Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Lubbock, TX

016 
WWUS84 KLUB 012100
RFWLUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
300 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

TXZ025-026-030>032-035>038-040>044-020200-
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-160202T0200Z/
HALL-CHILDRESS-FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
300 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING
EAST OF A LINE FROM BROWNFIELD TO SILVERTON FOR 20 FOOT WINDS OF
20 MPH OR MORE...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS AND A
HIGH FIRE DANGER...

* WIND...WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED
  BY A SECONDARY SHIFT TO WESTERLY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO
  40 MPH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  

* HUMIDITY...DROPPING TO NEAR 15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
  WHEN WINDS BECOME WESTERLY...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RAPIDLY
  MOISTEN TO NEAR 50 PERCENT.

* FUELS...EXTREMELY DRY.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP CAN SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR 
  BURNING IS DISCOURAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR ALREADY OCCURRING. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DRY FUELS...AND WARM TEMPERATURES
CAN CREATE RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

&&

$$

132 
WWUS84 KLUB 020021
RFWLUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

TXZ025-026-030>032-035>038-040>044-020130-
/O.CAN.KLUB.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-160202T0200Z/
HALL-CHILDRESS-FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
621 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR
MORE...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS AND A HIGH FIRE
DANGER...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ROLLING PLAINS IS BRINGING
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITIES ABOVE 15 PERCENT WILL PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THIS EVENING. THUS...THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELED. REGARDLESS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WITH HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD RAPIDLY GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
458 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...
STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT
INTO THE PLAINS STATES TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING.AS IT DOES...WE
WILL HAVE A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE 700MB
GRADIENT IS IN A RANGE SUPPORTIVE OF 35-40 MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 55-60 MPH. AS SUCH WE ARE
UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING WHICH WILL RUN FROM
NOON TILL 6 PM. WE ALSO CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL PROBABLY BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF VIRGA AND THAT COULD
EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

ALTHOUGH WE HAVE A HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT...WE WILL START OFF
THE DAY WITH RELATIVELY MILD SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS.   THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE SHARPLY AS A
PACIFIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  THE HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO ENTER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AROUND NOON AND THEN SPREAD
RAPIDLY EASTWARD.  THE HIGH WINDS SHOULD APPROACH A LUBBOCK TO
PLAINVIEW LINE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 PM AND CONTINUING EAST. WIND SPEEDS
OFF THE CAPROCK SHOULD BE BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...
COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE DEPARTING WIND STORM ON
TUESDAY LOOK ON TRACK. DRY LOWER LEVELS BUT AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH THE SLOPED FRONT OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES EARLY WEDNESDAY TO DEVELOP LIFT IN
THE 700 MB AREA...STILL CAPABLE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SUPPOSING
LIFT PERSISTS LONG ENOUGH TO SATURATE LOWER LEVELS AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT. EITHER WAY...ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST.
LATER WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN CHILLY WITH LIGHT WINDS WHILE MODEST
WARMING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY PERHAPS INTO FRIDAY.

SOLUTIONS ARE MORE WOUND-UP WITH THE NEXT BALL OF ENERGY EXPECTED
TO DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. AIRMASS SHOULD BE QUITE DRY IN LOWER LEVELS GOING IN. BUT
ASSUMING AGAIN THAT AT LEAST MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LIFT OCCURS AS
CURRENTLY INDICATED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WE CAN ACCEPT A
MINIMAL MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AS SPAT OUT
BY OUR BLENDED SOLUTIONS. CURRENT RUNS NOW SHOW POTENTIAL FOR
MODEST WARMING BY SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER CARVING-TYPE UPPER
TROUGH AND COOLING EARLY OF THE NEXT WEEK. SO...AN ACTIVE PATTERN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK ALTHOUGH LACKING MOISTURE AND THUS
POTENTIAL FOR MORE NOTABLE WEATHER. RMCQUEEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. BECAUSE OF
THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS...ANY FIRES THAT DO BREAK OUT WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD EXPLOSIVELY. SINCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH HUMIDITIES ALSO SLOW TO
RECOVER...WE WILL LET THE RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUE UNTIL MID
EVENING.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ025-026-030>032-035>038-040>044.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>041.

&&

04/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
601 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

TXZ021>044-020015-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
601 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ON MONDAY...A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND SUBJECT AREAS ON THE CAPROCK TO A POTENTIAL HIGH
WIND EVENT WITH SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 40 MPH. BLOWING
DUST IS ALSO LIKELY ON MONDAY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. A HIGH WIND
WATCH IS IN EFFECT MONDAY FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK...WHILE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.