Flash Flood Warning 84, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
646 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.AVIATION...
Upper level high pressure continues over Tennessee. A short wave
on the west side of this high is bringing showers and
thunderstorms to Arkansas, mainly central and south. Stronger
storms are near the Oklahoma border and in the southeast.
Additional storms will move into the southeast corner of the state
for the next 2-3 hours. Rest of the night should be dry but
another short wave rotates around the high Friday for more showers
and thunderstorms. VFR and MVFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 315 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016
)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday

As expected...SCTD convection noted acrs the FA this aftn. The
activity was occurring on the WRN periphery of an upr high that was
centered ovr TN...with a plume of tropical moisture /PW values in
excess of 2 inches/ conts to advect into the region. Do expect the
bulk of this activity to diminish shortly aft sunset this evening.
Opted to keep small rain chcs in the fcst later tngt as a weak
impulse is fcst to lift NWD thru the area.

Not much chg noted with the overall pattern heading into the
weekend. High pres aloft wl rmn centered well E of AR. The resulting
upr flow wl keep plenty of tropical moisture in place ovr the FA.
Sctd convection wl rmn the fcst Fri and Sat...mainly diurnal in
nature. Meanwhile...a fntl bndry wl attempt to apch NWRN AR Fri into
Sat...but wl encounter SWLY flow aloft...which may inhibit it fm
making into the FA.

High temps the next few days wl range fm the mid 80s to lower 90s...
thanks to contd rain chcs/cloud cover. Aftn heat index values are
fcst to rmn blw critical lvls each day...so not headlines planned.

LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday

The extended weather pattern is contingent upon a couple of
important factors. The first is the quasi-stationary front that is
expected to push into northwestern Arkansas before Saturday night.
By Sunday...all 12z model guidance indicates that this boundary will
dissipate or wash out leaving no discernible low-level convergence
or baroclinic signature to speak of. This is contingent upon
thunderstorm activity along the front Friday and Saturday though.
Numerous thunderstorms along and northwest of the front could
reinforce the baroclinicity of the front and cause it to remain in
place on Sunday. Seeing as no models support this solution at this
time...only kept pops in the 20 to 30 percent range.

Assuming the front has dissipated by Sunday...the forecast for
Sunday through Thursday will be very similar. Weak upper level
ridging will prevent any organized weather systems from impacting
Arkansas. We will remain fairly warm and humid from Sunday through
next week...so isolated to scattered thunderstorms can be expected
during the peak heating hours of the day each day with a dry
forecast likely after sunset and through the morning hours of the
day each day. Highs will generally be near or slightly above normal
due to weak high pressure aloft.

The second important contingency to the forecast is keeping a close
eye on any organized tropical system that may develop in the warm
waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The consensus of the 12z model
guidance indicates that any tropical system will remain well east of
Arkansas...however previous model runs indicated that a decaying
tropical system could move over the state next week. This forecast
does not account for any decaying tropical system at all...so if
that looks more likely in later forecasts...significant changes to
the forecast will be necessary in the future. The primary concern in
this unlikely outcome would be heavy rain and the associated
potential for flooding. This is something we will certainly be
keeping an eye on in future forecasts...but the probability is so
low as this time it is unlikely that any decaying tropical system
will impact Arkansas for the next 7 days.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
120 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-261000-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-
CALHOUN-BRADLEY-DREW-
120 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE AREA
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS. WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 105 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT IN GENERAL SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LZK.

64/44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
131 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

ARZ045-046-251915-
PRAIRIE AR-LONOKE AR-
131 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LONOKE AND
SOUTHWESTERN PRAIRIE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 131 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR PARKERS CORNER...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LONOKE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HUMNOKE...                        PARKERS CORNER...
STUTTGART MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...    BRUMMITT...
ALLPORT...                        COY...
SLOVAK...                         SEATON...
CULLER...                         TOMBERLIN...
BLAKEMORE...                      TOLLVILLE...

LAT...LON 3456 9155 3456 9160 3448 9160 3449 9191
      3473 9186 3472 9148
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 212DEG 9KT 3462 9177

CAVANAUGH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
133 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

ARZ055-062-251915-
DALLAS AR-GRANT AR-
133 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DALLAS AND WESTERN
GRANT COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 132 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LEOLA...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SHERIDAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHERIDAN...                       LEOLA...
TULL...                           CARTHAGE...
PRATTSVILLE...                    POYEN...
DOGWOOD...                        JENKINS FERRY STATE PARK...
THIEL...                          BELFAST...
FENTER...                         TULIP...
BUIE...                           BRUSH CREEK...
CROSS ROADS IN GRANT COUNTY...    SLABTOWN...
FARINDALE...                      MILLERVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3404 9271 3415 9268 3441 9267 3441 9262
      3443 9262 3446 9258 3444 9237 3406 9240
      3406 9247 3400 9247
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 207DEG 13KT 3415 9257

CAVANAUGH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
226 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

ARZ054-055-062-252000-
HOT SPRING AR-DALLAS AR-GRANT AR-
226 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL DALLAS...
SOUTHWESTERN GRANT AND SOUTHEASTERN HOT SPRING COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM
CDT...

AT 225 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES WEST OF CARTHAGE...OR 21 MILES SOUTH OF MALVERN...MOVING NORTH
AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEOLA...                          CARTHAGE...
DOGWOOD...                        THIEL...
JENKINS FERRY STATE PARK...       PRINCETON...
WILLOW...                         TULIP...
LONO...                           BRUSH CREEK...
CROSS ROADS IN GRANT COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3389 9261 3397 9273 3406 9281 3426 9280
      3424 9240
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 197DEG 12KT 3407 9268

CAVANAUGH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
230 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

ARZ022-031-038-252015-
CONWAY AR-YELL AR-POPE AR-
230 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL YELL...SOUTHEASTERN
POPE AND SOUTHWESTERN CONWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 230 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER CARDEN BOTTOMS...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RUSSELLVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RUSSELLVILLE...                   ATKINS...
POTTSVILLE...                     OPPELO...
SEQUOYA PARK...                   PETIT JEAN STATE PARK...
HATTIEVILLE...                    HAPPY BEND...
GALLA CREEK WMA...                CARDEN BOTTOMS...
ADA...                            KENWOOD...
PONTOON...                        LAKEVIEW IN YELL COUNTY...
BLACKWELL...                      HOLLA BEND...

LAT...LON 3528 9312 3530 9277 3507 9278 3508 9305
      3509 9315
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 266DEG 10KT 3516 9304

CAVANAUGH