Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
316 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...

Challenging forecast ahead for tonight thanks to the outflow
boundary from last night's MCS that has stalled out across the South
Plains and southern Rolling Plains.  19Z surface analysis and KLBB
radar data who the outflow boundary roughly along a Muleshoe,
Abernathy, Lubbock, Tulia, to Aspermont line and it hasn't moved
much over the past hour.  Surface wind is starting to veer, now
indicating that the outflow boundary will likely not move much more
to the west with time.  East of the boundary, the Rolling Plains is
underneath a very stable airmass with no CU being detected on
visible satellite.  CU are starting to develop along and east of the
outflow boundary to the edge of the Caprock, while the western South
Plains has what appears to be a field of mid-level ACCAS or high-
based CU pushing in from New Mexico.  There was also a weak ACCAS
field over Lubbock around noon indicating at least some mid-level
instability was present.  Whether or not that instability will stay
around or if the mid-level warming in the forecast soundings will be
a key part of the forecast for storm initiation and maintenance
later tonight.

Models are pretty much all over the place with coverage, intensity,
and timing of any possible storms so confidence in how things will
unfold is pretty low.  Past experience leads me to believe that we
will see storms go up along or near the outflow boundary and storms
will try to organize along or near the boundary thanks to decent 0-
6km shear values expected to be between 30-40 knots.  Deep mixing
has resulted in inverted-V type soundings so the primary severe
weather threat will be damaging winds, although a few storms early
this evening may also contain hail up to golf ball size as CAPE
values range between 1500-3000 J/kg.  SPC mesoanalysis does show an
axis of 3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE values across the central forecast
area with little to no CIN in place.  Satellite and looking around
outside seems to indicate that there is at least some CIN in place
due to a lack of cloud development.  If storms develop and after the
initial hour or two, storm mode will likely be influenced by outflow
boundary interaction and storms could briefly stall out resulting in
locally heavy rainfall as well.  Precipitable water values are
between 1.25 inches so there is enough moisture present to support
brief heavy downpours as well.  Forecast PoPs could have been bumped
up into the 30-40 percent range for the central part of the forecast
area but confidence and uncertainty on how things will unfold
limited pops to around 20-24 percent.  Did go ahead and include
mention of severe for the 00-06Z time frame but dropped that off
afterwards as the boundary layer should have started to stabilize by
then.

Forecast for Tuesday still looks to be warmer than the past couple
of days as the dryline/surface trough mixes east resulting in
southwest to westerly winds at the surface.  Good downslope
component should help to push temps towards the century mark for the
region with some spots in the Rolling Plains reaching 102-103
degrees F.  Only thing that may limit how warm we get will be areas
that receive rainfall and evaporative cooling for any water left on
the surface.  No way to really forecast these microscale impacts and
have left the forecast highs fairly close to what the blends have
for the area.  Only other saving grace may be any high clouds that
are pulled over the area in southwest to westerly flow aloft,
however that will likely occur too late in the day to provide any
shade from the sun and keep temps from climbing as high as forecast.

Jordan

.LONG TERM...

We are one week away from the summer solstice, so it's no surprise
temperatures are warming up. Unfortunately, it seems our last week
of spring will be hotter than the average maximum temperatures we
see in July. The culprit? That pesky 500 MB dome of high pressure
that tends to develop this time of year, and it will be
exceptionally strong, especially towards the weekend when we see it
strengthen to 600 dam and expand across all of the desert SW and
into West Texas. The outer reaches of this dome will even affect the
Great Lakes by late Sunday. So, temperatures will be hot, triple
digit heat hot, and with this comes the other other dreaded
word...dry. We may have a small reprieve late Wednesday as a theta-e
axis sets up across eastern NM allowing just enough instability to
break out isolated convection. Models have not resolved weakly
forced convection as of late, so confidence is not terribly high for
Wednesdays precipitation. Nonetheless, left slight chance POPs in
for now.

The GFS has an interesting low retrograde across the
southeastern CONUS early next week, but the dome is so well
established by then that the low bounces right back. Other
solutions have the high so strong, this low doesn't even have a
chance to retrograde. No relief from the heat in the extended is
seen for now.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

14/74

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1134 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

TXZ021>044-141645-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1134 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING
PLAINS AND THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS STRETCHED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREATS DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WIDESRPEAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.

JORDAN