Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS Lubbock, TX

334 
WWUS54 KLUB 042228
SVSLUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
528 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2016

TXC369-042245-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0233.000000T0000Z-160904T2245Z/
PARMER TX-
528 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN PARMER COUNTY...

AT 528 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER RHEA...OR 12
MILES WEST OF FRIONA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS ARE EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RHEA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3475 10280 3461 10280 3463 10304 3475 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 264DEG 12KT 3467 10293 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JORDAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
334 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Tonight is expected to be as uneventful as last night. Some
thunderstorms will be possible into the late evening hours across
our extreme northwestern zones, however coverage is expected to be
minimal if we do see any showers or thunderstorms make it across the
state line. Some CU has developed in eastern NM over the past couple
of hours along a surface trof. This trof is not expected to move
much as the upper level flow is mostly parallel to the trof.

Across the rest of the forecast area, clouds have thinned out giving
way to sunshine. This trend should continue into the evening.
Another batch of fog and low stratus may develop on the caprock
tonight and last into tomorrow morning. Dewpoints remain high and
surface flow is expected to be out of the south to southeast once
again. Any fog that develops should be gone by the late morning to
early afternoon as winds take a more south-southwesterly direction
and increase to near 20 mph as a lee trof deepens to our northwest.

Aldrich

.LONG TERM...
Mid to late week remains a challenge with potential rain chances,
as a fairly interesting and changing pattern unfolds in the
region. A relatively "dry" airmass, at least by standards of the
recent past three weeks, will still be holding on late Monday
though on the verge of being inundated with another slug of deep
tropical/subtropical moisture pushing northward into the region,
courtesy of a slowly building upper ridge over the lower
Mississippi Valley, an upper level in the west, and an intensifying
tropical system moving north by northwest into the Gulf of
California region on Tuesday. The result will be improving deep
layered moisture northward through eastern New Mexico and the
western South Plains and Panhandle by late Tuesday, while the
WRF/NAM remains insistent and so not yet unreasonable (thus not
yet considered an outlier) that moisture will improve Tuesday
central zones as well. Solid chance mention of thunder will spread
into mainly western areas late Tuesday and Tuesday night with
Precipitable Water levels exceeding 1.50 inches supporting a
possibility of efficient rainfall.

On Wednesday, the tropical system is expected to be in the
northern Gulf or western Sonora state area, still lifting north,
while an elongated upper ridge stretches far southwest through
northern Mexico and much of central and southwest Texas. But
solutions retain a significant moisture surge bending across the
Panhandle and at least northern South Plains while cyclonic
curvature covers the entire northern tier with a notable 300
millibar Jet passing just barely by across the northern Panhandle
and central plains, near enough for at least a very good or likely
consideration of rain/thunder into our area. Actually, St. Louis'
University CIPS analogs paint the Unified Mean Precipitation
Maximum near a half inch directly over our area southwest to
northeast, in good agreement with Superblended probabilities
though just a touch further south. We have adjusted the SB
therefore slightly south as well with the total precipitation
forecast, and this thinking extends into Thursday as well, with
precipitation perhaps waning a bit and a bit further south. But
the elongated ridge axis to our south will likely present a sharp
delineation on rain/no rain not too far to our south. We should
remain very moist Thursday and it won't take much surface warming
to generate showers.

A second upper trough cruising the northern tier Friday is
expected to drape a cold front southward into the area by late in
the day, and with plenty of remaining moisture will lead to
increasing precipitation chances with arrival of that front. But
we have questions in ultimate timing and strength of the push of
this front. For now, following reasonably close to SB for most
features with best rain chances late Friday into early Saturday.
The tropical plume of moisture may hang on through at least the
early part of next weekend, or could bend east. Too hard to tell
at this point. But leaning towards a drying trend late next
weekend. RMcQueen

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

51/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
436 AM CDT SUN SEP 4 2016

TXZ021>044-050945-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
436 AM CDT SUN SEP 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER.