Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
425 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...
09Z OBS INDICATE DRYLINE HOLDING POSITION ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AS SHORTWAVE HAS BEGUN MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SACREMENTOS.
CI HAS BEGUN SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CURRENTLY
APPROACHING PARMER COUNTY. AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS BETWEEN 9Z-12Z...DRIER AIR TO THE WEST
MIXING TO THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EASTWARD ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BY NOON. THETA E AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE
SURFACE LOW PROGRESSING FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO SW OK WILL
RESULT IN ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS.

DRY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS WEST TEXAS BEHIND
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS IT PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON...COMPRESSIONAL WINDS WILL INCH FRIDAYS HIGHS TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES DESPITE EARLY CLOUD
COVER. OFF THE CAPROCK TO THE EAST WILL SEE MORE SUN AND WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE TX/NM BORDER WITH POTENTIAL ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE I20 CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL EASE
AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...
THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER FOR THE FCST AREA WILL EJECT FROM SRN
CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEEKEND OPENING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES.
HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A JET STREAK FROM NRN
NEW MEXICO TO THE OZARKS. THE FCST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHILE IN THE MID-LEVELS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL DEVELOP OVER A VERY COOL AIR MASS /AN AIR MASS THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/. THAT COMBINATION WILL
BRING ABOUT A 24 HOUR PERIOD OF LIFT THAT SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY QUIET AS NW FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE SRN PLAINS. A TROUGH IN THAT NW FLOW COULD BRING SOME
STORMS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NRN NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE NWRN
PART OF THE FCST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES LOOK NICE AND COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH PRIMARILY 60S SUNDAY AND 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY. A RECOVERY
TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME MID TO LATE WEEK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS EDGES EWD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

55/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
602 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

TXZ021>044-301115-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
602 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS
AND THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THAT ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
632 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

TXZ028-034-291200-
LAMB TX-HOCKLEY TX-
632 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LAMB AND NORTHWESTERN
HOCKLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 700 AM CDT...

AT 632 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
PEP...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LITTLEFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LITTLEFIELD...AMHERST AND PEP.

LAT...LON 3412 10244 3395 10218 3369 10250 3377 10261
      3388 10262
TIME...MOT...LOC 1132Z 218DEG 24KT 3381 10254

07