Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
704 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016

.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DRYLINE FROM
KLBB TO KPVW INITIALLY WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDER GENERATING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE
EVENING WITH BEST CHANCE MOVING INTO KCDS LATE EVENING TO EARLY
MORNING THURSDAY. STORMS ALSO APPEAR WILL BRUSH CLOSE ENOUGH TO
KPVW SO ADDED TEMPO THUNDER GROUPS AT KPVW AS WELL AS ALREADY IN
THE KCDS TAF. LESS CERTAIN STORMS WILL MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS
KLBB SO STILL NOT INDICATED. SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST BEHIND A SURFACE OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT BOUNDARY AND LIKELY
TO SPREAD MOSTLY A LOW MVFR CLOUD LAYER BACK INTO THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING ON
THURSDAY WITH EVENTUAL TURN TO VFR EXPECTED. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016/

SHORT TERM...
EYES ARE POINTED TO THE NORTHWEST AWAITING INITIATION OF WHAT WILL
BE AN MCS THAT WILL ROLL SEWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL NUDGE POPS UP
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FCST SOLIDLY INTO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND EVEN A
SLIVER OF NO PRECIP MENTION ACROSS THE WEST. FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO
SERN ZONES AFTER 06Z WITH THE MCS LIKELY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z.

COOLER...DRIER AIR MASS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE MCS AND THE MAIN
DRIVER FOR THIS SYSTEM...A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ROTATING AROUND THE
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW THAT THIS AFTERNOON IS DRIFTING EWD OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SUNSHINE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS UP INTO THE 70S
DESPITE THE COOL AIR MASS. OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE FOR FCST
HIGH TEMPS. DEW POINT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
RESULTING STABILITY WILL PRECLUDE POPS AND USHER IN A QUIETER PERIOD
OF WEATHER.

LONG TERM...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER BACK TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A
LEE TROF DEVELOPS CREATING THE BEGINNINGS OF WHAT WILL BE BREEZY
DAYS AHEAD. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH /HIGHEST ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES/ AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AS A DRYLINE PUSHES ACROSS THE FA. CONVECTION LOOKS DOUBTFUL ALONG
THE DRYLINE AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WHICH IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH. ANY MENTIONABLE POPS WILL BE KEPT OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING. THE DRYLINE WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
RETREAT LATE SATURDAY BEFORE SURGING EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL AGAIN VEER THIS TIME TO
THE WEST AND WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH AS THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
DRY. SOME WINDS MAY BE HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE.
CONVECTION LOOKS POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF OUR FA BY SUNDAY EVENING AS
A SHORTWAVE MEETS UP WITH THE DRYLINE. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN A BIT
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE REGION. THIS DOES
NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER LEE TROF DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS THEN DIVERGE A BIT BEYOND MONDAY AS THE GFS KEEPS A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER WY WHICH WOULD HELP KEEP
WINDS ON THE /RELATIVE/ LOW SIDE...20-25 MPH. THE ECMWF DIGS THE LOW
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHEASTERN CO. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A
WINDY DAY...30+ MPH. GIVEN THE LENGTH OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND THEN
AS WELL AS CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES WINDS IN THE FORECAST WILL BE
KEPT ON THE LOWER SIDE.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/99/05

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1015 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 SSW ANTON             33.73N 102.19W
04/20/2016  M59 MPH          HOCKLEY            TX   MESONET

            MEASURED BY WEST TX MESONET. ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1600080

MCZ

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1051 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1043 PM     HAIL             DICKENS                 33.62N 100.84W
04/20/2016  E0.75 INCH       DICKENS            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1600082

MCZ