Flash Flood Warning 57, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1219 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 06z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

Some SHRA/TSRA will remain possible overnight...generally over
portions of central and NRN AR. Have mentioned primarily VCTS as
a result...though may have to mentioned in TEMPO or prevailing if
potential to impact specific terminals increases. The potential
for precip activity will continue through Sat afternoon as
well...with some MVFR or lower flight conditions possible. Some
patchy fog may also be seen during the morning hrs...especially in
areas that see lightest winds combined with recent precip.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 620 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016
)

DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...

AVIATION...

Some SHRA/TSRA will continue to be possible during the overnight
period...though exact location will be somewhat uncertain. As a
result...will just mention some VCTS/VCSH. Chances for precip
will remain possible for Sat...with a similar scenario expected
regarding coverage and location. Some patchy fog will also be
possible...especially across the NRN sites where some precip has
been seen recently.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 305 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016)

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday Night

Sctd SHRA/TSRA have rapidly formed acrs parts of N-CNTRL and NERN AR
this aftn...assocd with MCV that worked into NW AR earlier in the
day. Severe t-storm watch in effect for those areas until 9 pm tngt.
Have adjusted POPS accordingly to reflect current trends...with
dcrsg coverage expected later this evening as the upr energy shifts
away fm the FA.

Upr rdg is fcst to contract ovr the FA heading into weekend...
allowing a series of upr impulses to move SEWD acrs AR. This wl
result in several more convective complexes to form upstream and
eventually affect the region. Timing and coverage of each sys wl be
the main fcst concern. Still expect to see the best chcs acrs the
NERN half of the FA thru Sat ngt. Rainfall amts upwards of an inch
or two can be expected ovr NRN AR...with lesser chcs the further S
you go. Rain and clouds wl hold down high temps ovr NRN and parts of
CNTRL AR...with the warmest readings in the SRN part of the CWA.

Long Term...Sunday Through Friday

The extended forecast will start with rain in the forecast with the
nearly stalled frontal boundary over AR. The best chances will be
over central and northern AR on Sunday, then as the boundary is
expected to lift northward on Monday, a lower chance and more in the
east to northeast will be seen. On Tuesday and much of the rest of
the week, a more isolated afternoon to evening chance of convection
will be seen during the heat of the day...as the upper high pressure
ridge builds more into the Plains and caps some of the potential.
The overall chance of strong to severe storms will be low and
isolated. Otherwise...Temperatures will generally run above normal
values...as humidity levels remain high. Heat index values will also
remain in the 90s to 100 degrees to around 105 most days.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...226

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
930 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-091000-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-
CALHOUN-BRADLEY-DREW-
930 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN ARKANSAS TODAY AS A STORM COMPLEX MOVES FROM OKLAHOMA INTO
ARKANSAS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN THREATS WITH
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AS
WELL AS LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

ALSO...HOT TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE TODAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO
105 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. EXTRA
CAUTION SHOULD BE TAKEN TO MINIMIZE THE RISK OF THE HEAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS
THE STATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL. MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE STATE.

RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. UNFORTUNATELY, THE HEAT WILL RETURN TO THE
STATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S BY MID-WEEK. WITH THESE TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE
MOISTURE, DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES MAY
BE SEEN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LZK.

226/59

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1024 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

ARZ023-031-032-090400-
VAN BUREN AR-CONWAY AR-FAULKNER AR-
1024 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VAN BUREN...
NORTHWESTERN FAULKNER AND NORTHEASTERN CONWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM
CDT...

AT 1024 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER BETHLEHEM...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF MORRILTON...MOVING NORTH AT
15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DAMASCUS...                       TWIN GROVES...
BETHLEHEM...                      CATHOLIC POINT...
SOLGOHACHIA...                    LANTY...
MALLET TOWN...                    SPRINGFIELD...
HILL CREEK...                     MIDDLETON...
WHIPPLE...                        BIRDTOWN...
AUSTIN IN CONWAY COUNTY...        MT OLIVE IN CONWAY COUNTY...
MARTINVILLE...                    CENTER RIDGE...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3518 9252 3524 9273 3546 9268 3542 9236
TIME...MOT...LOC 0324Z 199DEG 11KT 3529 9260

62

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
111 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

ARZ012-013-090645-
SEARCY AR-NEWTON AR-
111 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN NEWTON AND WEST CENTRAL
SEARCY COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM CDT...

AT 111 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PIERCETOWN...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JASPER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WESTERN GROVE...                  POINT PETER...
EULA...                           PIERCETOWN...
CARVER...                         BASS...
YARDELLE...                       MT JUDEA...
SNOWBALL...                       GUM SPRINGS IN NEWTON COUNTY...
VENDOR...                         CROSSROAD...
WOOLUM RECREATION AREA...         HASTY...
LURTON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3591 9274 3576 9307 3589 9322 3612 9302
      3612 9299
TIME...MOT...LOC 0611Z 227DEG 25KT 3588 9309

226