Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 194, NWS Lubbock, TX

July 2, 20164 counties in Texas

NWS Lubbock, TX issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 2, 2016, 5:55 PM CDT for 4 counties in Texas. It was in force for 50 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 2, 2016, 5:55 PM CDT (22:55 UTC)
Expired
Jul 2, 2016, 6:45 PM CDT
In force
50 min
Issued by
NWS Lubbock, TX
Area
Storm-based polygon
Hail
0.75 in
Wind
70.0 mph

Counties Briscoe County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Hall County, TX, Motley County, TX

The radar

The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 122 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2016-07-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 62 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2016-07-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 121 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
62 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-173 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1569 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
121 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
113 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 2, 3:55 PM CDT, 2 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 2, 3:55 PM CDT, 2 hours before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
355 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Weak synoptic forcing associated with upper-level trough over the
southern high plains is beginning to interact with mid-level
subtropical moisture plume and low-level differential heating to
aid in scattered convective development. Meanwhile, environmental
profiles from observed and forecast soundings with PW values
between 1.5 and 2.0 inches suggest the threat for heavy rainfall.
However, this should be mitigated due to the pulse-type convection
and cell motion of 30 to 35 mph. Furthermore, can't rule out some
small hail, perhaps no larger than peas, but only with the
strongest storms. Exiting upper trough and loss of heating will
bring an end to convection tonight.

A weak cold front will traverse the southern forecast area on Sunday
bringing the possibility of post-frontal convection during the
afternoon/early evening across the far southeastern TX Panhandle and
eastern rolling plains. JH

.LONG TERM...
Guidance continues to suggest some lingering t-storm activity
Sunday evening along the weakening frontal zone running approx.
from the northern Permian Basin northeastward into srn OK. Also, a
small vortmax rolling southeast out of Colorado may generate a
cluster of storms which could approach our northwest counties by
late evening or even after midnight - although we have kept PoPs
below mention for now.

Other than that, it looks like most of us will need supply our
own fireworks on Independence Day as Mother Nature may not put on
any atmospheric displays. An upper ridge building in from the west
should suppress most convection. The exception may be found across
the southeast TX Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains where moist
east winds may interact with slightly cooler temps aloft.
Temperatures will be pretty toasty with highs in the upper 90s to
103 or so. Hot temperatures will continue Tuesday and Wednesday as
the upper ridge broadens across Texas. Just enough moisture will
be around for a slight chance of afternoon and evening t-storms.
The activity Tue and Wed should be pretty isolated, but may
increase in coverage Thursday as the upper-ridge axis flattens and
shifts east in the face of a shortwave trough moving through the
southern Rockies. Some entrainment of sub-tropical moisture in
this pattern is also expected to help the rain chances. Temps are
also expected to cool slightly Thursday and a little more by
Friday. The ridge may rebuild somewhat over the region next
weekend as a deeper trough moves through the western states.
However, the ridge may not be strong enough to inhibit all t-storm
activity.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

02/33
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 2, 6:02 AM CDT, 11 hours 53 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
602 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

TXZ021>044-031100-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
602 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING
PLAINS AND THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE CAPROCK
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ENTERING THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING. IN ADDITION TO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS...THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

JORDAN

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 2, 5:09 PM CDT, 46 minutes before
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Local storm report, Jul 2, 5:34 PM CDT, 21 minutes before
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Local storm report, Jul 2, 5:36 PM CDT, 19 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Jul 2, 5:41 PM CDT, 14 minutes before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Lubbock, TX issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 2, 5:41 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLUBBriscoe49 min
Jul 2, 6:39 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLUBHall36 min
Jul 2, 6:54 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLUBStonewall36 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Texas, 2016Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.