Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Lubbock, TX

680 
WWUS54 KLUB 160027
SVSLUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
727 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

TXC433-160045-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0227.000000T0000Z-160716T0045Z/
STONEWALL TX-
727 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL STONEWALL COUNTY...

AT 726 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER OLD
GLORY...OR 9 MILES EAST OF ASPERMONT...AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OLD GLORY AND US-380 NEAR THE HASKELL-STONEWALL COUNTY LINE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3304 10006 3328 10013 3334 9999 3304 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 184DEG 4KT 3316 10006 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

01

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
350 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...
The primary focus this period revolves around thunderstorm chances
later this afternoon and particularly tonight. At 20Z, a diffuse
quasi-stationary boundary was still apparent in visible satellite
and surface observations stretching from the Permian Basin to North
Texas. The cumulus field near this boundary was bubbling in places
and could be the focus for isolated shower/storm development this
afternoon into early this evening. Additionally, isolated to widely
scattered convection may also attempt to form in a surface trough
from the western Texas Panhandle in eastern New Mexico. If any of
this late afternoon convection materializes moderate instability and
a deeply mixed and hot boundary layer could support damaging wind
gusts and brief occurrences of marginally severe hail.

Of greater concern is convection that is already well underway from
southeast Colorado into the higher terrain of New Mexico. This
activity will translate southeastward within northwest flow aloft
and will likely grow upscale into a complex/line as it moves into an
increasing southerly LLJ tonight. It would appear the northern and
northeast zones will have the best prospects of being impacted by
this MCS, though the southwest flank of the MCS could attempt to
develop into the central and perhaps even the southwestern zones
through the mid-late evening hours. The primary risk with this line
of storms will be strong/damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain.
PoPs have been boosted accordingly and favor the
northern/northeastern zones before 06Z and the central/eastern zones
from 06-12Z. A few elevated showers and storms could then persist
after daybreak Saturday as the shortwave trough that aids the
evening and overnight convection lingers overhead. Drier and breezy
southerly winds will follow Saturday afternoon as a surface trough
deepens in the lee of the Rockies. The drying atmosphere will limit
storm chances locally Saturday afternoon/evening with the best
chances tied to the higher terrain of New Mexico and perhaps a
surface trough that will likely reside off to our west as well.

Temperatures tonight should be a little warmer than this morning,
mostly from the mid-60s to lower 70s, though a strong cool pool from
overnight convection could have something to say about that. Plenty
of afternoon insolation, climbing 850 mb temperature and a subtle
increase in 1000-500 mb thickness will support a slight uptick in
highs, with most spots topping out near the 100 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...
The interminable dome of heat centered over the New Mexico
bootheel at the beginning of the extended will only intensify and
broaden its impact through next week. Earlier model runs had
depicted a near 600 decameter high center over the Central Plains
near Kansas City but now they want to place it more over the
Southern Plains closer to home. Heights aren't nearly as large
either but still in the 597-599 range with 850 mb temperatures
nearby pushing 29C for much of the period. One difference from
the previous heat wave that spanned much of the first 14 days of
the month is mid level temperatures are forecast to be some 4-5C
cooler as we dwell on the underside of the ridge. Whether this
translates into appreciably less heat remains to be seen, though
do see more easterly low level winds on Monday and Tuesday
helping to keep some of the most intense heat in check early in
the week. Overall have leaned toward the upper end of the ensemble
MOS numbers close to or above the century mark throughout, based
on the scant precipitation of late and ability of the boundary
layer to dry and heat up. Also any more southwesterly component to
the wind on days when the lee side surface trough works east
across the South Plains should help raise temps a degree or two
more. POP values in this ridge pattern remain very low from Sunday
on as a strong subsidence inversion dominates with monsoon
moisture displaced well west over the deserts.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

23/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1122 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

TXZ021>044-161630-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1122 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING
PLAINS AND THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY FORM INTO A
LINE AND SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...WITH ISOLATED
POCKETS OF HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A MULESHOE
TO LUBBOCK TO GUTHRIE LINE WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
121 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     13 W TAHOKA             33.16N 102.02W
07/14/2016                   LYNN               TX   FIRE DEPT

            13 LARGE TRANSMISSION POLES BLOWN DOWN 1 MILE NORTH OF
            INTERSECTION OF FM 179 AND US 380

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1600302

SCOBB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
138 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     WILDFIRE         13 SE TAHOKA            33.03N 101.64W
07/14/2016  E250 ACRE        LYNN               TX   FIRE DEPT

            LIGHTNING STARTED A WILDFIRE ABOUT 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
            DRAW THURSDAY EVENING. SIZE ESTIMATED AT 200 TO 300
            ACRES. THE TIME OF THE FIRE START WAS ESTIMATED. THE
            FIRE WAS PUT OUT BY 1 AM... BUT HAS SINCE REIGNITED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1600303

GDS