Flash Flood Warning 78, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
628 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

Chances for SHRA/TSRA will remain fairly high through this
afternoon and early evening...activity developing along and ahead
of a cold front approaching from the northwest. Expect MVFR to as
low as LIFR flight conditions...especially under the most intense
activity. Winds will switch to the north and NW behind this
front...with drier air moving into the state. As a result...expect
improvements to VFR conditions for most sites by Sun morning.
However...precip chances and reduced flight rules will still
remain possible at the SRN terminals as the front will only be
arriving near these locations by the end of this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night

Some SHRA with a few rumbles of thunder are moving NE through
portions of central...NRN and NERN sections of the CWA early this
Sat morning...with additional SHRA seen NW of the state along and
ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front will drop SE
into the state by late this afternoon and into the evening
hrs...with SHRA/TSRA remaining possible along and ahead of this
front. Expect scattered to numerous convective activity through
early this evening...but by late this evening into the overnight
period...chances for precip will start to decrease from NW to SE
as the front continues to progress SE through the CWA.

By Sun morning...the cold front will be along or just south of the I-
40 corridor...with only some lingering precip chances expected along
and south of this front. Drier air will filter into the state behind
this front...with dewpts dropping into the 60s and even some 50s
possible across far NRN AR. By late Sun afternoon and into Sun
night...the best precip chances will have dropped south of the
CWA...with the front near the AR/LA border. As a result...will have
a dry forecast to end the short term period. Temps during the period
will remain below normal...this Sat due to the rainfall and cloud
cover...and on Sun as NRLY flow will be seen behind the cold front.

LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday

Sfc high pressure wl be shifting EWD away fm AR on Mon. This wl
allow S/SELY winds to return to the region as the fcst pd
progresses. Meanwhile...the stalled out fntl bndry just to the S of
the FA wl sloly return NWD as a warm fnt thru Tue as a new upr lvl
storm system moves into the SRN Plains States.

As a result...clouds/rain chcs will incrs acrs AR as a WAA pattern
commences over the region. The best rain chcs wl be acrs the NWRN
half of the FA on Tue...closer to the track of the upr lvl impulse.
Fcst rain amts do not appear overly excessive...but wl be monitored
closely due to saturated soils over much of the state.

The warm fnt is fcst to lift to the N of AR by WED...with warmer and
more humid airmass bcmg entrenched acrs the area. A new fntl bndry
wl apch AR fm the NW late in the pd. However...the bndry wl bcm
nearly stationary as it encounters SWLY flow aloft. Sctd convection
wl be possible...mainly ovr the NWRN part of the FA in the vcnty of
the fnt.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
324 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-211000-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-
CALHOUN-BRADLEY-DREW-
324 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW...BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM MAY BE SEEN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW AN INCH
FOR MOST AREAS...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE SEEN. AS A
RESULT...AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL EXIST.

SOME RIVER FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF RECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE WHITE RIVER AT AUGUSTA AND CACHE RIVER AT
PATTERSON WILL CONTINUE TO SEE FLOODING...WITH CRESTS AT AUGUSTA
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MINOR FLOOD CATEGORY. THE CACHE RIVER
MAY RISE TO THE MODERATE FLOOD CATEGORY BY SUNDAY. THE OUACHITA
RIVER IS FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE AT THATCHER LOCK AND DAM THIS
WEEKEND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DRIER WEATHER WILL BE SEEN ON STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LZK.

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