Gale Warning 34, NWS Baltimore/Washington

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
249 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A warm front will lift north through the area Tuesday.
An area of low pressure will move across the area Wednesday with a
cold frontal passage Wednesday night. High pressure will return to
the region during the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...Strengthening warm air advection
pattern on a 50+kt low-level jet will lead to thickening clouds
and showers tonight mainly after midnight. Temperatures will
remain mainly steady tonight with a warm front lifting through the
area Tue morning. It will be breezy to windy especially at higher
elevations and over the waters, but speeds should remain below
advisory/gale warning criteria due to stable low-levels. Showers
should begin to exit the area during the mid-afternoon hrs as warm
front lifts north and mid-levels dry out. About half inch of rain
is expected on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...Shortwave-
ridge aloft and associated subsidence should be conducive to
widespread low clouds and fog Tue night. MOS guidance is showing
strong signal for development of dense fog. On Wed, upper low over
the upper midwest moves across the western Great Lks. Models
indicate significant height falls in the order of 200 meters will
occur over the area between 12Z Wed and 12Z Thu promoting large
scale forcing for upward vertical motion. A new sfc low develops
over the OH valley Wed with showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
developing over the area Wed and continuing into Wed evening
along/ahead of a cdfnt. There could be strong gusty winds Wed
afternoon and evening given strong environmental flow and marginal
instability (200-400 J/kg of CAPE). Another quarter to half inch
of rain is expected. Frontal zone clears the area by 06Z Thu with
showers ending.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...High pressure builds in behind
cold front on Monday and remains into Sunday... therefore another
period of dry conditions is expected Thursday into Sunday. Sunday
into Monday guidance is in disagreement... GFS shows an upper
level shortwave trough late on Sunday into Monday... while the
Euro shows a warm front lifting from the Gulf states. Either
scenario, there will be an increase in chance of precipitation
sometime on Sunday and into Monday.

Temperatures will be near or slightly above normal, with high
temperatures in the 40s and 50s, and low temperatures mainly in the
30s, and some 40s... higher elevations could see some 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Showers moving in late
tonight with low-level wind shear and developing IFR conditions.
Widespread LIFR/VLIFR conditions Tue night under shortwave-ridge
aloft and weak pressure gradient. Another round of showers Wed
with gusty winds and MVFR/IFR conditions. Cdfnt pushes through the
area Wed night with drying conditions and shifting winds.

Dry conditions expected for Thursday into Saturday with high
pressure dominating weather conditions. So, mainly VFR conditions
expected.

&&

.MARINE...Solid SCA conditions expected tonight and especially
Tue. Kept winds below gale conditions for now given stable low-
levels. Best chance for gales would be over the lower Chesapeake
Bay.

Dry conditions expected for Thursday into Saturday with high
pressure dominating weather conditions. So, mainly VFR conditions
expected. Gusty winds possible Friday into Friday night, so small
craft advisory may be needed.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Elevated water levels are expected Tue
and Wed due to strong srly flow. At this time, no coastal flooding
is expected, but this will need to be monitored closely.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ531>534-
     536>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ530-
     535.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...IMR/LFR
MARINE...IMR/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR

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