Severe Thunderstorm Warning 249, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
340 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Shower and t-storm activity was on the increase across the forecast
area this afternoon. A cold front continued to advance south
through the area, cutting southwest to northeast across Yoakum County
to Hall County at 3 pm. Ongoing shower activity across the far
southwest Texas Panhandle and western South Plains has generated
mainly light amounts of rain so far today, but as the activity
progresses south and east and encounters a more moist and unstable
environment, we will look for stronger storms with heavier rainfall
rates. The strongest upper-level winds are in a belt running from
southwest Texas northeast through the Texas Panhandle, with higher
values of deep-layer shear residing across our western and northern
zones, somewhat displaced from the best instability. Still, it
appears there is a zone of moderate CAPE/shear overlap running from
the southern South Plains into the southeast Texas Panhandle, along
either side of a line from Tahoka to Childress. There is the
potential for a few severe t-storms with hail up to 1 inch and 60 mph
wind gusts in this area late this afternoon - slowly shifting
southeast into the Rolling plains with time following the track of
the front.

Tonight, shower and thunderstorm activity will continue across the
area as the low-level jet feeds moisture into the area above the
sloping frontal zone as the surface fronts sags into the Permian
Basin. Some locally heavy rainfall of an inch to two inches will be
possible across our southern counties, with a bit of uncertainty on
the northern extent of the heavy rain threat - it looks like the
bulk of the heavy rain will be south of Lubbock, although some
spotty heavy rain reports may accompany the stronger thunderstorm
cells farther north. Cooler and drier low-level air will continue to
filter into the area Thursday morning, reducing instability.
However,divergent flow aloft will maintain upward motion and keep a
chance of showers going, especially western and southern areas. With
plenty of cloud cover, temps are only expected to make it into the
lower 60s across the west while partial clearing may nudge temps into
the low 70s in the Rolling Plains.

.LONG TERM...
Meridional upper ridge is still shown to envelop the eastern half of
our forecast area by Thu evening all downstream of a stacked low in
southern Arizona. Favorable axis of diffluence aloft will be poised
from the Davis Mountains north through eastern NM during this time
while serving to focus the brunt of precip chances in those regions.
Farther east, ascent trends more hostile near the ridge which is
reasoning for our sharper gradient in PoPs. As the upper low
mobilizes northeast toward the Four Corners on Fri and Sat, the axis
of upper diffluence is progged to reorient itself from a meridional
orientation to more SW-NE while lifting north. This will likely keep
additional rain chances confined to our western zones with ascent
still lacking farther east, but with such rich moisture and
lingering clouds remaining, we have kept the earlier low chances of
precip as far east as the Rolling Plains. Setup still has some
potential for foggy nights and mornings under very low stratus and
narrow dewpoint depressions, but will keep mention out until models
show better consistency.

By Sat night, models are consistent with cyclonic SW flow
overspreading the region courtesy of a kicker wave upstream of the
filling upper low. Abundance of moisture (PWs over 1 inch) with
these steady height falls and deeper ascent check all the boxes for
a more definitive precip event with thunder to boot. Progressive
nature to this forcing should keep any heavy precip threat transient
and reduced in coverage. Would expect some drying of the column from
west to east late Sun in the wake of the trough axis, before some
resaturation ensues with another wave reloading the larger scale
trough progged to evolve into another closed low near or south of
the CWA by the middle of next week. Our area appears to fall on the
subsidence side of this broader trough axis, so PoPs were trimmed
back gradually to account for a more southerly low track.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

33/93

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
418 AM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

TXZ021>044-030930-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
418 AM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING
PLAINS AND THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG OR BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
SOUTH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. HAIL TO ONE
INCH DIAMETER ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM A
FEW STORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL IMPROVE AREA-WIDE LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
407 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

TXZ037-043-022145-
DICKENS TX-KENT TX-
407 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN KENT AND SOUTH CENTRAL
DICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 407 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES NORTHWEST OF CLAIREMONT...OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF SPUR...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPUR...JAYTON...GIRARD AND CLAIREMONT.

LAT...LON 3315 10103 3337 10104 3360 10066 3313 10056
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 241DEG 22KT 3328 10089

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