Severe Thunderstorm Warning 176, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
641 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.AVIATION...
Isolated thunderstorms in the vicinity of KCDS should pass within
the first hour or two of the TAF period. Otherwise expecting VFR
conditions overnight. Small chance for development of fog again
Wednesday morning near KLBB and KPVW. Have left mention out, and
will monitor for later forecasts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/

SHORT TERM...
230 Radar and WTXM observations show a pretty well-defined wind
shift/dryline running from east of Tulia, to west of Roaring
Springs, then back southwest to between Tahoka and Brownfield. In
the past 1/2 hour, this boundary has been nearly stationary, with a
hint of a mesoscale cyclonic circulation over the central South
Plains and backed winds in the Caprock Canyons area. Despite being
tempted to pull PoPs back a bit farther to the west where the
boundary is located, we will maintain them across the eastern and
southern Rolling Plains where deeper moisture is present per
RAP/cumulus field. The latest high-res model guidance is still
suggesting isolated t-storm development within the next several
hours to the east of the dryline. The current temp/dewpoint at
Aspermont is 92 over 73. Not only is this resulting in sultry
conditions - Heat Index of 102F -but also stronger MLCAPE than
previously indicated with MLCAPES estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg
range. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be a threat with any
storms that develop, along with locally heavy rainfall. With the
lack of upper-level support, storms should die off before midnight
across the forecast area, leaving a warm and muggy night for most as
the dryline retreats back northwest through all but the far western
South Plains and far southwest Texas Panhandle.

On Thursday, A weak shortwave trough will advance from California
into the southern Rockies. Model guidance is showing some jet energy
approaching the region from the southwest during the day. Some lift
with this modest jet combined with strong daytime heating is
expected to produce some afternoon t-storm activity. Current
indications are that storms will develop and expand from southeast
New Mexico and the western Permian basin into the southern and
central South Plains, with some uncertainty for far north and east
the activity will progress. Forecast soundings suggest that the
storms will likely be on the dry side of the moisture gradient, with
less CAPE to work with and a lower severe threat. However, the high-
based activity may pose a strong wind threat with dry microburst-
type downdrafts. Also, if the storms continue into early evening
when the dryline retreats some and the low-level jet increases,
there may be a window for a severe storm or two with a hail and wind
threat.  The other story will be the hot temperatures, with highs in
the upper 90s to about 103 expected across the forecast area.

LONG TERM...
Shortwave ridging will keep warm weather in place late Wednesday,
but high res models are continuing trend of initiating thunderstorms
in SW-NE axis with chance pops (scattered storms) across much of the
South Plains...this apparently along mid level moist axis and
western edge of greater instability. Mostly dry beginning
Thursday although believe cannot rule out an isolated
storm...but will keep pops below mention at this time with rising
heights and increasing subsidence.

Hot and dry late this week, through the weekend, and into next
week. Friday appears to be the day that 500 mb heights will really
increase putting an end to even the most isolated of storms.
Guidance has been advertising well above normal temperatures...and
see no reason to doubt that. Upper ridge increases in strength
further by Saturday...to 596 dm or higher...centered over New
Mexico...and with weak N/NE mid upper flow...temps likely meet or
exceed the 100 degree mark. Not entirely sure why blended
temps/model guidance backs down on temps Sunday and Monday, but
even if we see slightly cooler readings, we are still looking at
temps in the 95-100 degree range. Not too confident with solutions
out beyond a week...but GFS moves ridge to Miss Valley by mid week
next week with some return moisture possible on back (west) side
of upper high pressure. Otherwise summertime heat will continue.
Forecast heat indices were several degrees below 110-115 values
needed for heat advisory or heat warning off the Caprock. James

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1140 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

TXZ021>044-151645-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1140 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS...MAINLY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LAKE ALAN HENRY TO PADUCAH.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL UP
TO GOLFBALL SIZE AND SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS TO AROUND 65 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOW, BUT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO MAY BRING
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
742 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0737 PM     HAIL             4 NNW GROW              33.86N 100.32W
06/14/2016  E1.25 INCH       COTTLE             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1600234

RCB