River Flood Warning 29, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1115 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG...AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE SHORT OF IT...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL END UP SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF WHERE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS HAD ADVERTISED. INSTEAD OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLING
OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS...IT NOW APPEARS AREAS CLOSER TO OR SLIGHTLY
EAST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR WILL BE WHERE THE HIGHEST STORM TOTALS
WIND UP OCCURRING. FORECAST EVENT TOTALS HAVE NOT CHANGED
MUCH...WITH 5-7 INCHES EXPECTED AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS.

THE LONG OF IT...REGIONAL RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS SHOW A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SITUATED PARALLEL TO AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS/LOUSIANA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. RAINFALL RATES AND
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN HEAVIEST OVERNIGHT NEAREST TO THIS
BOUNDARY AS A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET AIDED IN ASCENT ACROSS IT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHIFTING NORTH
INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS TODAY. EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH
AMOUNTS TODAY AS THE HEAVY RAINS AND ASSOCIATED PRECPITABLE WATER
PLUME SURGE NORTH INTO THE STATE. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
ALIGNED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-30/US-67 CORRIDORS...OR WITHIN ABOUT
40-50 MILES EITHER SIDE. A BIT OF A LULL IN RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
DROP RAIN CHANCES CONSIDERABLY. THE FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD
+80-90 PERCENT POPS TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHIFT IN THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS AND NEW FORECAST
AMOUNTS. THAT ABOUT DOES IT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

NOT MANY CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE CURRENT LONG TERM FORECAST AS
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN THAT
WILL LAST RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
BY THE TIME THE PERIOD BEGINS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE AS SEVERAL MORE UPPER WAVES MOVE THROUGH AND INTERACT
WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN BUT THE AMOUNTS TO NOT APPEAR TO BE A HIGH AS WHAT
WILL SEEN IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION OF THE FORECAST.

BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE...LIFT NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD AND
DAMPEN OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE FINALLY
DEAMPLIFIES.

RAIN WILL DIMINISH...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS A SMALL BUT POTENT UPPER LOW MOVES DOWN OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND GIVES THE MEANDERING SURFACE BOUNDARY A PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT...AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS LULL WILL LIKELY NOT LAST
MUCH BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS
AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&

AVIATION...57

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1035 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-101125-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1035 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS A VERY SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WOBBLES TOWARD
ARKANSAS FROM MEXICO.

FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN /AND LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS/ IS EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THIS INCLUDES AREAS FROM TEXARKANA /MILLER
COUNTY/ AND EL DORADO /UNION COUNTY/ TO LITTLE ROCK /PULASKI
COUNTY/ AND NEWPORT /JACKSON COUNTY/.

TWO TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN SOME OF
THESE AREAS THROUGH DAWN WEDNESDAY. WITH SEVERAL INCHES
MORE...FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY. WATER WILL FLOW OVER ROADS...
WITH CLOSED ROADS EXPECTED. THIS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE HIGHLY
TRAVELED ROADS SUCH AS STATE HIGHWAYS. HOMES AND BUSINESSES
WILL BE THREATENED BY HIGH WATER IN PLACES...AND SOME HIGH
WATER RESCUES MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION REMAINS ON THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.
THIS WILL MAKE AN ALREADY BAD FLASH FLOOD SITUATION WORSE.

AS RUNOFF FROM THIS RAIN MAKES IT INTO AREA TRIBUTARIES...
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS IN THE FORECAST ON MOST RIVERS.
SOME OF THESE RIVERS WILL REMAIN HIGH FOR SEVERAL WEEKS.

THIS EVENT WILL FEATURE LITTLE TO NO SEVERE WEATHER. SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST.

THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PRODUCING THE RAIN WILL NOT GET OUT OF
HERE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT REPORTS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND ANY FLOODING ARE WELCOME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

56/46

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1036 AM CST WED MAR 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PINE BLUFF              34.21N 92.02W
03/08/2016                   JEFFERSON          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MANY ROADS IN AND AROUND PINE BLUFF WERE REPORTED WITH
            WATER OVER THEM AND IMPASSIBLE. THESE INCLUDE GLENDALE
            ROAD AT HIGHWAY 54, SUMMERS ROAD, AND 34TH AND 1ST STREET
            IN THE CITY OF PINE BLUFF.

&&

61