Severe Thunderstorm Warning 247, NWS Baltimore/Washington

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
257 PM EDT Mon Aug 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Weak low pressure will gradually move offshore today
and tonight as a front drifts southward. High pressure will build
in from the north during the middle of the week, then move
offshore late in the week. A cold front is expected to cross the
area Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...Sct showers and t-storms
expected until evening as a cdfnt sags slowly swd. Storm motion
will be relatively slow 10-15 kt which may pose an isolated flash
flooding threat but mid-level dry air will likely reduce precip
efficiency. Perhaps, an isolated wind damage threat, but most
storms should remain sub-severe. Clearing expected overnight which
may lead to patchy fog especially with moist soils from recent
rainfall.

Drier air will continue to filter in Tue but not dry enough to
completely suppress shower development. A convergence line is
expected to set up along the Chesapeake Bay which may trigger a
few showers or t-storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...High pressure
builds further southward Wed suppressing shower development and
providing fair weather conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface high moves away from our
region allowing for southerly return flow to develop, so could see
some showers and thunderstorms, mainly terrain induced. This
continues into Friday and with a cold front approaching from the
northwest, showers and thunderstorms are again possible. The front
moves across on Saturday and slowly pushes south into the night,
which could bring more widespread precipitation to our CWA. Drier
conditions expected behind the front with possible showers and
thunderstorms to our south. High temperatures will be in the upper
80s and low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...T-storms likely at KBWI
and KMTN until 00Z with brief MVFR conditions. Patchy MVFR fog
overnight. Sct showers again possible tomorrow afternoon.

Mainly VFR conditions expected for Thursday through Saturday,
with some showers and thunderstorms possible, bringing periods of
sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...Sct showers and t-storms through mid evening and again
Tue and Wed. Possible SCA conditions Wed over the lower portions
of the MD Chesapeake Bay.

Sub-SCA conditions expected as winds will be below SCA criteria.
Showers and thunderstorms possible over the waters during this
period could bring gusty winds.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...IMR/LFR
MARINE...IMR/LFR

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