River Flood Warning 18, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
112 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA IS ONGOING ACROSS ERN OK AND NERN TX EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED SHRA SEEN  ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SO FAR. THIS WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOWEVER AS THE WHOLE COMPLEX SHIFTS EAST...AND THE SHRA/TSRA
OVERSPREADS THE CWA.

THIS FIRST ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BRING SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT THE OVERALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED GIVEN HOW
DRY IT HAS BEEN LATELY. HOWEVER...THIS FIRST ROUND WILL BE THE
PRIMER EVENT...ALLOWING THE SOILS TO BECOME SATURATED.

THERE MAY ALSO BE A SLIGHT SVR WX THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT WILL BE LIMITED TO SWRN AND SRN SECTIONS OF
THE STATE WHERE INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE TO THE SW OF THE STATE
OVER THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A CONTINUAL SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE REGION. AS ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE
OVER THE CWA...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP WED AND
THU.

IT WILL BE THE SUBSEQUENT ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA THAT WILL
CREATE A MORE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT. AS A RESULT...THE FFA
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME TIME AND LOCATIONS AS ALREADY
POSTED.

FORECAST QPF VALUES THROUGH THU AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM LESS THAN
2 INCHES ACROSS THE SERN COUNTIES...TO OVER 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
OUACHITA AND INTO THE OZARK MOUNTAINS AREAS. A LARGE PORTION OF THIS
WILL FALL WED AND THU...AGAIN WITH AN INCREASING AND MORE
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT DEVELOPING OVER TIME.

RECENT DATA IS STILL SHOWING SOME SLIGHT SHIFTS EAST AND WEST IN THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...SOME CHANGES IN THE HIGHEST
QPF COULD STILL BE SEEN...BUT CONFIDENCE IN MANY AREAS SEEING AT
LEAST SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS BECOMING BETTER OVER TIME. THE ONLY
CAVEAT THAT COULD ALSO STILL CHANGE THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...
COULD BE IF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF AR REDUCES THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE THIS FAR NORTH. IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN...AS HAS HAPPENED IN
SOME EVENTS IN PREVIOUS YEARS...THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE AS
EXTREME. EVEN SO...SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL LOOK LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS SEVERAL MORE UPPER WAVES MOVE THROUGH AND
INTERACT WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE...LIFT NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD AND DAMPEN OUT
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES.
RAIN WILL DIMINISH...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS A SMALL BUT POTENT UPPER LOW MOVES DOWN OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND GIVES THE MEANDERING SURFACE BOUNDARY A PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT...AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS LULL WILL LIKELY NOT LAST
MUCH BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS NOAM LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS
AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE.
&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     61  67  61  65 /  90  90  90  90
CAMDEN AR         64  71  63  70 /  90  90  90  90
HARRISON AR       58  65  56  63 /  80  90  90  90
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  68  61  67 /  90  90  90  90
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  69  62  68 /  90  90  90  90
MONTICELLO AR     63  73  65  71 /  90  80  90  90
MOUNT IDA AR      63  67  60  66 /  90  90  90  90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  67  59  65 /  80  90  90  90
NEWPORT AR        61  68  61  67 /  90  90  90  90
PINE BLUFF AR     63  71  63  70 /  90  90  90  90
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  67  60  66 /  90  90  90  90
SEARCY AR         62  68  62  66 /  90  90  90  90
STUTTGART AR      63  70  63  68 /  90  90  90  90
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-
CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-
GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-
OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...57

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-091100-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-
CALHOUN-BRADLEY-DREW-
500 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM WILL START TO APPROACH ARKANSAS...AND DEVELOP
RAIN...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
WILL START OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS...THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN TO SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. THE FLOODING POTENTIAL
WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT. TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES INCREASING WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS STARTING
WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY...AS A MUCH
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAIN...ARE EXPECTED. AT TIMES RAIN COULD BECOME VERY HEAVY...AND A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. THE FLOODING POTENTIAL
WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT.

PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION...AND THE
RAIN...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD.
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO INCREASE...AS THE STORM SYSTEM
SLOWS DOWN TO OUR WEST AND INTERACTS WITH A STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM
OVER ARKANSAS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE SEEN...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
EASTERN AREAS...4 TO 6 INCHES OVER CENTRAL LOCATIONS...TO 6 TO 8
INCHES IN WESTERN LOCALS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE RAIN AMOUNTS ARE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND
SOME RIVER FLOODING.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING...THE LOCATION
AND AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. THESE ELEMENTS WILL BE FINE TUNED AND
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE. RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SITUATION.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN GRADUALLY LOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND MOVES
EAST ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN
AND ANY FLOODING ARE WELCOME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

59

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