Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
259 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF CONVECTION...WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER AR...WITH SEVERAL REPORTS
OF SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET...AS WELL HAS HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUE AIR...HAS MOVED INTO
AR...AND WIDE SPREAD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED. FORECAST WILL HAVE
A HIGH PERCENT OF RAIN. ALSO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED...AND CURRENT TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT OVER SW AR UNTIL
10 PM. THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS...WITH A STRONG
SW UPPER FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SPC DAY ONE HAS ENHANCED
AND SLIGHT RISK OVER ALL OF AR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON TO TONIGHT WILL HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SEVERE
POTENTIAL. CURRENT CLOUDS AND RAIN OVER AR SHOULD HOLD INSTABILITY
AT BAY...AND SEVERE STORM THREAT MAY BE HELD DOWN A BIT. A VEERING
PROFILE REMAINS OVER AR...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN STILL DO EXPECTED SOME FLASH FLOODING
WITH STORMS DUE TO HIGH WATER CONTENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT
MOVE THROUGH AR UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND EVEN A LOWER CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL BE HELD AFTER FRONT UNTIL THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR
MASS FILTERS IN OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
VALUES...COOLING A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

COMPARATIVELY QUIET LONG TERM...AS SUCH HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. LONG TERM BEGINS
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...AT
THIS POINT HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST AS MOISTURE REMAINS
LACKING. DID GO AND INCLUDE POPS WITH THE NEXT FRONT WEDNESDAY...AS
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE A BIT BETTER. HOWEVER DIFFERENCES STILL
EXIST WITH THE MODELS AND ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     59  76  45  65 /  90  30  10  10
CAMDEN AR         64  79  49  69 /  90  50  10  10
HARRISON AR       56  68  41  61 /  60  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    61  76  46  66 /  90  30  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  61  77  48  67 /  90  40  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     64  80  51  69 / 100  70  30   0
MOUNT IDA AR      60  75  44  64 /  80  20   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  57  70  42  63 /  80  10   0  10
NEWPORT AR        60  77  46  66 / 100  30  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     63  79  49  67 / 100  50  20   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   59  73  44  65 /  80  20   0  10
SEARCY AR         60  77  46  66 /  90  30  10   0
STUTTGART AR      62  78  48  67 / 100  50  20   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-MONROE-OUACHITA-PIKE.

&&

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...65

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
345 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-311015-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-CALHOUN-
BRADLEY-DREW-
345 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE. HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE SEEN WITH THE STORMS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
SEEN.

WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS ABOVE
3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE SLOW MOVING STORMS.
ISOLATED AREAS OF 3 INCHES TO AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES OF RAIN MAY BE
SEEN IF THE STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WHILE ANY PART
OF THE STATE COULD SEE SEVERE WEATHER...ONCE AGAIN THE SOUTH APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. ALL OF ARKANSAS IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER BUT AREAS SOUTH OF A MENA TO HOT SPRINGS TO STUTTGART
LINE WILL SEE AN ENHANCED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AND
A TORNADO RISK ALSO EXISTS. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE ENHANCED RISK
AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING EAST THURSDAY MORNING...AND
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE STATE AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
ARKANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

56/59

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
248 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 W DOWNTOWN LITTLE ROC 34.75N 92.35W
03/30/2016                   PULASKI            AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

            FLASH FLOODING REPORTED IN THE AREA.

&&

MBROWN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
253 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S N LITTLE ROCK ARPT  34.81N 92.26W
03/30/2016                   PULASKI            AR   NWS EMPLOYEE

            FLASH FLOODING REPORTED ALONG VARIOUS ROADS.

&&

MBROWN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
257 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

ARZ033-045-046-302045-
WHITE AR-PRAIRIE AR-LONOKE AR-
257 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LONOKE...WESTERN WHITE
AND NORTHWESTERN PRAIRIE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 257 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WARD TO NEAR LONOKE...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CABOT...               SEARCY...              LONOKE...
BEEBE...               WARD...                AUSTIN IN LONOKE COU...
JUDSONIA...            KENSETT...             HIGGINSON...
WEST POINT...          CROSBY...              THURMAN...
MCRAE...               OLD AUSTIN...          SISEMORE...
PARNELL...             MCCREANOR...           SYLVANIA...
METO...                GARNER...

LAT...LON 3550 9173 3503 9152 3464 9194 3509 9210
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 209DEG 38KT 3506 9202 3475 9194

224

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
351 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNW BURNS PARK        34.82N 92.32W
03/30/2016                   PULASKI            AR   NWS EMPLOYEE

            THE INTERSECTION OF CRYSTAL HILL RD AND MACARTHUR DR WAS
            FLOODED.

&&

62

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
444 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LITTLE ROCK             34.73N 92.27W
03/30/2016                   PULASKI            AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            FLASH FLOODING WAS REPORTED AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ARKANSAS
            AT LITTLE ROCK CAMPUS. COLEMAN CREEK...WHICH RUNS THROUGH
            CAMPUS...OVERFLOWED ITS BANKS. WATER WAS FLOWING OVER THE
            28TH STREET BRIDGE.

&&

57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
447 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LITTLE ROCK             34.73N 92.27W
03/30/2016                   PULASKI            AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FLASH FLOODING WAS REPORTED AT THE INTERSECTION OF VAN
            BUREN AND MARKHAM STREETS.

&&

57