Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
406 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...
s we get into the afternoon the forecast has still not become much
more clear(er). Currently non-severe convection has developed along
a surface boundary across the northern Rolling Plains and south-
central TX Panhandle. A few storms have tried to rise in strength
but most likely have only dropped pea size hail. Storm tops have
struggled (though not all have failed) to reach above 32kft AGL, but
storm top divergence has been decent (around 70 kts). Some storms
have also developed just east of the dryline in eastern NM, but
these storms have stayed out of the FA thus far. Farther west storms
have developed along the dryline and are very slowly moving
eastward. Being mostly clear of convection within our FA will allow
for instability to grow a bit more which will increase our chances
at seeing severe convection.

The AMA 18z sounding shows MLCAPE around 2400 J/kg and RAP mesoscale
analysis now has up to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE across our western zones.
CIN that was present earlier during the day as shown by the 18z MAF
sounding has dissipated. Once storms do develop/move into the FA they
have a high potential to become severe. Dry air in the mid/upper
levels, moderately high CAPE, and decent storm top divergence
potential via an upper level jet will make very large hail the main
severe threat. Damaging wind is also possible. The tornado potential
has dropped over the past few hours as surface winds have veered
instead of back which in turn has lowered low level directional
shear. This is not to say there is a zero tornado threat, but it is
not as high as previously thought earlier this morning when surface
winds were out of the southeast. Flooding will also be a possibility
this afternoon and evening as storm motion will be slow at 5-10 kts
at best. PWATS over 1 inch will only add to to the flooding
potential.

Storms will continue into the overnight hours while possibly having
a lull from midnight to the mid morning. Some storms may continue
across the eastern Rolling Plains into tomorrow morning in which
chance PoPs have been maintained in this area. More severe
convection, though not expected to be as big of a threat as we are
seeing today, will be possible again tomorrow afternoon/early
evening as the dryline sets up again in eastern NM and another mid
level disturbance moves across the region. Aldrich

.LONG TERM...
We made few changes for the period Monday evening into next
weekend. A slow moving upper trough will be in position to
maintain a moist and unstable environment. Solutions develop a
fair amount of convection in the area late tomorrow and appear to
congeal it into another MCS during the overnight. Confidence in
this particular mode of development remains not terrifically high
but is worthy of at least solid likely thunder mention favoring
our eastern areas again tomorrow night.

Little overall change on Tuesday with a potentially worked over
environment giving us little confidence for details. But overall
situation still warrants solid chance mention. An important addition
will be arrival of a cold front likely enhanced by outflow late
Tuesday. This justifies very high chance or likely mention across
the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Once more hard to know how
to modify the environment Wednesday, but chances will remain valid
at this point, with gradually lowering chances into Thursday as
the upper trough finally slides east with drier northerly flow to
follow. Cool late week with warming into the weekend seems valid.
RMcQueen

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for TXZ021>032.

&&

51/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
353 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

TXZ021>044-302100-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
353 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING
PLAINS AND THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. HAIL AS LARGE AS SOFTBALLS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...
AND BRIEF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.