Severe Thunderstorm Warning 244, NWS Lubbock, TX

586 
WWUS54 KLUB 062244
SVSLUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
544 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

TXC269-433-062253-
/O.CAN.KLUB.SV.W.0244.000000T0000Z-161006T2300Z/
STONEWALL TX-KING TX-
544 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN STONEWALL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KING COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS AND DOES NOT SHOW SIGNS OF RE-INTENSIFYING...THEREFORE THE
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3326 10020 3326 10052 3340 10052 3349 10018
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 239DEG 10KT 3337 10040 

$$

MCZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
352 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...

Storms already staring to fire across the northern Rolling Plains in
a region of MLCAPE values around 3500 J/kg and bulk shear values
between 25 to 35 knots.  This in an airmass that has dewpoints in
the mid 60s which taper off into the mid 50s as you approach the
edge of the Caprock.  A broad dryline mixing zone then exists on the
Caprock where dewpoints gradually drop into the low to mid 30s over
the northwestern South Plains.  This is indicative of poor
convergence across the dryline mixing zone and may keep storms from
firing along and west of US 87/I-27.  However, mesoanalysis graphics
shows that there is still ample instability and bulk shear extending
as far southeast as Lubbock so cannot totally rule out storms
developing in and around the city then moving off to the northeast.
Temperatures aloft will cool with time which will only help to
increase instability and also provide an environment favorable for
hail development, and somewhat low bulk shear may also help increase
the downburst threat as well.

Next issue will be the arrival of the cold front shortly before
midnight into the northern zones of the forecast area.  Models
continue to be in very good agreement with the timing and have it
clearing our southern zones by around 09Z/4 am CDT. What they don't
have good agreement on is whether additional convection will
develop westward as the deeper moisture/retreating dryline moves
west ahead of the front. A few of the models do develop additional
storms again near Lubbock but the majority keep most of the
convection across the southern Rolling Plains in the early morning
hours. Tried to reflect this scenario in the weather grids as the
6-hourly PoP grids are not well suited to reflect the rapid pace
of the front and storm development. PoPs will increase a bit this
evening as coverage could increase then start to decrease from
north to south with the frontal timing. We should also see a
transition more from thunderstorm activity to showers as the best
instability and lift slides south of the forecast area.

Last issue will be cloud cover and how this may impact temperatures
through the day Friday.  It will be a cloudy, cool, and breezy start
to the day before we start to see clouds erode from north to south
across the area.  A few models however are keeping low clouds across
the area through the afternoon as a region of good isentropic lift
develops across the southern third of the forecast area.  Strong
fronts this time of year bring a mixed bag when it comes to low
cloud cover, sometimes we can keep clouds in all day and others we
see them erode as drier air moves in at the surface.  Will hang on
to mostly cloudy skies through most of the day and being clearing
them out from northeast to southwest, and hang on to higher
percentage of cloud cover over the southwestern South Plains.  High
temperatures will then depend on how fast the cloud cover will erode
but we will see highs 10 to 15 degrees below normal across the area.
Wind speeds will also gradually decrease through the day.

Jordan

.LONG TERM...

Winds will be settling down, and we will be continuing to dry out
tomorrow night after the most recent cold front. Cloud cover may be
a little pesky in clearing, so overnight lows may stay a tad warmer
into the 40s, though it's not entirely out of the question for a few
a few outlying areas across the northwestern zones to dip briefly to
the upper 30s if the clouds are able to clear far enough south.
Otherwise, moisture will return for the latter half of the weekend
along a weak trough moving out of the Baja of California towards NM.
Sunday, especially Sunday afternoon, looks to give the best rain
chances. Past this, drier air settles in with weak short waves
clipping us to the north on Wednesday, possibly Friday...but with
little to no effect.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

14/74

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1123 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

TXZ021>044-071100-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1123 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING
PLAINS AND THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM BROWNFIELD TO MEMPHIS. LARGE
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

JORDAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
404 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     HAIL             1 W KIRKLAND            34.39N 100.09W
10/06/2016  E1.00 INCH       CHILDRESS          TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1600337

JGD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
425 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             KIRKLAND                34.39N 100.07W
10/06/2016  E1.75 INCH       CHILDRESS          TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1600338

JGD