Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Lubbock, TX

506 
WWUS54 KLUB 052347
SVSLUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
647 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

TXC153-189-437-060000-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0199.000000T0000Z-160706T0000Z/
FLOYD TX-SWISHER TX-HALE TX-
647 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN FLOYD...SOUTH CENTRAL SWISHER AND EASTERN HALE
COUNTIES...

AT 646 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HALE CENTER...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PLAINVIEW...HALE CENTER...KRESS...AIKEN...SETH WARD AND EDMONSON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3396 10186 3414 10197 3439 10186 3432 10156
      3390 10146
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 226DEG 24KT 3414 10181 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
356 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Water vapor imagery shows drier mid and upper level air has advected
into much of the area behind the well-defined shortwave trough
across eastern Kansas/Oklahoma. Strong storms continue to form on
the edge of the remnant deeper moisture across the Permian Basin and
far southern South Plains along an outflow boundary from storms
earlier this morning. The remnant boundary also curls northward into
the southern Texas Panhandle where visible imagery/radar indicates
growing cumulus field and struggling showers, likely as a result of
the deeper/drier air noted above. Expect isolated storms to continue
to develop in both these areas through the late afternoon with
movement toward the east. As indicated by SPC, mesoscale models have
been consistent in maintaining storms across the South Plains into
the Rolling Plains through the evening with the best concentration
anticipated  along the southern end of the boundary from Brownfield
to Jayton. Have maintained Isolated mention of storms through
midnight generally east of U.S. 385. Boundary layer mixing above 600
mb yields a strong inverted-V sounding so strong surface wind gusts
will be the main concern with the storms.

With the lack of a well-defined forcing mechanism like we had last
night and an overall drier airmass do not anticipate storms being as
apt to maintain themselves overnight. However another shortwave, now
positioned across the Desert Southwest will move toward the region
on Wednesday which should draw deeper moisture to our southwest
northward through the day Wednesday. Short range models however are
in agreement on 700 mb temps warming another 0.5-1 degree from today
which will make convective temperatures even more difficult to
achieve, especially on the Caprock where lower surface dewpoints
will exist. With warmer temps aloft forecast, have sided closer to
warmer guidance numbers which pushes a good part of the South Plains
close to Heat Advisory criteria. Temperatures off the Caprock also
likely to combine with higher dewpoints to push heat index values
into the 105-110 degree range. A Special Weather Statement was
issued earlier to highlight the excessively hot conditions which
look to land just below Advisory criteria. Slight chance POPs also
remain in the forecast for Wednesday with approaching shortwave,
increase in mid/high level moisture, steep mid-level lapse rates and
convergence along a surface trough.

.LONG TERM...
Little change in the hot and dry conditions Thursday as massive
anticyclone remains stretched just to our south. An upper level
trough swinging by to the north should tighten the surface
pressure gradient and may lead to enhanced downslope component on
the Caprock anyway. Its possible temperatures may need to be
ramped further upwards for Thursday. The very intense heating with
marginal moisture is still enough for a slim mention of very high
based thunderstorms late in the day once again.

By Friday, a weakness in the upper ridge still appears likely to
be exploited by decreasing upper heights across the southern high
plains and a slight increase in mid and upper level moisture. Mid
level temperatures will cool 2 to 3 degrees centigrade which
should be somewhat more favorable for thunder chances. Solutions
suggest we may see two or three weak upper troughs slide through
our area supporting an increase of thunder mention into the low
chance category from Friday. Surface temperatures also are likely
to tail off back into the 90s by the weekend anyway. Friday may
see one more day with fairly widespread near 100 degree readings.

The pattern has become a little less clear again for the early to
middle part of next week. The northwest coast will continue with a
progression of Pacific waves that the long range solutions are
struggling with timing. In general, we expect to see increased
upper level heights again as the weakness in our region moves
off, but it's unclear if we will be squarely beneath an upper
ridge or within slightly lowered heights in southwest flow aloft.
We have opted for a persistent forecast for now featuring slightly
above normal temperatures early to mid week with minimal thunder
mention. RMcQueen

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

24/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
601 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

TXZ021>044-062315-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
601 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING
PLAINS AND THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

INTENSE SURFACE HEATING WILL HELP DRIVE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE...HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOCAL WIND GUSTS FROM
50 TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER ARE POSSIBLE FROM
THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE
HOTTEST HIGH TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
514 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     HAIL             5 S WOLFFORTH           33.44N 102.01W
07/05/2016  E1.00 INCH       LUBBOCK            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1600270

JGD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
526 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     HAIL             7 SW LUBBOCK            33.50N 101.96W
07/05/2016  E0.25 INCH       LUBBOCK            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1600271

JGD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
528 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     HAIL             7 SW LUBBOCK            33.50N 101.96W
07/05/2016  M1.00 INCH       LUBBOCK            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1600272

JGD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
530 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     HAIL             LUBBOCK                 33.58N 101.88W
07/05/2016  E1.00 INCH       LUBBOCK            TX   METEOROLOGIST

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1600273

JGD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
548 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     HAIL             LUBBOCK                 33.58N 101.88W
07/05/2016  E1.00 INCH       LUBBOCK            TX   METEOROLOGIST

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1600274

JGD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
617 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

TXZ029-030-052345-
HALE TX-FLOYD TX-
617 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL FLOYD AND EASTERN
HALE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 616 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ABERNATHY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PLAINVIEW...LOCKNEY...PETERSBURG...AIKEN AND SETH WARD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3383 10182 3391 10194 3428 10167 3408 10136
      3383 10162
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 222DEG 32KT 3391 10178