Alert archive / Arkansas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2016

Flash Flood Warning 71, NWS Little Rock, AR

July 30, 2016Drew County, Arkansas

NWS Little Rock, AR issued this flash flood warning at Jul 30, 2016, 7:48 PM CDT for Drew County, Arkansas. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 30, 2016, 7:48 PM CDT (00:48 UTC)
Expired
Jul 30, 2016, 10:45 PM CDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
NWS Little Rock, AR
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

County Drew County, AR

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 149 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 00:00Z, 0.8 hours before the alert went out and 211 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jackson, MS at 00:00Z on 2016-07-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 865 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jackson, MS at 00:00Z on 2016-07-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -7 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
865 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-60 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1302 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-7 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
3 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

418 
WGUS54 KLZK 310048
FFWLZK
ARC043-310345-
/O.NEW.KLZK.FF.W.0071.160731T0048Z-160731T0345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
748 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL DREW COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 1045 PM CDT

* AT 747 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLASH FLOODING IN
  THE TOWN OF MONTICELLO...WITH ROADS UNDERWATER. UP TO THREE INCHES
  OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE LAST HOUR. FLASH FLOODING IS
  ALREADY OCCURRING.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  MONTICELLO...                     WILMAR...
  GREEN HILL...                     LADELLE...
  PLANTERSVILLE...                  PRAIRIE GROVE...
  ENON...                           VALLEY...
  LACEY...                          FLORENCE...
  MONTONGO...                       NEW HOPE IN DREW COUNTY...
  ROCK SPRINGS...                   

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADS...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN! MOST
FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 9196 3377 9191 3377 9162 3339 9159

$$

65

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 30, 2:22 PM CDT, 5 hours 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 30, 2:22 PM CDT, 5 hours 26 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
635 PM CDT JUL 30 2016

.Aviation...

Evening convection will affect KLIT, KPBF and KLLQ and will use VCTS
and Tempo groups at Taf sites. VFR conditions are forecast overall
with MVFR conditions with storms. Have seen heavy rain, gusty winds
to around 25 TO 35 knots with storms and a lot of lightning. The
storms will continue to drift southeast and gradually weaken through
midnight. Overnight, areas of MVFR with isolated showers or
thunderstorms may be seen, with some fog and low clouds forming.
Winds will be light and variable or less than 10 mph from the south.
Sunday will start with patchy MVFR conditions to mainly VFR with
ceilings. Then again isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon to evening. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 222 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday
Scattered convection is ongoing/developing across northern and
western Arkansas this afternoon. Expect this to fill in somewhat and
propagate southward through mostly the western half of the state
through the afternoon and early evening hours. Will carry chance
PoPs into the eastern parts of the forecast area but it appears
western Arkansas will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms
today.

An upper ridge will begin to build back into the region from the
southwest on Sunday. Northwest flow aloft will likely bring one more
MCS into the state during the day tomorrow...so will continue with
chance PoPs for Sunday across the eastern half of the forecast area.
Further west...will hold on to slight chances. The ridge will not be
firmly established by tomorrow afternoon just yet so think some
isolated storms could pop there.

Temperature wise...warm overnight temperatures and highs in the low
90s will be seen.

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday

There's not much I can say without sounding like a broken record,
but here goes.

The upper ridge will expand through the week, choking off large-scale
moisture, allowing for only isolated/widely scattered diurnal
convection. Humidity will remain high, with afternoon heat index
values approaching the 100-105 degree range. Fortunately, the
ridge's influence will start to diminish in the weekend,
bringing a better shot at showers/storms to the area.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No significant fire weather issues are expected through the next
seven days. Minimum humidity will remain high...generally above
the 50th percentile. There will be several chances for isolated to
widely scattered afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms, with the highest chances in the next 48 hours, and
next weekend.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     73  92  75  95 /  30  40  20  20
Camden AR         75  95  76  96 /  20  30  10  20
Harrison AR       69  89  72  93 /  30  40  20  20
Hot Springs AR    75  94  76  95 /  30  30  10  20
Little Rock   AR  75  94  76  96 /  30  30  20  20
Monticello AR     76  94  76  94 /  20  30  20  30
Mount Ida AR      74  93  75  94 /  30  30  10  20
Mountain Home AR  70  90  73  94 /  30  40  20  20
Newport AR        73  91  74  94 /  20  40  20  30
Pine Bluff AR     74  93  75  94 /  20  40  20  30
Russellville AR   74  94  75  96 /  30  40  20  20
Searcy AR         74  93  74  95 /  30  40  20  30
Stuttgart AR      74  93  76  94 /  20  40  20  30
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...57 / Long Term...64
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 30, 3:15 PM CDT, 4 hours 33 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
315 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-311000-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-CALHOUN-
BRADLEY-DREW-
315 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN THREATS OF THE SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS. SOME HAIL WILL BE SEEN...WITH ALSO LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS THAT COULD LEAD TO SPOTTY FLASH FLOODING. AFTER
SUNSET...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE FORECAST ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAY THREATS.  THEN HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARKANSAS FROM THE
PLAINS. UNDER THE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL DECREASE.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES MAY EXCEED 105 DEGREES
IN SPOTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT REPORTS ARE REQUESTED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LZK.

46/59

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 30, 5:55 PM CDT, 1 hour 53 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
555 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

ARZ034-302345-
WOODRUFF AR-
555 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WOODRUFF COUNTY
UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 555 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR HUNTER... OR 15 MILES NORTH OF BRINKLEY. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HUNTER...                         COTTON PLANT...
BECTON...                         HOWELL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3501 9125 3513 9126 3518 9118 3517 9112
      3509 9108 3501 9112
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 258DEG 3KT 3510 9120

65
Special weather statement, Jul 30, 6:07 PM CDT, 1 hour 41 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
607 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

ARZ056-063-064-068-069-302330-
JEFFERSON AR-BRADLEY AR-LINCOLN AR-DREW AR-CLEVELAND AR-
607 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BRADLEY...
SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...NORTHWESTERN DREW...WESTERN LINCOLN AND
CLEVELAND COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 607 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR LAMONT TO NEAR
ELLISVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PINE BLUFF...                     WARREN...
STAR CITY...                      RISON...
WILMAR...                         KINGSLAND...
HEBRON...                         TIPTON...
MADDING...                        HERBINE...
RICHARDSON...                     NEBO...
LINWOOD...                        WHITEFIELD...
CANE CREEK STATE PARK...          TOLEDO...
WEEKS...                          BRANDON...
KEDRON...                         COTTONDALE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3363 9232 3368 9232 3370 9233 3406 9226
      3408 9223 3422 9222 3429 9171 3360 9184
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 272DEG 45KT 3415 9219 3371 9229

226
Special weather statement, Jul 30, 6:51 PM CDT, 57 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
651 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

ARZ056-063-064-068-069-310030-
JEFFERSON AR-BRADLEY AR-LINCOLN AR-DREW AR-CLEVELAND AR-
651 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BRADLEY...
SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON...DREW...LINCOLN AND EASTERN CLEVELAND
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 651 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
FEENYVILLE TO 7 MILES EAST OF HERMITAGE...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONTICELLO...                     WARREN...
STAR CITY...                      WILMAR...
GRADY...                          WOODVILLE...
GREEN HILL...                     HERBINE...
LADELLE...                        NEBO...
WHITEFIELD...                     CANE CREEK STATE PARK...
BRANDON...                        PLANTERSVILLE...
FEENYVILLE...                     LANGFORD...
LITTLE BAYOU METO PARK...         INGALLS...
PRAIRIE GROVE...                  SUMPTER...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3338 9215 3410 9204 3419 9157 3339 9166
      3340 9199 3338 9196 3337 9197
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 248DEG 21KT 3406 9198 3349 9204

226
Local storm report, Jul 30, 7:02 PM CDT, 46 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
702 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE PINE HILL ESTATES 34.91N  91.94W
07/30/2016                   LONOKE             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TREE WAS BLOWN OVER WITH NUMEROUS BRANCHES KNOCKED
            DOWN AS WELL. SOME SHINGLES WERE REMOVED FROM A HOUSE
            AND SOME PLAYGROUND EQUIPMENT WAS BLOWN OVER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1600084

JHOOD
Special weather statement, Jul 30, 7:08 PM CDT, 40 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
708 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

ARZ057-310100-
ARKANSAS AR-
708 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS COUNTY
UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 708 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR DE WITT... OR 12 MILES WEST OF WHITE RIVER NATIONAL WILDLIFE
REFUGE... MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DE WITT...                        DE LUCE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3417 9138 3435 9142 3443 9120 3417 9114
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 282DEG 18KT 3427 9128

65
Special weather statement, Jul 30, 7:40 PM CDT, 8 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
740 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

ARZ064-065-069-310115-
DESHA AR-LINCOLN AR-DREW AR-
740 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DESHA...EASTERN DREW AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 740 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR OMEGA TO NEAR
SNYDER...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DUMAS...                          DERMOTT...
ROHWER...                         ARKANSAS CITY...
MITCHELLVILLE...                  TILLAR...
WATSON...                         WINCHESTER...
MCGEHEE...                        OMEGA...
LUCCA LANDING...                  KELSO...
REED...                           JEROME...
BAXTER...                         PICKENS IN DESHA COUNTY...
GOURD...                          MCARTHUR...
MASONVILLE...                     SELMA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3396 9097 3398 9109 3393 9101 3384 9107
      3378 9099 3379 9113 3373 9115 3368 9103
      3370 9122 3361 9113 3352 9125 3357 9145
      3339 9146 3340 9168 3390 9159 3394 9116
      3401 9116 3407 9091
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 259DEG 33KT 3384 9154 3322 9165

226

The office that day

Everything else NWS Little Rock, AR issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 30, 7:08 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLZKArkansas52 min
Jul 30, 7:40 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLZKDesha35 min
Jul 31, 3:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKPope, Yell28 min
Jul 31, 4:11 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLZKMarion49 min
Jul 31, 4:42 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLZKMarion48 min
Jul 31, 5:03 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLZKBaxter, Fulton, Izard42 min
Jul 31, 5:39 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLZKConway, Van Buren51 min
Jul 31, 5:57 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLZKIzard48 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arkansas, 2016Every flash flood warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.