Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Lubbock, TX

772 
WWUS54 KLUB 112036
SVSLUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
336 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

TXC269-112044-
/O.CAN.KLUB.SV.W.0161.000000T0000Z-160611T2100Z/
KING TX-
336 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN KING COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS IS EXPECTED
TO STAY TO THE WEST IN CROSBY COUNTY THROUGH 4 PM. THEREFORE THE
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3351 10064 3357 10084 3383 10080 3382 10052
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 204DEG 5KT 3363 10074 

$$

TXC125-112100-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0161.000000T0000Z-160611T2100Z/
DICKENS TX-
336 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN DICKENS COUNTY...

AT 334 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
DICKENS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DICKENS AND HIGHWAY 82.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
A BUILDING. IN ADDITION...THIS STORM IS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN
AND MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. NEVER DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3351 10064 3357 10084 3383 10080 3382 10052
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 204DEG 5KT 3363 10074 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

23

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
307 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Unlike yesterday when storms struggled to develop, scattered
convection has had no trouble developing in a moderately unstable
and weakly capped environment. Most of the development to this point
was along and off the Caprock as of 1930Z, with the exception of a
few cells near O'Donnell. Weak wind fields have largely limited
storm organization, though MLCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg have
supported brief strong pulse-type multicells capable of producing
small hail and wind gusts to 50+ mph at times. Additionally, slow
storm motions and abundant moisture have supported some locally
heavy rainfall. NWP has not had a great handle on this weakly forced
convection that has developed in/near a relative weakness embedded
within a broad upper ridge. However the best guess is that the
convection (largely off) Caprock will gradually fade by early this
evening as the instability is consumed, while outflows from said
convection may help spark additional development as they push
westward onto the Caprock into largely untapped warm/unstable air.
We may even see higher terrain convection originating in eastern New
Mexico edge eastward into the western South Plains this evening. All
said, we expect the best storm coverage to shift from the eastern
zones currently to the central and western zones this evening. Some
convection could then linger well into the night or redevelop early
Sunday morning, similar to what has happened in the region the past
few days.

On Sunday we will see the mid-level weakness that has lingered
nearby finally exit off to the east as heights/thicknesses gradually
rise in advance of a storm system moving into California. This
creates some doubt regarding storm chances/coverage by Sunday
afternoon, but with a weak surface trough/dryline setting up near
the TX/NM border and moderate instability and minimal inhibition
progged near and east of the dryline by peak heating we could see
isolated to scattered storm development. If storms do form, a few
could again briefly become strong and produce locally heavy rain.
Given the uncertainty regarding CI we have favored lower PoPs
tomorrow, generally in the 20 to 30 percent range.

It will be hot again tomorrow, and the western zones, where somewhat
drier air may attempt to move in, could see readings make it into
the middle 90s, while highs elsewhere will be primarily in the lower
90s. Lows tonight will be mild, in the 60s and lower 70s, with
plenty of moisture and clouds in the region.

.LONG TERM...
Forecast toward hotter and drier is still on track for the
upcoming week. Shortwave upper ridging Monday to be interrupted
Tuesday by a shortwave trough ejecting across the central Plains.
The ridge will then rebuild, initially over the Plains states
midweek before retrograding to the Rockies and increasing in
strength by 6 to 8 DM with the ridge approaching 600 DM by next
weekend. Given presence of low level moisture, primarily off the
caprock, precipitation chances will be non-zero through the week.
Will maintain a slight chance mention Monday most of the area and
Tuesday off the caprock where low level moisture will get shunted.
From Wednesday through Saturday rain chances appear to be favored
across the Rolling Plains furthest from the center of the upper
high and where low level moisture is most likely to remain.
However, given low confidence at this time will keep chances below
the magical 15 percent. Highs near 100 likely by Wednesday and
possibly continuing through Friday. A unique evolution to the
upper pattern is progged late in the week with a cutoff upper low
progged to retrograde from the Ohio Valley to the Ozarks. This
could both drive a cold front through the forecast area Saturday
and weaken the grip of the upper ridge slightly. Thus, a brief
respite from the intense heat is possible. Will be interesting to
see if the models hold onto this evolution as we proceed through
the week.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

23/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1117 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

TXZ021>044-121630-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1117 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING
PLAINS AND THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW...THOUGH A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROAM THE AREA SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1251 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

TXZ026-111815-
CHILDRESS TX-
1251 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CHILDRESS COUNTY UNTIL
115 PM CDT...

AT 1250 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER CHILDRESS...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHILDRESS...TELL AND HIGHWAY 287.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3433 10019 3436 10042 3449 10042 3467 10040
      3461 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 1750Z 196DEG 24KT 3443 10028

23

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
150 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

TXZ025-111915-
HALL TX-
150 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HALL COUNTY UNTIL
215 PM CDT...

AT 149 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
TURKEY...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TURKEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3445 10058 3431 10067 3431 10089 3453 10090
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 197DEG 8KT 3434 10080

23

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
158 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

TXZ032-038-111930-
COTTLE TX-KING TX-
158 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COTTLE AND EASTERN
KING COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 157 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORM LOCATED OVER EASTERN KING AND FAR SOUTHEAST COTTLE
COUNTIES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY
RAIN AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN COTTLE
AND EASTERN KING COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 10024 3392 10023 3399 10005 3384 10005
      3383 10000 3340 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 227DEG 9KT 3360 10003

23

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
236 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

TXZ038-112000-
KING TX-
236 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KING COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 235 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OVER GUTHRIE AND MUCH OF KING COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GUTHRIE AND HIGHWAYS 114 AND 82.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3341 10041 3370 10048 3384 10000 3340 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 240DEG 16KT 3360 10030

23