afternoon with highs in the lower 90s and dew points
in the lower 70s. Upper level ridging should provide enough weak
forcing for subsidence to keep showers and thunderstorms suppressed.

On Tuesday the upper level ridge is expected to slide to the
southwest as a strong upper trough moves southeast over the Great
Lakes region. With warm and humid conditions still in place across
Arkansas...this may be enough to allow for some isolated
thunderstorms to develop during the peak heating hours of the day.
High temperatures and humidity are expected to be similar to Monday
for Tuesday afternoon...but went ahead with broad brushed 20 pops to
account for the increased likelihood of thunderstorms.

On Wednesday the large upper trough is expected to dig south over
the southeastern CONUS. This should send a cold front slowly
southwest across Arkansas Wednesday morning...possibly stalling out
across the state Wednesday afternoon. The front is expected to serve
as a focus for rain shower and thunderstorm development on
Wednesday...so will carry a 30 pop in the forecast for now until
confidence increases as we get closer to the middle of next week.
Scattered thunderstorms look likely in this scenario wherever the
front stalls out...but models do not consistently stall the front
out in the same area.

Thursday and Friday...The forecast is more or less contingent upon
what happens with the cold front on Wednesday...including how much
convection along the front may affect its position Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Assuming the front is in southwest
Arkansas Thursday afternoon...went ahead and kept a 20 pop in the
forecast for the southwestern CWA at this time. Left Friday dry for
now as most model guidance indicates drier air behind the front will
be in place across Arkansas by that time.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     70  90  70  90 /  20  10   0  10
Camden AR         73  94  72  92 /  30  20   0  10
Harrison AR       69  89  68  88 /  20  10   0  10
Hot Springs AR    74  91  72  90 /  30  10   0  10
Little Rock   AR  75  92  73  92 /  30  10   0  10
Monticello AR     75  93  74  91 /  30  10   0  10
Mount Ida AR      72  91  70  89 /  30  10   0  10
Mountain Home AR  70  89  69  90 /  20  10   0  10
Newport AR        71  92  72  91 /  20   0   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     74  91  72  90 /  30  10   0  10
Russellville AR   73  92  71  91 /  30  10   0  10
Searcy AR         72  92  71  91 /  20  10   0  10
Stuttgart AR      74  91  73  91 /  30  10   0  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.

&&

Short Term...56 / Long Term...66

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
230 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-181030-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-
CALHOUN-BRADLEY-DREW-
230 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF LITTLE
ROCK MAY EXPERIENCE SLIGHT RELIEF FROM THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT DRIFTS THROUGH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE ENTIRE
STATE BY MORNING.

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE AREA.  THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE SLOWLY ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN NOT BE DISCOUNTED AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LZK.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
213 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PEEL                    36.43N 92.77W
06/17/2016  M4.60 INCH       MARION             AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT OF 4.6 INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS MORNINGS
            THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

JHOOD