Gale Warning 38, NWS Baltimore/Washington

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
106 PM EST Sat Dec 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will cross the region from south to north today,
followed by a cold front from northwest to southeast on Sunday.
High pressure will build back into the region for the first half
of next week. Another storm system may affect the region Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Precipitation has made its way to the Eastern Shore as
temperatures rise above freezing. All Warnings and Advisories have
expired, as no new accretion is expected. Melting will be slow,
especially across northern Maryland which is still below freezing.
Have once again trimmed high temperatures, especially across the
north-central part of the forecast area. Energy needs to go to
melting before appreciable temperature gains can be realized.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will continue to lift into the Great Lakes tonight.
Warm air/higher dew points will continue to advect into the area.
This will likely lead to low clouds and fog. Any rainfall should
be limited to light showers or drizzle.

The low will drag a cold front from west to east on Sunday, which
should bring a period of fairly widespread rainfall. A strong
temperature gradient will exist along the front, so non-diurnal
falling temperatures can be expected across much of the area as
cold air arrives during the afternoon. The timing of the front is
a little questionable, but out ahead of it, highs will likely
reach the 60s...most likely south and east of DC, but could
include areas back to the Blue Ridge. Rain will change to snow in
the upslope area, with an inch or so accumulation possible. Since
there will be some jet energy and mid-level frontogenetical
forcing behind the surface front, there could be some
precipitation regeneration in the cold air. Do not see enough
evidence of snow (or even sleet) occurring to include it east of
the mountains for now. A period of gusty winds will also follow
the front.

High pressure building to the north will bring a return of colder
air to start the new week. The bulk of guidance keeps any low
pressure forming along the front to impact areas to our south. May
have to watch southern MD for Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Canadian high pressure will dominate Tuesday and Wednesday, with
slowly moderating temperatures. Highs on Tuesday will remain a bit
below normal, but should rise slightly above normal on Wednesday
as the high slides east and the flow becomes more southerly,
allowing milder air to push north. This is well timed in advance
of the next storm system moving in from the west. This is a
northern stream system which is able to tap some Gulf warmth and
moisture as it treks across the northern Plains and Great Lakes,
allowing precip to mainly be of the non-wintry variety (i.e.,
rain) on Thursday. A little wintry precip may occur right at the
start, especially if it begins before any radiational cooling has
time to mix out. Temps behind the system may drop back below
normal a bit on Friday, but severe cold such as we saw this week
is not expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Have a few pockets where flight conditions have jumped from IFR
right to VFR. Have forecast improvement expected this afternoon;
however, due to the transitory nature of this hole, TAFs are much
more pessimistic than these few observations.

Low clouds and fog will likely return tonight; a good chance for
IFR. Cold front crosses the area on Sunday, with another period of
rain and reduced cigs/vsbys. Gusty NW winds will follow the front
through Sunday evening. High pressure brings tranquil weather
Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly flow remains established through the first part of
Sunday. SCA level winds may be somewhat sporadic, but the threat
will persist. Strong winds aloft should have trouble mixing down
during this period. FZRA/RA this morning followed by foggy
conditions developing tonight. Cold front crosses Sunday with more
rain and wind shift to the NW. Best chance of gales will be just
behind the front late afternoon/evening, but do not have
confidence to go above 30 kt for now. High pressure should bring
lighter winds for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ530>543.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...HTS/ADS/RCM
MARINE...ADS/RCM

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1155 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     FREEZING RAIN    S WINDTREE VALLEY       39.67N  76.65W
12/17/2016  M0.20 INCH       BALTIMORE          MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1605197

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1157 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     FREEZING RAIN    E BURLINGTON            39.34N  78.92W
12/17/2016  M0.20 INCH       MINERAL            WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1605198

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1239 PM EST SAT DEC 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     FREEZING RAIN    BWI AIRPORT             39.17N  76.67W
12/17/2016  E0.20 INCH       ANNE ARUNDEL       MD   OTHER FEDERAL

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1605199

JACKSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1251 PM EST SAT DEC 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1249 PM     FREEZING RAIN    2 E MARTINSBURG         39.46N  77.94W
12/17/2016  M0.20 INCH       BERKELEY           WV   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1605200

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
109 PM EST SAT DEC 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     FREEZING RAIN    SE BUNKER HILL          39.33N  78.05W
12/17/2016  M0.30 INCH       BERKELEY           WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1605201

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
138 PM EST SAT DEC 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     FREEZING RAIN    S SAN MAR               39.55N  77.64W
12/17/2016  M0.40 INCH       WASHINGTON         MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1605202

DH