Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
541 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD WILL BE WINDS. EXPECT
NW WINDS TO GUST TO AT LEAST 20-25KT AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY...WITH
CENTRAL TERMINALS SEEING SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 30KT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH
FIRE DANGER TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
/LITRFDLZK/ FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY.

ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS ON TAP TODAY. WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST INTO
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE...WHICH MEANS THAT ONCE THE MIXED LAYER BEGINS
TO DEEPEN AFTER SUNRISE WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD GUSTY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RATHER QUICKLY. THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE
PERFORMED VERY WELL YESTERDAY...AS DID THE HRRR...WITH RESPECT TO
BOTH SUSTAINED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. WENT HEAVILY TOWARDS THOSE
TWO MODELS YESTERDAY...AND HAVE DONE THE SAME THIS MORNING. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 15-25MPH SUSTAINED WINDS...WITH GUSTS CLIMBING INTO THE
30-35 MPH RANGE...TO BEGIN SHOWING UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TODAY.
AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

WINDS WILL FINALLY RELAX AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE
TO NO GUSTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
WIND ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL...ALBEIT
SMALL...WARMING TREND TODAY AND TOMORROW AS WELL. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 TODAY...WITH THE COOLEST AREAS IN
THE NORTH...AND FROM THE LOW 40S TO THE LOW 50S TOMORROW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NOT A LOT OF WHOLESALE CHANGES WILL BE FORTH COMING THIS MORNING
WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN DECENT ENOUGH
AGREEMENT INITIALLY BEFORE DIVERGING SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD AND THE BLENDING OF SOLUTIONS WILL CONTINUE.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN IN PLACE BUT
NOT TO THE EXTENT THAT IT WAS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE ROCKIES. PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA AS A RESULT KEEPING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SHARPENS UP THE
TROUGH EVEN MORE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH.
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY BUT IT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL
SEND TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY WITH A BIT
OF A RECOVERY ON SUNDAY AS FLOW DAMPENS A BIT.

MODELS DIFFERENCES EMERGE EARLY SUNDAY WITH ECMWF BRINGING ANOTHER
TROUGH IN BUT THIS ONE DOES HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. GFS NOT REALLY SHOWING THIS BUT SWINGS A
FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DOES
NOT. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP SOME POPS IN FOR BOTH DAYS WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ANY
ACCUMULATION WOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     38  23  41  28 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         50  30  54  37 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       38  21  44  28 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    48  29  52  35 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  46  27  49  32 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     47  29  50  36 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      49  27  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  38  21  42  27 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        38  23  40  27 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     46  28  49  34 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   47  25  49  30 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         42  23  44  27 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      43  26  46  32 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LOGAN-POLK-SCOTT.

&&

AVIATION...64

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
417 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-101030-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-
CALHOUN-BRADLEY-DREW-
417 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL
PERSIST FROM SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS...WILDFIRE DANGER LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH. STRONG WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
LEVELS...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY OUT OF CONTROL FIRES TO
SPREAD RAPIDLY. THE AREAS OF HIGHEST CONCERN WILL BE IN WESTERN
ARKANSAS WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.