Gale Warning 12, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
301 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BRIEFLY DOMINATE
THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA.
A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED EAST TO WEST FROM SOUTHERN MAINE
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK...SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL MICHIGAN.
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THERE TOWARDS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.
ALOFT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN A STEADY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR...RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE BIGGEST ANOMALIES AT PRESENT ARE
WELL INLAND AWAY FROM THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE TIDAL WATERS.

TONIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL HEAD EAST INTO
CANADA...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT EASTWARD TOWARDS US.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD KEEP SOME WIND AROUND THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WAS TEMPTED TO POST A WIND ADVISORY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET PROGGED TO APPROACH 50
KNOTS...BUT RIGHT NOW THINK ANY HIGH GUSTS WILL BE CONFINED TO
ISOLATED HIGHER PROMONTORIES...RESULTING IN LITTLE IF ANY REAL
IMPACT. THE WIND SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERAUTURES UP THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH READINGS LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 40S...PERHAPS EVEN 50S
IN SOME SPOTS.

LATE AT NIGHT FORCING WITH THE FRONT AND LIMITED AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL PUSH EAST AND BRING SHOWERS TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW SPRITZES MAY MAKE IT FURTHER EAST BEFORE DAWN SO
HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE VORT MAX ALOFT SO THIS MAY HELP GET A
FEW MORE SHOWERS GOING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE BAY...WITH
NOTABLY HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA DURING THE EARLY-MID MORNING.
AFTER THAT...NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPING WIND WILL BRING SOME DECENT
GUSTS THANKS TO THE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING. COOLING ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY MONDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE
AREAS WITH DECENT DOWNSLOPING TOWARDS THE EAST THIS EFFECT WILL BE
LIMITED AND SOME SPOTS NEAR THE BAY COULD WELL END UP WARMER ON
MONDAY THAN TODAY THANKS TO THE DECREASED INFLUENCE OF THE COOL
WATERS.

HEIGHTS RISE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE MOVES IN ALOFT
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BETTER WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING MONDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL TURN
OUT REASONABLY MILD FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MARCH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER MONDAY NIGHT BUT MAY START TO PICK UP LATER TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS NOTABLY STRONGER THAN THE ONE MOVING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH AND BETTER MOISTURE
FETCH. WE APPEAR TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR EARLY ON AS WELL SO
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD. SOME LEADING SHOWERS MAY
AFFECT THE AREA ESPECIALLY LATER AT NIGHT BUT OVERALL ODDS OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ARE STILL LOW TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE COUPLE OF SYSTEMS
APPROACHING DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. TRENDS HAVE REVERSED FROM
YESTERDAY AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS A MORE
AMPLIFIED/FURTHER WEST MID-WEEK SYSTEM...LEADING TO STRONGER
CONFLUENCE IN ITS WAKE SUPPRESSING THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTH. EXEMPLIFYING THIS TREND AND UNCERTAINTY IS THE
ECMWF...WHICH HAD A WIDESPREAD 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW IN ITS 00Z RUN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHEN ITS 12Z RUN NOW HAS LESS THAN AN
INCH. THE 12Z UKMET/GFS HAVE FOLLOWED A MORE AMPLIFIED TREND WITH
THE FIRST SYSTEM AND SHEAR OUT THE SECOND SHORTWAVE SO MUCH THAT
BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE EAST COAST THERE IS NO SURFACE
REFLECTION AT ALL. ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED MORE SUPPRESSED AS WELL.

THE EVOLUTION OF A MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM DURING THE MID-WEEK
TAKES A FAVORABLE TRACK FROM OHIO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET SUGGESTING ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. IF THIS TREND HOLDS...A FORCED LINE OF LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS COULD BECOME AN ISSUE
WEDNESDAY.

BOTTOM LINE IS THE ENERGY/WAVE PACKET RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
EPISODE OF STORMINESS IS STILL OVER A DATA VOID AREA OF THE NORTH-
CENTRAL PACIFIC WHERE MODELS NOTORIOUSLY STRUGGLE WITH
INITIALIZATION IN THE STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES...AND THAT IS WHERE
THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY IS STEMMING FROM. UNTIL THESE FEATURES ARE
BETTER RESOLVED AS THEY COME ONSHORE OF WESTERN NOAM IN THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS...MODELS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BUT NO RESTRICTONS ANTICIPATED.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE
TONIGHT...BUT POTENT LOW LEVEL JET MAY CAUSE SOME WIND SHEAR
ISSUES OVERNIGHT. AFTER FRONT PASSES EARLY MONDAY WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP T0 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. DIMINISHING
WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE NEXT INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE BEFORE DAWN
WEDNESDAY BUT PROBABLY STAYING VFR.

SUB-VFR LKLY WED IN RA. SLY FLOW 10-20 KTS W/ GUSTS TO 30 KTS
PSBL W/ LLWS IF TREND FOR STRONGER CD FNT MATERIALIZES. VFR WED
NGT-THU W/ NWLY FLOW 10-20 KTS FOLLOWING FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING SPOTTY SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AND THEN A MORE
WIDESPREAD GUSTY WIND WITH SCA AFFECTING MOST PLACES MOST OF
MONDAY. WINDS RELAX MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THEN MAY RISE BACK
TO SCA LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM
WEST WITH INCREASING RISK OF SHOWERS.

SCA LIKELY WITH GALES POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY...WITH SCA LIKELY AGAIN IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...RCM/DFH
MARINE...RCM/DFH

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