Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Lubbock, TX

041 
WWUS84 KLUB 022000
RFWLUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
200 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016

TXZ021>023-027>029-030100-
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-160303T0100Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
200 PM CST WED MAR 2 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR FOR 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF
15 PERCENT OR LESS AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER...

* WIND...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH... 
  WITH STRONGER GUSTS. 

* HUMIDITY...BOTTOMING OUT AT AROUND 10 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

* FUELS...DRY.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP CAN SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR 
  BURNING IS DISCOURAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR ALREADY OCCURRING. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DRY FUELS...AND WARM TEMPERATURES
CAN CREATE RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
404 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...
A NOTABLE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE CLEARING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS
MORNING WILL SLING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BULK OF LIFT AND STRONG
WIND CORES ALOFT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. BUT THIS WAVE WILL DEEPEN
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE STEERING IT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. AND AN
INCREASE IN WINDS ALOFT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT MORE-SO OVER THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
ZONES. THE END RESULT WILL BE ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS ON
THE HIGH-END OF THE BREEZY OR LOW-END OF THE WINDY SPECTRUM AS WELL
AS PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S WHICH WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS FOR EARLY MARCH. BY TONIGHT ANOTHER PACIFIC-
TYPE COLD FRONT WILL DROP QUICKLY SOUTHWARD WITH A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLING IN BEHIND. WIND SPEEDS ALL-IN-ALL OVERNIGHT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY MODEST CONSIDERING. A COOLER MORNING CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE TRENDS WILL GET THURSDAY GOING. RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
TEMPS WILL HAVE A TEMPORARY COOL DOWN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THANKS TO A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE MORNING. EVEN
THOUGH THEY WILL BE COOLER TEMPS WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPS WILL BE EVEN WARMER ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING SETS IN OVERHEAD. A DEVELOPING LEE TROF ON FRIDAY MORNING
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY TO AID IN THE WARMING OF TEMPS. MIXING WILL DEFINITELY BE
PRESENT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BE A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE...20 TO 25
MPH SUSTAINED. A FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE LEE TROF FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER COOL DOWN. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TO
THE LOW 70 ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LEE TROF DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DEEP TROF FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BE THE START OF TWO
WINDY DAYS AS THE TROF/LOW GETS CLOSER TO THE FA. THE WINDIEST DAY
LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF
TIGHTENS THE HEIGHT FIELDS AT H700 AND H500 AND AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES JUST TO OUR NORTH.
WINDS COULD EASILY REACH ADVISORY LEVEL ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION WHICH IS FURTHER NORTH THAN THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE OTHER FORECAST INCONSISTENCY WITH THE
MODELS IS PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS EARLY YESTERDAY MORNING WHERE
HINTING AT DRYLINE CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WHERE THEY ARE NO
LONGER SHOWING SUCH. NOW THE CONSENSUS IS WRAP AROUND PRECIP
FOLLOWING A PACIFIC FRONT. TEMPS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE TOO
WARM FOR SNOW SO DON/T GET TOO EXCITED. ALDRICH

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ021>023-027>029.

&&

05/51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
407 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016

TXZ021>044-031015-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
407 AM CST WED MAR 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING
PLAINS AND THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH A VERY WARM AND
DRY AIRMASS AND DRY GRASSES WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON. LESS CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR SPREADING WILDFIRES AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.